Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Tim Walz has been selected as the Democratic VP nominee.
Here’s a link to our estimates of his net worth and portfolio:
https://t.co/bHqReWxvNx https://t.co/DMZK9CyVWC
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BREAKING: Tim Walz has been selected as the Democratic VP nominee.
Here’s a link to our estimates of his net worth and portfolio:
https://t.co/bHqReWxvNx https://t.co/DMZK9CyVWC
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Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
The median intra-year drawdown since 1928 is -13%. The current drawdown is -8.5%.
In a way, it is the price for getting c.10% long-term returns from the stock market.
h/t @charliebilello https://t.co/s36t0kIWOW
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The median intra-year drawdown since 1928 is -13%. The current drawdown is -8.5%.
In a way, it is the price for getting c.10% long-term returns from the stock market.
h/t @charliebilello https://t.co/s36t0kIWOW
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $CRM 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.79x
•3-Year Mean: 36.36x
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.00%
•3-Year Mean: 3.85%
As you can see, $CRM appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~52% MORE in earnings per share & ~30% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $CRM is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $17.67B
•Long-Term Debt: $8.43B
$CRM has an excellent balance sheet, an A+ S&P Credit Rating & 413x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗
•2020: 1.2%
•2021: 0.9%
•2022: 0.8%
•2023: 2.5%
•2024: 8.2%
•LTM: 9.0%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2020: 0.5%
•2021: 10.8%
•2022: 2.9%
•2023: 0.4%
•2024: 7.0%
•LTM: 9.3%
$CRM return metrics are ok, although more recently trending in the right direction
REVENUES✅
•2014: $4.07B
•2024: $34.86B
•CAGR: 23.95%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $576.36M
•2024: $9.49B
•CAGR: 32.34%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $0.35
•2024: $8.22
•CAGR: 37.11%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 597.61M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 971.50M
By increasing its shares outstanding ~63%, $CRM diluted its EPS by ~38% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 76.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 18.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 15.3%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~52% MORE in EPS & ~30% MORE FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $CRM has to grow earnings at an 11.90% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.90%) required growth rate:
2025E: $9.90 (20.5% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $11.01 (11.2% YoY)
2027E: $12.58 (14.2% YoY)
$CRM has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $CRM ends 2027 with $12.58 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
25x P/E: $314.50💵 … ~12.3% CAGR
24x P/E: $301.92💵 … ~10.5% CAGR
23x P/E: $289.34💵 … ~8.6% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume >24x earnings for $CRM to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)
Today at $239.00💵 $CRM appears to be worthwhile consideration for investment especially when you assess the trajectory of the company’s FCF & Net Income margins (steadily trending higher with further room to expand)
To ensure some margin of safety, if there’s further weakness, it could be wise to piece into the position, for example:
Initiating ~50% of the position at ~$239💵 & adding a second tranche at ~$200💵 or at ~20x NTM earnings
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A sober valuation analysis on $CRM 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.79x
•3-Year Mean: 36.36x
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.00%
•3-Year Mean: 3.85%
As you can see, $CRM appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~52% MORE in earnings per share & ~30% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $CRM is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $17.67B
•Long-Term Debt: $8.43B
$CRM has an excellent balance sheet, an A+ S&P Credit Rating & 413x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗
•2020: 1.2%
•2021: 0.9%
•2022: 0.8%
•2023: 2.5%
•2024: 8.2%
•LTM: 9.0%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2020: 0.5%
•2021: 10.8%
•2022: 2.9%
•2023: 0.4%
•2024: 7.0%
•LTM: 9.3%
$CRM return metrics are ok, although more recently trending in the right direction
REVENUES✅
•2014: $4.07B
•2024: $34.86B
•CAGR: 23.95%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $576.36M
•2024: $9.49B
•CAGR: 32.34%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $0.35
•2024: $8.22
•CAGR: 37.11%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 597.61M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 971.50M
By increasing its shares outstanding ~63%, $CRM diluted its EPS by ~38% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 76.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 18.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 15.3%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~52% MORE in EPS & ~30% MORE FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $CRM has to grow earnings at an 11.90% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.90%) required growth rate:
2025E: $9.90 (20.5% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $11.01 (11.2% YoY)
2027E: $12.58 (14.2% YoY)
$CRM has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $CRM ends 2027 with $12.58 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
25x P/E: $314.50💵 … ~12.3% CAGR
24x P/E: $301.92💵 … ~10.5% CAGR
23x P/E: $289.34💵 … ~8.6% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume >24x earnings for $CRM to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)
Today at $239.00💵 $CRM appears to be worthwhile consideration for investment especially when you assess the trajectory of the company’s FCF & Net Income margins (steadily trending higher with further room to expand)
To ensure some margin of safety, if there’s further weakness, it could be wise to piece into the position, for example:
Initiating ~50% of the position at ~$239💵 & adding a second tranche at ~$200💵 or at ~20x NTM earnings
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
$UBER Uber Q2 FY24:
• Gross bookings +19% Y/Y to $40.0B.
• Trips +21% Y/Y to 2.8B.
• Revenue +16% Y/Y to $10.7B ($120M beat).
• Operating margin 7% (+10pp Y/Y).
• Adj. EBITDA +71% Y/Y to $1.6B ($70M beat).
Q3 FY24 guidance:
• Gross bookings ~$41.0B ($41.3B expected).
• Adjusted EBITDA ~$1.63B.
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$UBER Uber Q2 FY24:
• Gross bookings +19% Y/Y to $40.0B.
• Trips +21% Y/Y to 2.8B.
• Revenue +16% Y/Y to $10.7B ($120M beat).
• Operating margin 7% (+10pp Y/Y).
• Adj. EBITDA +71% Y/Y to $1.6B ($70M beat).
Q3 FY24 guidance:
• Gross bookings ~$41.0B ($41.3B expected).
• Adjusted EBITDA ~$1.63B.
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
📱📉 Buffett dumped half of his $AAPL stake.
What does the Oracle of Omaha know that we don't?
Dive deeper! 👇
https://t.co/7RmBVeL90P
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📱📉 Buffett dumped half of his $AAPL stake.
What does the Oracle of Omaha know that we don't?
Dive deeper! 👇
https://t.co/7RmBVeL90P
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Hidden Value Gems
RT @HiddenValueGems: Warren Buffett on building BRK’s cash pile (2024 meeting):
“I don’t mind at all, under current conditions, building the cash position. I think when I look at the alternative of what’s available, the equity markets, and I look at the composition of what’s going on in the world, we find it quite attractive.“
#BerkshireHathaway
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RT @HiddenValueGems: Warren Buffett on building BRK’s cash pile (2024 meeting):
“I don’t mind at all, under current conditions, building the cash position. I think when I look at the alternative of what’s available, the equity markets, and I look at the composition of what’s going on in the world, we find it quite attractive.“
#BerkshireHathaway
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Offshore
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Librarian Capital
"X sues major brands, ad industry group" (Axios)
"The lawsuit ... argues GARM 'conspired, along with dozens of non-defendant co-conspirators, to collectively withhold billions of dollars in ad revenue from Twitter'"
Now we can be sure Twitter lost "billions" of revenues https://t.co/caywIhULzN
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"X sues major brands, ad industry group" (Axios)
"The lawsuit ... argues GARM 'conspired, along with dozens of non-defendant co-conspirators, to collectively withhold billions of dollars in ad revenue from Twitter'"
Now we can be sure Twitter lost "billions" of revenues https://t.co/caywIhULzN
Scoop: @X sues major brands, ad industry group for antitrust https://t.co/VpPBJklljE tweet