AkhenOsiris
RT @trader_53: One of the actively discussed takes this morning:

Goldman says, concern is growing among investors that data center companies have overinvested in AI $NVDA
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AkhenOsiris
$CART Initiated Sector Weight

KeyBanc initiated coverage of Instacart with a Sector Weight rating and no price target. Instacart has established itself as a leader in the grocery delivery space, but category growth is undergoing a transition, which could temper revenue growth over the medium term, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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AkhenOsiris
Do we trust analysts who go with "no price target"?

Takeaway is the name is volatile?

$CART Initiated Sector Weight

KeyBanc initiated coverage of Instacart with a Sector Weight rating and no price target. Instacart has established itself as a leader in the grocery delivery space, but category growth is undergoing a transition, which could temper revenue growth over the medium term, the analyst tells investors in a research note. - AkhenOsiris
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN

Piper Sandler analysts said its ad buyer checks were once again constructive, exceeding expectations for the sixth consecutive quarter after a series of misses during the period from Q1 2022 to Q4 2022.

Digital spend in 1Q was up 8.4% year-over-year, approximately 70 basis points above ad buyer’s expectation at the end of the quarter. Although 2Q outperformance was lower than 1Q's 290 basis points, it still surpassed 4Q's 40 basis points.

Looking into 2024, Piper Sandler said ad buyer forecasts about 8.4% digital growth for the fiscal year, down approximately 110 basis points from their March estimate. Analysts also noted a slightly weaker economy compared to three months ago.

"While key debates like student loans repayment and high rates have been better, certain verticals have struggled to recover (auto, financials) and the election creates some uncertainty," the note states.

Amazon, Snapchat, and Pinterest all outperformed 2Q24 estimates by over 300 basis points, while TikTok's growth fell well below previous levels.

Amazon has achieved an "incredible" level of data utilization through its Amazon Media Cloud (AMC), with even Google and Meta contributing anonymized data due to the advantages.
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AkhenOsiris
"TikTok's growth fell well below previous levels"

$AMZN

Piper Sandler analysts said its ad buyer checks were once again constructive, exceeding expectations for the sixth consecutive quarter after a series of misses during the period from Q1 2022 to Q4 2022.

Digital spend in 1Q was up 8.4% year-over-year, approximately 70 basis points above ad buyer’s expectation at the end of the quarter. Although 2Q outperformance was lower than 1Q's 290 basis points, it still surpassed 4Q's 40 basis points.

Looking into 2024, Piper Sandler said ad buyer forecasts about 8.4% digital growth for the fiscal year, down approximately 110 basis points from their March estimate. Analysts also noted a slightly weaker economy compared to three months ago.

"While key debates like student loans repayment and high rates have been better, certain verticals have struggled to recover (auto, financials) and the election creates some uncertainty," the note states.

Amazon, Snapchat, and Pinterest all outperformed 2Q24 estimates by over 300 basis points, while TikTok's growth fell well below previous levels.

Amazon has achieved an "incredible" level of data utilization through its Amazon Media Cloud (AMC), with even Google and Meta contributing anonymized data due to the advantages. - AkhenOsiris
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AkhenOsiris
WHERE IS ADAM JONAS

Another episode of Overpromise / underdeliver. On the day of Musk‘s 8/8 announcment no one at Tesla knew they had something to reveal and it is pretty clear that they still have nothing.

Yet another red flag added to the collection. On what foundation the massive stock run now rests remains totally unclear.

$TSLA - Trader 53
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AkhenOsiris
Today I realized I once bought SKLZ at a split-adjusted price of $180 😂😂😂

Trades at $6 today...sounds preposterous until you see the high was ~$875 😂😂😂
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AkhenOsiris
Earnings setups are still terrible, but less so today 🔥
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: 7 Quality Stocks With >10% CAGR Potential Assuming Lower Multiple & 2026 EPS Est 💵

💳 Visa $V
•10-Year Avg P/E: 28.10x
•2026E Earnings: $12.68
•CAGR Potential w 27x — 12.2% ✅

💸 Mastercard $MA
•10-Year Avg P/E: 31.28x
•2026E Earnings: $19.34
•CAGR Potential w 30x — 11.8% ✅

📦 Amazon $AMZN (P/FCF Used)
•10-Year Avg P/FCF: 37.79x
•2026E FCF: $102.26B
•CAGR Potential w 27x — 12.0% ✅

📊 Salesforce $CRM
•5-Year Avg P/E: 47.63
•2026E Earnings: $11.01
•CAGR Potential w 27x — 10.4% ✅

🩻 UnitedHealth $UNH
•10-Year Avg P/E: 18.64x
•2026E Earnings: $34.97
•CAGR Potential w 18x — 11.5% ✅

🧾 Automatic Data $ADP
•10-Year Avg P/E: 27.28x
•2026E Earnings: $10.85
•CAGR Potential w 26x — 11.5% ✅

📈 FactSet Research $FDS
•10-Year Avg P/E: 26.05x
•2026E Earnings: $19.35
•CAGR Potential w 26x — 10.2% ✅

#stocks #investing
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AkhenOsiris
Terrible setups because up so much

Today can be filed under “be careful what you wish for.” CPI was down 0.1% from May & was the first decline since May 2020 which is certainly good news. While Fed cut hopes rose, investor complacency in all things AI related was reflected in the violent rotation within the market. This is best illustrated by $NVDA down -5.6%. Additionally, the Magnificent7/Nasdaq fell (-4.0%/-2.0%) while the Russell 2000 rose (+3.6%).

