The Long Investor
$PTON shocking ๐ฎ
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$PTON shocking ๐ฎ
PELOTON $PTON is being "circled" by private equity firms for a buyout - CNBC tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly) on X
PELOTON $PTON is being "circled" by private equity firms for a buyout - CNBC
Offshore
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The Long Investor
RT @TheLongInvest: $PTON was once worth $171 a share, now at $3.39.
From $63 Billion to $1.25 Billion.
Would $NKE, $LULU, $SKX consider buying this and adding value to their ecosystem?....seems like a steal at this level. https://t.co/saGwqgLgrm
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RT @TheLongInvest: $PTON was once worth $171 a share, now at $3.39.
From $63 Billion to $1.25 Billion.
Would $NKE, $LULU, $SKX consider buying this and adding value to their ecosystem?....seems like a steal at this level. https://t.co/saGwqgLgrm
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Offshore
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๎จ Q-Cap ๎จ
$PTON congrats to Peloton shareholders for potentially being taken over for a -97% premium to 2020 prices https://t.co/goXh8I6wLa
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$PTON congrats to Peloton shareholders for potentially being taken over for a -97% premium to 2020 prices https://t.co/goXh8I6wLa
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Offshore
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The Long Investor
RT @Investingcom: โ ๏ธ JUST IN:
*APPLE, RIVIAN REPORTEDLY IN TALKS FOR PARTNERSHIP
$AAPL $RIVN https://t.co/n6UqOuiwIU
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RT @Investingcom: โ ๏ธ JUST IN:
*APPLE, RIVIAN REPORTEDLY IN TALKS FOR PARTNERSHIP
$AAPL $RIVN https://t.co/n6UqOuiwIU
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Offshore
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The Long Investor
$CELH added to our group on the 18th of April
We were prepared for the miss and decline.
200 Day MA does look attractive for a bounce https://t.co/YipcKE1j96
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$CELH added to our group on the 18th of April
We were prepared for the miss and decline.
200 Day MA does look attractive for a bounce https://t.co/YipcKE1j96
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Offshore
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Daniel
Many strategies can outperform the market.
These 4 proved they can do it:
1. The Concentrated "High-Quality Business" Strategy
2. The "Special Situations" Strategy
3. The Diversified "GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price)" Strategy
4. The Deep Value Strategy
Let me explain these Strategies๐
1. The Concentrated High-Quality Business Strategy is what most investors associate with Buffett.
It's probably the dominant strategy among value investors today. At least if we look at the big players.
You own a concentrated portfolio of 5 to 8 stocks consisting of high-quality businesses. High quality means stable and growing cash flows, competitive advantages, and a strong balance sheet.
2. The Special Situations Strategy was popularized by Joel Greenblatt's book "You can be a Stock Market Genius".
It's about finding situations where businesses are misprized due to different circumstances.
Those could be spin-offs, restructurings, mergers, or anything out of the ordinary.
Most successful investors started out in this field and also had their greatest returns during that time.
Even Buffett made his best returns with these investments. He used to call them "workouts".
3. The Diversified GARP Strategy is similar to the High-Quality approach and it doesn't have to be more diversified.
However, I made this assumption just to clarify that concentration is not the only way to outperform.
You can use this and the high-quality approach in both ways.
This approach is a little better suited for diversification because you look for businesses with higher growth expectations.
It's a trade-off between "value today and value tomorrow."
This approach tends to weigh "value tomorrow" a little higher than the high-quality approach.
4. The Deep Value Strategy was used by many of the investors seen in the graph above. Walter Schloss applied it for almost 50 years and it served him well.
It's about buying companies well below their actual worth. That worth is often measured by accounting for all current assets.
Companies valued like this are called "Net Nets." A typical deep-value investment is buying a company below book value.
Such opportunities have become much rarer in today's times, making this approach less common. However, I don't rule out that some investors still do this and perform well.
