⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $V 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.73x
•10-Year Mean: 28.11x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.20%
•10-Year Mean: 4.08%

As you can see, $V appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~18% MORE in earnings per share & ~3% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $V is a super business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $16.64B
•Long-Term Debt: $20.60B

$V has a great balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 31x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 27.5%
•2020: 21.4%
•2021: 24.2%
•2022: 30.7%
•2023: 33.7%
•LTM: 35.7%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.2%
•2020: 30.7%
•2021: 33.4%
•2022: 40.9%
•2023: 46.5%
•LTM: 48.5%

$V has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $11.78B
•2023: $32.65B
•CAGR: 10.73%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.55B
•2023: $19.70B
•CAGR: 22.68%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.90
•2023: $8.77
•CAGR: 16.52%

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.35
•2023: $1.87
•CAGR: 18.24%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 2.62B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.03B

By reducing its shares outstanding 22.5%, $V increased its EPS by 29% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 97.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 53.9%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% MORE in EPS & ~3% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $V has to grow earnings at an 11.87% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.87%) required growth rate:

2024E: $9.92 (13.1% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $11.09 (11.8% YoY)
2026E: $12.57 (13.3% YoY)

$V has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $V ends 2026 with $12.57 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

28x P/E: $351.96💵 … ~16.4% CAGR

27x P/E: $339.39💵 … ~14.5% CAGR

26x P/E: $326.82💵 … ~12.6% CAGR

25x P/E: $314.25💵 … ~10.8% CAGR

As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by its growth rate AND quality

I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:

“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”

$V is even trading at a valuation better than just a fair price

Today at $254💵 $V appears to be one of the best risk-reward opportunities in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Brandon Beylo
RT @marketplunger1: How it feels investing in junior mining companies. https://t.co/QA8QoztUJH
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AkhenOsiris
Fackman shoulda just bought Spotify.
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN

Mizuho at 20% for AWS per Jul 2nd note

3P providers in the 17-18% range

$AMZN BMO raises 2Q24 AWS growth rates to a Street high of 19% - Kaushik
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN

Yipit goes to 19% y/y for AWS

H/T @heartbreakout

$AMZN

Mizuho at 20% for AWS per Jul 2nd note

3P providers in the 17-18% range - AkhenOsiris
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⁠Brandon Beylo
Bro, this is the most out-of-pocket headline I've read in a while.

"CFO dies due to cardiac arrest, stock jumps 9%."

💀💀💀 https://t.co/dmEQyoP8GF
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Did you know Old Dominion Freight Lines $ODFL is more than just a trucking company?

They're also a REAL ESTATE powerhouse, owning vast land parcels across the country, so as a long-term shareholder of $ODFL you benefit from the value of the land (inflation hedge) & competitive advantage emanating from land ownership, among other things.

And here's the thing: land assets are typically valued on a balance sheet at original purchase price, not current market value as this is an objective amount that can easily be audited, whereas market value is subjective and may be difficult to determine.
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#stocks #investing #logistics #RealEstate
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⁠Brandon Beylo
What are the odds the Taliban IPOs their copper company via SPAC? https://t.co/ZleH9FwkoG
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AkhenOsiris
MSFT joins the megacap 10% correction off high...

AAPL very close (< $1)
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⁠Brandon Beylo
NGL I kinda love this setup in copper right now.

• Bombed-out sentiment
• Overextended on the downside
• Found support at the 200D MA

Seems like a decent R/R trade with a stop below yesterday's lows.

#copper https://t.co/4Y030crLzt
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AkhenOsiris
$JPM

FT:

JPMorgan has given employees of its asset and wealth management division access to a large language model the bank is calling LLM Suite, according to an internal memo seen by the Financial Times.

Executives told staff LLM Suite can help them with writing, idea generation and summarising documents. “Think of LLM Suite as a research analyst that can offer information, solutions and advice on a topic,” the memo told employees. It was signed by Mary Erdoes, head of JPMorgan’s asset and wealth management business in the memo, Teresa Heitsenrether, the bank’s chief data and analytics officer, and Mike Urciuoli, the asset and wealth management unit’s chief information officer. They described it as a “ChatGPT-like product” that was to be used for “general purpose productivity” to complement its other apps that handle sensitive financial information called Connect Coach and SpectrumGPT.

JPMorgan started introducing LLM Suite to pockets of the bank earlier this year and about 50,000 employees, or roughly 15 per cent of its staff, now have access to it, said a person familiar with the matter. The company does not disclose how many research analysts it employs. The rollout, which has not previously been reported, is one of Wall Street’s largest use cases for an LLM, especially one that has been built in-house. Morgan Stanley has partnered with OpenAI to use products for its wealth management business.
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