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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: ~3 weeks ago I shared my โ€œsober valuation analysis ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธโ€ on $ACN stating:

โ€œAs you can see, weโ€™d have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above its 10-year average & above whatโ€™s arguably justified given its growth rate)

Today at $306๐Ÿ’ต it appears that $ACN is a wonderful company trading at a fair price

Iโ€™d reconsider $ACN closer to $285๐Ÿ’ต or at ~22.78x forward estimates (~7% below todayโ€™s price) where I can possibly expect near double digit return potential assuming a 23x end multiple in 2026โ€

Since then, $ACN dropped ~7% & is currently trading at $285๐Ÿ’ต as my research suggested

Tomorrow I will share an updated analysis on $ACN ๐Ÿ’ฏ

#stocks #investing
_______

๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ."

A sober valuation analysis on $ACN ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 24.50x
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 23.98x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 5.42%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 5.20%

As you can see, $ACN appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~2% LESS in earnings per share & ~4% MORE in FCF per share๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $ACN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEETโœ…
โ€ขCash & Equivalents: $5.12B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $71.64M

$ACN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 174x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITALโœ…
โ€ข2018: 54.2%
โ€ข2019: 42.1%
โ€ข2020: 30.8%
โ€ข2021: 32.0%
โ€ข2022: 38.2%
โ€ข2023: 33.8%

RETURN ON EQUITYโœ…
โ€ข2018: 41.2%
โ€ข2019: 37.9%
โ€ข2020: 32.1%
โ€ข2021: 31.9%
โ€ข2022: 32.6%
โ€ข2023: 28.5%

$ACN has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2013: $28.56B
โ€ข2023: $64.11B
โ€ขCAGR: 8.42%

FREE CASH FLOWโœ…
โ€ข2013: $2.93B
โ€ข2023: $8.99B
โ€ขCAGR: 11.86%

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2013: $4.21
โ€ข2023: $11.67
โ€ขCAGR: 10.73%

SHARE BUYBACKSโœ…
โ€ข2013 Shares Outstanding: 713.34M
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 637.95M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $ACN increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)

PAID DIVIDENDSโœ…
โ€ข2013: $1.62
โ€ข2023: $4.48
โ€ขCAGR: 10.70%

MARGINSโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 32.6%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 15.8%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 10.9%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~2% LESS in EPS & ~4% MORE FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $ACN has to grow earnings at a 12.25% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (12.25%) required growth rate:

2024E: $12.17 (4.3% YoY) *FY August
2025E: $13.20 (8.5% YoY)
2026E: $14.83 (12.4% YoY)

$ACN has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโ€™s assume $ACN ends 2026 with $14.83 in EPS & see its CAGR potential a[...]
Offshore
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ RT @DimitryNakhla: ~3 weeks ago I shared my โ€œsober valuation analysis ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธโ€ on $ACN stating: โ€œAs you can see, weโ€™d have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above itsโ€ฆ
ssuming different multiples

25x P/E: $370.75๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~10.3% CAGR

24x P/E: $355.92๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~8.4% CAGR

23x P/E: $341.09๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~6.5% CAGR

22x P/E: $326.26๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~4.5% CAGR

As you can see, weโ€™d have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above its 10-year average & above whatโ€™s arguably justified given its growth rate)

Today at $306๐Ÿ’ต it appears that $ACN is a wonderful company trading at a fair price

Iโ€™d reconsider $ACN closer to $285๐Ÿ’ต or at ~22.78x forward estimates (~7% below todayโ€™s price) where I can possibly expect near double digit return potential assuming a 23x end multiple in 2026

#stocks #investing

Thank you @WisedelCapital for the request
___

๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A sober valuation analysis on $LVMH ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 21.91x
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 24.92x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 4.56%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 4.13%

As you can see, $LVMH appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% MORE in FCF per share ๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $LVMH is a high-quality business

*Financials In Euros โ‚ฌ*

BALANCE SHEETโœ…
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: โ‚ฌ11.29B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: โ‚ฌ11.33B

$LVMH has a strong balance sheet, reflected by its AA- S&P Credit Rating & 18.91x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITALโœ…
โ€ข2019: 16.6%
โ€ข2020: 10.2%
โ€ข2021: 18.9%
โ€ข2022: 21.2%
โ€ข2023: 21.0%

RETURN ON EQUITYโœ…
โ€ข2019: 21.5%
โ€ข2020: 12.8%
โ€ข2021: 28.9%
โ€ข2022: 28.0%
โ€ข2023: 26.7%

$LVMH has excellent return metrics, highlighting the companyโ€™s financial efficiency

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2013: โ‚ฌ29.02B
โ€ข2023: โ‚ฌ86.15B
โ€ขCAGR: 11.49%

FREE CASH FLOWโœ…
โ€ข2013: โ‚ฌ2.99B
โ€ข2023: โ‚ฌ11.59B
โ€ขCAGR: 14.50%

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2013: โ‚ฌ6.83
โ€ข2023: โ‚ฌ30.33
โ€ขCAGR: 16.07%

SHARE BUYBACKSโŒ
โ€ข2013 Shares Outstanding: 503.22M
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 500.30M

MARGINSโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 68.8%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 26.5%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 17.6%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS & ~10% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $LVMH has to grow earnings at a 10.95% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2025 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than (10.95%) the required growth rate:

2024E: โ‚ฌ31.56 (4.3% YoY)* Dec

2025E: โ‚ฌ35.25 (11.4% YoY)
2026E: โ‚ฌ38.15 (8.2% YoY)

So, letโ€™s assume $LVMH ends 2026 with โ‚ฌ38.15 in EPS & see its CAGR potential (dividends included) assuming different multiples:

