Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Deere $DE FY24Q3
Q3 sales -17%, incl. Equipment Ops. -20%
(declines of -13% to -25%)
Net Income -42%, EPS -38%
YTD sales -11%, Net Income -25%
Cuts CF part of FY24 outlook
Net Income: $7.0bn (PY: $10.2bn; ~$35/share)
OCF: $6.0-6.5bn (was 7.0-7.25bn)
CapEx: $1.8bn (was $1.9bn) https://t.co/ZIHzMOp5iA
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Deere $DE FY24Q3
Q3 sales -17%, incl. Equipment Ops. -20%
(declines of -13% to -25%)
Net Income -42%, EPS -38%
YTD sales -11%, Net Income -25%
Cuts CF part of FY24 outlook
Net Income: $7.0bn (PY: $10.2bn; ~$35/share)
OCF: $6.0-6.5bn (was 7.0-7.25bn)
CapEx: $1.8bn (was $1.9bn) https://t.co/ZIHzMOp5iA
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Offshore
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Matt McGarry
Update: We have 3 spots left in the All Access program (and 383 people on the wait list)!
Apply below:
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Update: We have 3 spots left in the All Access program (and 383 people on the wait list)!
Apply below:
I have a confession.
I've been awful at marketing my coaching program and community for newsletter operators.
And now, there's just 5 spots left...
Let me explain:
We've turned down dozens of clients at my marketing agency (GrowLetter) because people can't afford it or we don't have the capacity for clients.
So, I created an alternative that's 10X less expensive...
A "done-with-you" service to help founders:
- Sell more sponsorships
- Grow their email list faster
- Convert subscribers into customers
- Get coaching and feedback from me
- Boost email engagement and deliverability
- And more...
It's called Newsletter Operator All Access.
There are over 100 members now, and 5 spots are left for new members in August and September.
Here's what's inside the program:
✅ 1on1 call with me.
✅ Bi-weekly group coaching call with me.
✅ Bi-weekly group coaching call on paid acquisition.
✅ Bi-weekly group coaching call on sponsorship sales with Katy Huff.
(Katy was the top salesperson at The Hustle. She's sold more newsletter ads than almost anyone.)
✅ Guest expert events and AMAs every month + access to all recordings.
Past and upcoming guests include:
- Tim Huelskamp - CEO of 1440
- Jason Pell - Former CTO at Agora
- Justin Moore - Founder of CreatorWizard
- Erika Burghardt - Head of Growth at 1440
- Ryan Heafy - Co-Founder and COO at 6 AM CITY
- Brad Wolverton - Editorial Director at The Hustle & HubSpot
✅ Access to my course, Newsletter Growth System, and future cohorts ($997+ value) for you and anyone on your team.
✅ An exclusive slack community of founders who have 10,243,000+ total active newsletter subscribers.
✅ And more...
As I said, we're only taking on 5 new members because I work with everyone 1on1.
Learn more and apply to join using the link below: tweet
Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
RT @HiddenValueGems: George Soros on position sizing 👇🏼
Quote of the day #65 https://t.co/j7I0ANDo3h
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RT @HiddenValueGems: George Soros on position sizing 👇🏼
Quote of the day #65 https://t.co/j7I0ANDo3h
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $FDS 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.96x
•10-Year Mean: 26.10x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.05%
•10-Year Mean: 4.01%
As you can see, $FDS appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~9% MORE in earnings per share & ~1% MORE in FCF per share***
Before we discuss valuation, let’s analyze why $FDS is a high-quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $522.10M
•Long-Term Debt: $1.24B
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 34.7%
•2020: 25.4%
•2021: 24.9%
•2022: 15.2%
•2023: 18.9%
•LTM: 20.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 58.9%
•2020: 47.5%
•2021: 41.8%
•2022: 33.8%
•2023: 31.7%
•LTM: 28.8%
$FDS has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $0.86B
•2023: $2.09B
•CAGR: 9.28%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $251.29M
•2023: $584.79M
•CAGR: 8.81%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $5.04
•2023: $14.55
•CAGR: 11.18%
$FDS consistent growth in revenues, free cash flow, & net income is impressive especially when you consider the company has increased its revenues & earnings annually since for +20 years
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 44.62M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 38.68M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~13.3%, $FDS increased its EPS by ~15.3% (assuming 0 growth)
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $1.32
•2023: $3.74
•CAGR: 10.97%
As you can see, $FDS is a quality business and the financials reflect its high % of recurring revenues 👌🏽
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~9% MORE in EPS & ~1% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $FDS has to grow earnings at an 11.98% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (11.98%) required growth rate:
2024E: $16.29 (12.0% YoY) *FY Aug
2025E: $17.43 (7.0% YoY)
2026E: $19.34 (11.0% YoY)
$FDS has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $FDS ends 2026 with $19.34 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
26x P/E: $502.84💵 … ~12.5% CAGR
25x P/E: $483.50💵 … ~10.3% CAGR
24x P/E: $464.16💵 … ~8.1% CAGR