Let's talk Pros and Cons and what strategy one should use:
1. Individual Fit
Which one of these matches your personality and investment philosophy?
First of all, it's about your take on market efficiency.
If you believe that there are no inefficiencies in large-cap stocks, the high-quality business and GARP approach is already limited.
Yes, there are smaller companies that match the profile, but the number of opportunities is significantly lower. And the more limited your opportunities, the harder it gets.
On the other hand, once you find a great business at a great price, it's an investment for a long time.
You only need a handful of good investment opportunities. This is different with special situations, the turnover is higher.
You have the ability to compound faster and at higher rates, but you also need to find a lot more opportunities.
You need more time, a better understanding of the financial details, and look out for value traps and downside risks when a special situation doesn't turn out as planned.
Downside risks are often higher than with the other two approaches.
2. The Right Time
By owning just the largest US tech companies, you would've outperformed almost every fund and index over the past decade.
I know this info comes a little late... and there is no guarantee it will continue like that in the next decade.
However, businesses have changed dramatically over the last decades, and there's a reason these tech stocks grew like very few other businesses ever have.
Network Effects, winner-takes-all markets, and the inabilit[...]
Many strategies can outperform the market.
These 4 proved they can do it:
1. The Concentrated "High-Quality Business" Strategy
2. The "Special Situations" Strategy
3. The Diversified "GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price)" Strategy
4. The Deep Value Strategy
Let me explain these Strategies๐
1. The Concentrated High-Quality Business Strategy is what most investors associate with Buffett.
It's probably the dominant strategy among value investors today. At least if we look at the big players.
You own a concentrated portfolio of 5 to 8 stocks consisting of high-quality businesses. High quality means stable and growing cash flows, competitive advantages, and a strong balance sheet.
2. The Special Situations Strategy was popularized by Joel Greenblatt's book "You can be a Stock Market Genius".
It's about finding situations where businesses are misprized due to different circumstances.
Those could be spin-offs, restructurings, mergers, or anything out of the ordinary.
Most successful investors started out in this field and also had their greatest returns during that time.
Even Buffett made his best returns with these investments. He used to call them "workouts".
3. The Diversified GARP Strategy is similar to the High-Quality approach and it doesn't have to be more diversified.
However, I made this assumption just to clarify that concentration is not the only way to outperform.
You can use this and the high-quality approach in both ways.
This approach is a little better suited for diversification because you look for businesses with higher growth expectations.
It's a trade-off between "value today and value tomorrow."
This approach tends to weigh "value tomorrow" a little higher than the high-quality approach.
4. The Deep Value Strategy was used by many of the investors seen in the graph above. Walter Schloss applied it for almost 50 years and it served him well.
It's about buying companies well below their actual worth. That worth is often measured by accounting for all current assets.
Companies valued like this are called "Net Nets." A typical deep-value investment is buying a company below book value.
Such opportunities have become much rarer in today's times, making this approach less common. However, I don't rule out that some investors still do this and perform well.
Let's talk Pros and Cons and what strategy one should use:
1. Individual Fit
Which one of these matches your personality and investment philosophy?
First of all, it's about your take on market efficiency.
If you believe that there are no inefficiencies in large-cap stocks, the high-quality business and GARP approach is already limited.
Yes, there are smaller companies that match the profile, but the number of opportunities is significantly lower. And the more limited your opportunities, the harder it gets.
On the other hand, once you find a great business at a great price, it's an investment for a long time.
You only need a handful of good investment opportunities. This is different with special situations, the turnover is higher.
You have the ability to compound faster and at higher rates, but you also need to find a lot more opportunities.
You need more time, a better understanding of the financial details, and look out for value traps and downside risks when a special situation doesn't turn out as planned.
Downside risks are often higher than with the other two approaches.
2. The Right Time
By owning just the largest US tech companies, you would've outperformed almost every fund and index over the past decade.
I know this info comes a little late... and there is no guarantee it will continue like that in the next decade.
