Antonio Linares
20K followers! Thanks everyone 😊

Seems like 5 minutes ago we were at 2K https://t.co/JRuctUhE93
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $ACN 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 24.50x
•10-Year Mean: 23.98x

•NTM FCF Yield: 5.42%
•10-Year Mean: 5.20%

As you can see, $ACN appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~2% LESS in earnings per share & ~4% MORE in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ACN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $5.12B
•Long-Term Debt: $71.64M

$ACN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 174x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2018: 54.2%
•2019: 42.1%
•2020: 30.8%
•2021: 32.0%
•2022: 38.2%
•2023: 33.8%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2018: 41.2%
•2019: 37.9%
•2020: 32.1%
•2021: 31.9%
•2022: 32.6%
•2023: 28.5%

$ACN has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $28.56B
•2023: $64.11B
•CAGR: 8.42%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.93B
•2023: $8.99B
•CAGR: 11.86%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $4.21
•2023: $11.67
•CAGR: 10.73%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 713.34M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 637.95M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $ACN increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $1.62
•2023: $4.48
•CAGR: 10.70%

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 32.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 15.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 10.9%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~2% LESS in EPS & ~4% MORE FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ACN has to grow earnings at a 12.25% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (12.25%) required growth rate:

2024E: $12.17 (4.3% YoY) *FY August
2025E: $13.20 (8.5% YoY)
2026E: $14.83 (12.4% YoY)

$ACN has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ACN ends 2026 with $14.83 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

25x P/E: $370.75💵 … ~10.3% CAGR

24x P/E: $355.92💵 … ~8.4% CAGR

23x P/E: $341.09💵 … ~6.5% CAGR

22x P/E: $326.26💵 … ~4.5% CAGR

As you can see, we’d have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above its 10-year average & above what’s arguably justified given its growth rate)

Today at $306💵 it appears that $ACN is a wonderful company trading at a fair price

I’d reconsider $ACN closer to $285💵 or at ~22.78x forward estimates (~7% below today’s price) where I can possibly expect near double digit return potential assuming a 23x end multiple in 2026

#stocks #investing

Thank you @WisedelCapital for the request
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Giuliano
Why wouldn’t I read Newton, Darwin, and all of the great minds that have lived?

It seems invariably the case that Charlie was right.

I will try to write my ‘guideline to worldly wisdom and its application to investing’.
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Giuliano
I'll try doing 4 hours of daily deep writing until Darwin's essay is done.

The up-left program will facilitate this. https://t.co/xc9irXc3rx
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Brandon Beylo
“Just please don’t do something stupid like a massive dilution and destroy our capital.”

Mining executives: https://t.co/M63TPFPDIx
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Antonio Linares
Refined sugars are the leading cause for many awful conditions. They rot the body.

Yet, when I tell people I don’t eat sugar they usually get offended.

Why do you think this is?
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The Long Investor
The Prodigal Son has made a statement

$PLTR

Peter Thiel increased his stake in $PLTR from 7% to over 10% in his latest filing

Institutional ownership sits at 40.86% https://t.co/i1Jsm517NG - PalantirHotline 🎯
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The Long Investor
You thought they were not preparing for humanoid robots

lol

According to a video message, Chinese biomimetic humanoid robots have entered the mass production stage. https://t.co/9MJ3InJLpn - Zhang Heqing
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Hidden Value Gems
This probably explains Buffett's cautious stance on markets. Indices are close to all-time high, yet the feedback from his companies is that consumer demand is slowing down and sales are down in certain cases.

#StockMarket #investing #BRK https://t.co/WXxILZf91w
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The Long Investor
$AFRM just reported earnings, up 4.5% in the PM after a double beat.

Hope you enjoyed that freebie. https://t.co/ZJxyrCWEDw

$AFRM ok here is a freebie.

$AFRM reports their earnings before the market opens on Weds.

Bullish set up leading to its report release:
- Held and bounce on the 200 Day MA
- Broke out above the 50 Day MA
- Broke out of the falling bullish wedge
- In Wave 5.

Positive report and there is a route back to the previous high above $51.

If it misses, back down to the 200 Day MA at $31. - The Long Investor
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