Looking forward into tech earnings season which starts in earnest next week, with mega cap starting the week after, I continue to believe there is a rising mismatch between the amount of capex spent on AI and the resulting revenues being generated. I believe today is a warning sign of what could occur if there are any disappointments among the Mag7 due to ROI (return on investment) concerns.

During Q1 earnings season, the Mag7 were on average +4% the day after reporting with only $META down the next day. The group surged another 20% the day after reporting earnings to the close today on 7/11 for a total year-to-date gain of 43%. This upcoming Q2 earnings season could be very different than Q1.

$AAPL is my favorite of the Mag7 given its poor revenue performance over the past three years and likelihood finally for a multi-year iPhone upgrade cycle driven by AI.

$META is likely to benefit from upcoming election & Olympics spend. Having said that, they did guide below expectations for Q2 revenue when they reported in Q1 and the stock was hit for 11% the next day.

$MSFT scares me due to my increasing concerns over a potential mismatch in AI investment in Azure versus revenues, despite their relationship with OpenAI (the maker of ChatGPT).

$GOOGL has this mismatch risk as well in Google Cloud but I hope the election and Olympics spend can offset this risk in the second half of the year.

$AMZN also has this mismatch risk in Amazon Web Services, but I believe their total company margin expansion driven by e-commerce & advertising revenue growth will continue.

$TSLA reported an upside surprise to deliveries for the first time in a while, but I just cannot get comfortable with their valuation or the heavy price competition in the EV market right now.

$NVDA is deservedly the poster child for the AI trade. But any issues at any of the big hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft & Google) that report before them is likely to matter more than their own results at least till they report in late August.

In summary, my plan is to be very conservative in my positioning the day the members of the Mag7 report while looking to add to my positions on corrections. As I have written about before, while in the near-term I am concerned about an AI digestion period, I believe the ultimate peak is still several years in the future. - Dan Niles
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: ~3 weeks ago I shared my “sober valuation analysis 🧘🏽‍♂️” on $ACN stating:

“As you can see, we’d have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above its 10-year average & above what’s arguably justified given its growth rate)

Today at $306💵 it appears that $ACN is a wonderful company trading at a fair price

I’d reconsider $ACN closer to $285💵 or at ~22.78x forward estimates (~7% below today’s price) where I can possibly expect near double digit return potential assuming a 23x end multiple in 2026”

Since then, $ACN dropped ~7% & is currently trading at $285💵 as my research suggested

Tomorrow I will share an updated analysis on $ACN 💯

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲."

A sober valuation analysis on $ACN 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 24.50x
•10-Year Mean: 23.98x

•NTM FCF Yield: 5.42%
•10-Year Mean: 5.20%

As you can see, $ACN appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~2% LESS in earnings per share & ~4% MORE in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ACN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $5.12B
•Long-Term Debt: $71.64M

$ACN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 174x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2018: 54.2%
•2019: 42.1%
•2020: 30.8%
•2021: 32.0%
•2022: 38.2%
•2023: 33.8%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2018: 41.2%
•2019: 37.9%
•2020: 32.1%
•2021: 31.9%
•2022: 32.6%
•2023: 28.5%

$ACN has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $28.56B
•2023: $64.11B
•CAGR: 8.42%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.93B
•2023: $8.99B
•CAGR: 11.86%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $4.21
•2023: $11.67
•CAGR: 10.73%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 713.34M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 637.95M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $ACN increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $1.62
•2023: $4.48
•CAGR: 10.70%

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 32.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 15.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 10.9%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~2% LESS in EPS & ~4% MORE FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ACN has to grow earnings at a 12.25% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (12.25%) required growth rate:

2024E: $12.17 (4.3% YoY) *FY August
2025E: $13.20 (8.5% YoY)
2026E: $14.83 (12.4% YoY)

$ACN has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ACN ends 2026 with $14.83 in EPS & see its CAGR potential a[...]

ssuming different multiples

25x P/E: $370.75💵 … ~10.3% CAGR

24x P/E: $355.92💵 … ~8.4% CAGR

23x P/E: $341.09💵 … ~6.5% CAGR

22x P/E: $326.26💵 … ~4.5% CAGR

As you can see, we’d have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above its 10-year average & above what’s arguably justified given its growth rate)

Today at $306💵 it appears that $ACN is a wonderful company trading at a fair price

I’d reconsider $ACN closer to $285💵 or at ~22.78x forward estimates (~7% below today’s price) where I can possibly expect near double digit return potential assuming a 23x end multiple in 2026

#stocks #investing

Thank you @WisedelCapital for the request
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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