23x P/E: $444.82💵 … ~5.9% CAGR
As you can see, $FDS appears to have attractive return potential if we assume at least 25x earnings (a multiple slightly below its 10-year mean, but may not be justified given its lower growth rate & excessively elevated multiple from 2020-2023 which skewed the average multiple higher)
Today at $404💵 $FDS appears to getting closer to a price where it will be a good consideration for investment
Similar to the last analysis, I’d get more interested in $FDS at $385💵 or at ~22.85x NTM earnings (5% below todays price) where I can reasonably anticipate double-digit CAGR potential with a 24x end multiple
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A sober valuation analysis on $FDS 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.96x
•10-Year Mean: 26.10x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.05%
•10-Year Mean: 4.01%
As you can see, $FDS appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~9% MORE in earnings per share & ~1% MORE in FCF per share***
Before we discuss valuation, let’s analyze why $FDS is a high-quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $522.10M
•Long-Term Debt: $1.24B
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 34.7%
•2020: 25.4%
•2021: 24.9%
•2022: 15.2%
•2023: 18.9%
•LTM: 20.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 58.9%
•2020: 47.5%
•2021: 41.8%
•2022: 33.8%
•2023: 31.7%
•LTM: 28.8%
$FDS has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $0.86B
•2023: $2.09B
•CAGR: 9.28%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $251.29M
•2023: $584.79M
•CAGR: 8.81%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $5.04
•2023: $14.55
•CAGR: 11.18%
$FDS consistent growth in revenues, free cash flow, & net income is impressive especially when you consider the company has increased its revenues & earnings annually since for +20 years
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 44.62M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 38.68M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~13.3%, $FDS increased its EPS by ~15.3% (assuming 0 growth)
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $1.32
•2023: $3.74
•CAGR: 10.97%
As you can see, $FDS is a quality business and the financials reflect its high % of recurring revenues 👌🏽
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~9% MORE in EPS & ~1% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $FDS has to grow earnings at an 11.98% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (11.98%) required growth rate:
2024E: $16.29 (12.0% YoY) *FY Aug
2025E: $17.43 (7.0% YoY)
2026E: $19.34 (11.0% YoY)
$FDS has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $FDS ends 2026 with $19.34 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
26x P/E: $502.84💵 … ~12.5% CAGR
25x P/E: $483.50💵 … ~10.3% CAGR
24x P/E: $464.16💵 … ~8.1% CAGR
23x P/E: $444.82💵 … ~5.9% CAGR
As you can see, $FDS appears to have attractive return potential if we assume at least 25x earnings (a multiple slightly below its 10-year mean, but may not be justified given its lower growth rate & excessively elevated multiple from 2020-2023 which skewed the average multiple higher)
Today at $404💵 $FDS appears to getting closer to a price where it will be a good consideration for investment
Similar to the last analysis, I’d get more interested in $FDS at $385💵 or at ~22.85x NTM earnings (5% below todays price) where I can reasonably anticipate double-digit CAGR potential with a 24x end multiple
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Loomis Sayles on Tencent Holdings $TCEHY US
Thesis: Tencent Holdings is well-positioned to leverage its dominant digital ecosystem in China for sustained long-term growth, despite near-term regulatory and economic challenges
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/IyzrDm4xuP
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Loomis Sayles on Tencent Holdings $TCEHY US
Thesis: Tencent Holdings is well-positioned to leverage its dominant digital ecosystem in China for sustained long-term growth, despite near-term regulatory and economic challenges
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/IyzrDm4xuP
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
$WMT Walmart Q2 FY25 (ending in July):
• Revenue +5% Y/Y to $169.3B ($1.9B beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.67 ($0.02 beat).
• Walmart US comp sales +4%.
• E-commerce +21% Y/Y.
• Advertising +26% Y/Y.
FY25 Guidance:
• Net sales +3.75% to 4.75% Y/Y (0.75% raise). https://t.co/Zb970ompZc
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$WMT Walmart Q2 FY25 (ending in July):
• Revenue +5% Y/Y to $169.3B ($1.9B beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.67 ($0.02 beat).
• Walmart US comp sales +4%.
• E-commerce +21% Y/Y.
• Advertising +26% Y/Y.
FY25 Guidance:
• Net sales +3.75% to 4.75% Y/Y (0.75% raise). https://t.co/Zb970ompZc
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Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Not obvious, but Japanese Yen is weaker vs. a year ago
15-Aug-23: $/¥ = 146
15-Aug-23: $/¥ = 149 https://t.co/xEaibM58fM
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Not obvious, but Japanese Yen is weaker vs. a year ago
15-Aug-23: $/¥ = 146
15-Aug-23: $/¥ = 149 https://t.co/xEaibM58fM
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