⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
5 Quality Stocks On My Buy Radar Today 💵

💸 Mastercard $MA
•NTM P/E: 30.34x
•5-Year Avg: 35.37x
•Estimated EPS Growth 2025: 16.2%
•Estimated EPS Growth 2026: 17.0%
•LTM ROIC: 64.1%
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📊 Salesforce $CRM
•NTM P/E: 23.30x
•5-Year Avg: 48.15x
•Estimated EPS Growth 2026*: 11.5%
•Estimated EPS Growth 2027*: 14.5%
•LTM ROIC: 9.1%

*Fiscal Year Ends Jan
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👜 Moët Louis Vuitton $LVMH $MC
•NTM P/E: 22.21x
•5-Year Avg: 27.26x
•Estimated EPS Growth 2025: 11.3%
•Estimated EPS Growth 2026: 8.9%
•LTM ROIC: 21.0%
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🗂️ Accenture $ACN
•NTM P/E: 22.84x
•5-Year Avg: 27.55x
•Estimated EPS Growth 2025: 8.6%
•Estimated EPS Growth 2026: 12.2%
•LTM ROIC: 32.3%
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🩻 UnitedHealth $UNH
•NTM P/E: 17.65x
•5-Year Avg: 19.72x
•Estimated EPS Growth 2025: 11.9%
•Estimated EPS Growth 2026: 12.9%
•LTM ROIC: 18.4%
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#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $MA 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.34x
•10-Year Mean: 31.23x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.59%
•10-Year Mean: 3.43%

As you can see, $MA appears to be trading slightly below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~3% MORE in earnings per share & ~5% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MA is a super business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $7.66B
•Long-Term Debt: $13.54B

$MA has a strong balance sheet, an A+ S&P Credit Rating & 19.79x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 62.9%
•2020: 40.6%
•2021: 45.7%
•2022: 58.5%
•2023: 61.1%
•LTM: 64.1%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 141.4%
•2020: 102.5%
•2021: 124.7%
•2022: 144.0%
•2023: 167.4%
•LTM: 186.3%

$MA has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $8.31B
•2023: $25.10B
•CAGR: 11.68%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $3.98B
•2023: $11.61B
•CAGR: 11.30%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.61
•2023: $12.26
•CAGR: 16.73%

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.29
•2023: $2.37
•CAGR: 23.37%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.21B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 939M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~22.4%, $MA increased its EPS by ~28.8% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 58.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 46.1%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~3% MORE in EPS & ~5% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MA has to grow earnings at a 15.17% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (15.17%) required growth rate:

2024E: $14.26 (16.3% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $16.58 (16.2% YoY)
2026E: $19.39 (17.0% YoY)

$MA has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MA ends 2026 with $19.39 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

31x P/E: $601.09💵 … ~13.4% CAGR

29.5x P/E: $572.00💵 … ~11.2% CAGR

28x P/E: $542.92💵 … ~9.0% CAGR

As you can see, $MA appears to have attractive return potential if we assume greater or equal to 29.5x earnings (slightly below the 10-year mean & justified given its quality & growth rate)

While there isn’t a great margin of safety today, $MA is such a high-quality business & has the potential to compound in the mid teens for the next 5 years & companies with strong & consistent earnings growth tend to look cheap years later (even if we thought they were “expensive” at the time)

Today at $440💵 $MA appears to be a worthwhile consideration for investment

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$ODFL — LTL 🚛 & Real Estate Powerhouse 🧘🏽‍♂️

#stocks #investing https://t.co/NJTmoJIl50

5 Quality Stocks On My Buy Radar Today 💸

💳 Visa $V
•NTM P/E: 26.30x
•5-Year Avg: 30.23x
•Estimated EPS Growth 2025: 12.4%
•Estimated EPS Growth 2026: 13.1%
•LTM ROIC: 34.7%
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🚛 Old Dominion Freight Lines $ODFL
•NTM P/E: 27.67x
•5-Year Avg: 28.75x
•Estimated EPS Growth 2025: 18.5%
•Estimated EPS Growth 2026: 10.6%
•LTM ROIC: 33.9%
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🖱️ Alphabet $GOOG $GOOGL
•NTM P/E: 22.63x
•5-Year Avg: 24.60x
•Estimated EPS Growth 2025: 13.7%
•Estimated EPS Growth 2026: 14.9%
•LTM ROIC: 30.2%
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📈 S&P Global $SPGI
•NTM P/E: 30.65x
•5-Year Avg: 29.14x
•Estimated EPS Growth 2025: 13.2%
•Estimated EPS Growth 2026: 13.1%
•LTM ROIC: 9.0%
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🧃 Monster Beverage $MNST
•NTM P/E: 28.54x
•5-Year Avg: 32.28x
•Estimated EPS Growth 2025: 14.2%
•Estimated EPS Growth 2026: 13.4%
•LTM ROIC: 24.0%
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#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Salesforce 📊 | $CRM prints FCF & currently trades near its all time high FCF Yield💰