23x P/E: โ‚ฌ877.45๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~10.0% CAGR

22x P/E: โ‚ฌ839.30๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~8.1% CAGR

21x P/E: โ‚ฌ801.15๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~6.2% CAGR

As you can see, weโ€™d have to assume 23x for $LVMH to have attractive return potential & while 23x is certainly reasonable given its quality, we should be aware that $LVMH 10-Year average multiple (24.92x) is elevated a bit due to the valuation spike in 2020-2021

While $LVMH deserves to trade at a premium multiple due to its quality, Iโ€™m hesitant to rely on 23x because I want to ensure some margin of safety

Itโ€™s safer to rely on ~21x earnings & be pleasantly surprised with some multiple expansion (rather than have the risk of multiple compression)

Iโ€™d prefer to be more patient & wait for a better entry price around โ‚ฌ640๐Ÿ’ต (11% below todays price), this way I can reasonably expect ~11% CAGR assuming a 21x multiple

$MC $LVMHF $LVMUY

#stocks #investing
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๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ.
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AkhenOsiris
$ORCL

*Some CIOs expect to reduce spending on vendors such as Oracle to allocate more funds to GenAI investments."

$MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $ORCL and other software names

Citi CIO Survey:

Microsoft remains the leading generative AI partner that CIOs are considering, significantly ahead of Amazon and Google.

Regarding funding for GenAI projects, 71% of CIOs anticipate securing new or additional funding (up slightly from 70% last quarter), while 29% believe the funding will come from existing resources. Some CIOs expect to reduce spending on vendors such as Oracle to allocate more funds to GenAI investments.

Organizations are projected to increase their GenAI spending by an average of 13% in the near term. However, it is still "early to identify clear winners," with the median percentage of use cases in the testing phase between 31-40% and in the production phase between 11-20%.

The survey reveals that "46% of respondents have seen GenAI projects negatively impact traditional IT budgets, with back-office and consulting projects as the top affected categories, and the median impact on traditional IT budgets between 7-9%."

Overall, Citi's 2Q CIO survey showed mixed results, with a slight deterioration in the IT budget environment, primarily due to Europe. However, US near-term IT budget growth expectations improved notably to 3% this quarter, up from 2.2% in the March quarter survey, and surpassing the historical average of 2.7%.

Cybersecurity remains the top investment priority for CIOs, followed by Data modernization/GenAI, though its importance has diminished compared to March, Citi noted.

This โ€œmay be a slightly negative read-through for MSFT, ESTC, SNOW, MDB, INFA, CFLT and TDC,โ€ analysts highlighted.

Digital Transformation Projects also remain a top-three priority but have fallen in importance since March, potentially tied to enterprises refining their generative AI strategies. Robotics/Automation remains the fourth priority
- AkhenOsiris
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AkhenOsiris
$MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $ORCL and other software names

Citi CIO Survey:

Microsoft remains the leading generative AI partner that CIOs are considering, significantly ahead of Amazon and Google.

Regarding funding for GenAI projects, 71% of CIOs anticipate securing new or additional funding (up slightly from 70% last quarter), while 29% believe the funding will come from existing resources. Some CIOs expect to reduce spending on vendors such as Oracle to allocate more funds to GenAI investments.

Organizations are projected to increase their GenAI spending by an average of 13% in the near term. However, it is still "early to identify clear winners," with the median percentage of use cases in the testing phase between 31-40% and in the production phase between 11-20%.

The survey reveals that "46% of respondents have seen GenAI projects negatively impact traditional IT budgets, with back-office and consulting projects as the top affected categories, and the median impact on traditional IT budgets between 7-9%."

Overall, Citi's 2Q CIO survey showed mixed results, with a slight deterioration in the IT budget environment, primarily due to Europe. However, US near-term IT budget growth expectations improved notably to 3% this quarter, up from 2.2% in the March quarter survey, and surpassing the historical average of 2.7%.

Cybersecurity remains the top investment priority for CIOs, followed by Data modernization/GenAI, though its importance has diminished compared to March, Citi noted.

This โ€œmay be a slightly negative read-through for MSFT, ESTC, SNOW, MDB, INFA, CFLT and TDC,โ€ analysts highlighted.

Digital Transformation Projects also remain a top-three priority but have fallen in importance since March, potentially tied to enterprises refining their generative AI strategies. Robotics/Automation remains the fourth priority
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AkhenOsiris
$MSFT $AMZN

Sell-side CIO Survey Roundup:

Earlier this week Jefferies CIO survey (n=40) found Azure with a "slight preference" over AWS for overall cloud spend.

MS found Microsoft to be biggest beneficiary of GenAI spend "by far" vs Amazon and Google. MS also found public cloud workloads increasing at approx 20% cagr next 2 years.

Today Citi CIO survey finds Microsoft is "significantly ahead of Amazon and Google" for GenAI projects.
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AkhenOsiris
$RIVN seemed dire and in need of a lifeline a few mths ago.

They got it with rates pulling back and the VW cash injection, up 116% in 3 mths.
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Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
$W $W TICKER WITH 'W' PATTERN AT WORK...THIS IS BULLISH
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Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
many sell-side on this boat @Crussian17

While headline PPI was 0.22% m/m, the trade services (i.e. wholesale and retail margins) contributed 0.37% to the number. In other words, m/m PPI would have been firmly negative otherwise. Could hint at some margin expansion during earnings season. - Liz Young Thomas
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Offshore
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โ iinvested
1Q'24 Palm Valley Capital Fund on $RGP, $DOX, $KELYA, $TBI, $CRI

https://t.co/wwLwZ2YSV8

More fund letters here:
https://t.co/HhAAZQRRKy https://t.co/0jakSbneAA
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