•NTM FCF Yield: 5.03%
•10-Year Mean: 3.12%

#stocks #investing https://t.co/iQp0SQxExd
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
10 Wide Moat Stocks With NTM FCF Yield % > 10-Year Mean | Balance Sheet & Credit Rating 💵

💳 Visa $V
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.00%
•10-Year Mean: 3.83%
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $17.70B
•Long-Term Debt: $20.60B
•S&P Credit Rating: AA-

📦 Amazon $AMZN
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.18%
•10-Year Mean: 2.84%
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $85.07B
•Long-Term Debt: $64.13B
•S&P Credit Rating: AA

📊 Salesforce $CRM
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.13%
•10-Year Mean: 3.13%
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $17.67B
•Long-Term Debt: $8.43B
•S&P Credit Rating: A+

♟️ Accenture $ACN
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.71%
•10-Year Mean: 5.18%
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $5.13B
•Long-Term Debt: $71.64M
•S&P Credit Rating: A+

🩳 Lululemon $LULU
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.83%
•10-Year Mean: 2.16%
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $2.24B
•Long-Term Debt: $0
•S&P Credit Rating: n/a

📸 Meta Platforms $META
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.86%
•10-Year Mean: 3.28%
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $58.12B
•Long-Term Debt: $18.38B
•S&P Credit Rating: AA-

🩻 Elevance Health $ELV
•NTM FCF Yield: 7.64%
•10-Year Mean: 7.54%
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $37.63B
•Long-Term Debt: $21.97B
•S&P Credit Rating: A

👜 Moët Hennessy & LV $MC $LVMH
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.43%
•10-Year Mean: 4.14%
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $12.46B
•Long-Term Debt: $12.50B
•S&P Credit Rating: AA-

💸 Automatic Data Processing $ADP
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.63%
•10-Year Mean: 4.50%
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $3.29B
•Long-Term Debt: $2.99B
•S&P Credit Rating: AA-

🩹 Johnson & Johnson $JNJ
•NTM FCF Yield: 6.51%
•10-Year Mean: 5.66%
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $26.21B
•Long-Term Debt: $25.08B
•S&P Credit Rating: AAA

#stocks #investing
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
2 weeks ago I shared my “sober valuation analysis 🧘🏽‍♂️” on $LULU

Since then, $LULU popped +16% after reporting better than expected quarterly result

As I stated in my analysis:

“$LULU can demand a >20x multiple IF it beats growth estimates over the next few years, signaling that the sell-off due to competitive pressures may be overdone

I don’t believe it’s unreasonable to rely on ~22x (especially given $LULU return metrics, balance sheet, & strong history of growth — $LULU has grown its revenues ANNUALLY since 2007 🤯)

Today at $300💵 $LULU appears to be a worthwhile consideration for investment — albeit with several competitive risks (and how $LULU responds) that should be monitored closely”

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲."

A sober valuation analysis on $LULU 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 21.14x
•10-Year Mean: 35.94x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.80%
•10-Year Mean: 2.16%

As you can see, $LULU appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~70% MORE in earnings per share & ~75% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $LULU is a good business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $2.24B
•Total Debt: $1.40B

$LULU has an excellent balance sheet

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 32.5%
•2021: 23.8%
•2022: 37.4%
•2023: 40.4%
•2024: 39.0%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 38.0%
•2021: 26.1%
•2022: 36.8%
•2023: 29.0%
•2024: 42.0%

$LULU has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2014: $1.59B
•2024: $9.62B
•CAGR: 19.72%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $171.93M
•2024: $1.64B
•CAGR: 25.33%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.91
•2024: $12.77
•CAGR: 20.92%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 146.04M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 127.06M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~13%, $LULU increased its EPS by ~15% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 58.3%
•LTM Operating Margins: 22.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 16.1%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~70% MORE in EPS & ~75% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $LULU has to grow earnings at a 10.57% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over next few years to be slightly above the (10.57%) required growth rate:

2025E: $14.16 (10.9% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $15.86 (12.0% YoY)

$LULU has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $LULU ends 2026 with $15.86 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:

25x P/E: $396.50💵 … ~19.2% CAGR

24x P/E: $380.64💵 … ~16.2% CAGR

23x P/E: $364.78💵 … ~13.1% CAGR

22x P/E: $348.92💵 … ~10.0% CAGR

As you can see, $[...]

LULU appears to have attractive return potential IF it can demand a >22x multiple

However, it’s important to keep in mind that it’s difficult to maintain a strong competitive advantage (over long periods of time) in the athletic apparel space & recent growth concerns amid increased competition is why $LULU stock is trading near the lowest end of its historical multiple range

$LULU can demand a >20x multiple IF it beats growth estimates over the next few years, signaling that the sell-off due to competitive pressures may be overdone

I don’t believe it’s unreasonable to rely on ~22x (especially given $LULU return metrics, balance sheet, & strong history of growth — $LULU has grown its revenues ANNUALLY since 2007 🤯)

Today at $300💵 $LULU appears to be a worthwhile consideration for investment — albeit with several competitive risks (and how $LULU responds) that should be monitored closely

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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