However, businesses have changed dramatically over the last decades, and there's a reason these tech stocks grew like very few other businesses ever have.
Network Effects, winner-takes-all markets, and the inabilit[...]
Offshore
Daniel Many strategies can outperform the market. These 4 proved they can do it: 1. The Concentrated "High-Quality Business" Strategy 2. The "Special Situations" Strategy 3. The Diversified "GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price)" Strategy 4. The Deep Valueโฆ
y to efficiently regulate highly innovative firms made these companies more successful than ever.
And this is a trend that is unlikely to stop and it benefits the high-quality and GARP approach investors.
Eventually, other companies will rise to the top, but the general trend of oligopolies and monopolies will probably remain.
These were some thoughts on the above-mentioned strategies.
When I have more to say, I might write a longer article on my Website.
What's your Investment Strategy and Opinion on this?
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And this is a trend that is unlikely to stop and it benefits the high-quality and GARP approach investors.
Eventually, other companies will rise to the top, but the general trend of oligopolies and monopolies will probably remain.
These were some thoughts on the above-mentioned strategies.
When I have more to say, I might write a longer article on my Website.
What's your Investment Strategy and Opinion on this?
tweet
Offshore
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Brandon Beylo
Here's one for all you uranium nerds.
Cameco $CCJ with a confirmed inverse H&S breakout today.
The pitch here is that if funds want uranium exposure, they really only have a few options: $U.UN, $YCA.L, and $CCJ.
Remember, it's all about fund flows.
#uranium https://t.co/DnQwszCPzH
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Here's one for all you uranium nerds.
Cameco $CCJ with a confirmed inverse H&S breakout today.
The pitch here is that if funds want uranium exposure, they really only have a few options: $U.UN, $YCA.L, and $CCJ.
Remember, it's all about fund flows.
#uranium https://t.co/DnQwszCPzH
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
10 Quality Stocks Flying Under The Radar ๐ต
๐ฅ๏ธ CDW Corp $CDW
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 13.8%
โขLTM ROIC: 20.5%
๐ณ๏ธ Broadridge Financial $BR
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 10.8%
โขLTM ROIC: 16.1%
๐ฆ Fair Isaac Corp $FICO
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 25.9%
โขLTM ROIC: 51.3%
๐พ Agilent Technologies $A
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 14.2%
โขLTM ROIC: 15.4%
๐ข NVR Inc $NVR
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 18.9%
โขLTM ROIC: 37.2%
๐ฟ A O Smith $AOS
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 7.8%
โขLTM ROIC: 36.8%
๐ FactSet Research $FDS
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 11.2%
โขLTM ROIC: 19.5%
๐ชซ Amphenol $APH
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 9.7%
โขLTM ROIC: 19.9%
๐ฅ Medpace $MEDP
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 25.9%
โขLTM ROIC: 42.6%
๐๐ผโโ๏ธ Pool Corp $POOL
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 18.5%
โขLTM ROIC: 26.2%
#stocks #investing
*5-Year EPS CAGR (Normalized EPS)
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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10 Quality Stocks Flying Under The Radar ๐ต
๐ฅ๏ธ CDW Corp $CDW
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 13.8%
โขLTM ROIC: 20.5%
๐ณ๏ธ Broadridge Financial $BR
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 10.8%
โขLTM ROIC: 16.1%
๐ฆ Fair Isaac Corp $FICO
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 25.9%
โขLTM ROIC: 51.3%
๐พ Agilent Technologies $A
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 14.2%
โขLTM ROIC: 15.4%
๐ข NVR Inc $NVR
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 18.9%
โขLTM ROIC: 37.2%
๐ฟ A O Smith $AOS
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 7.8%
โขLTM ROIC: 36.8%
๐ FactSet Research $FDS
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 11.2%
โขLTM ROIC: 19.5%
๐ชซ Amphenol $APH
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 9.7%
โขLTM ROIC: 19.9%
๐ฅ Medpace $MEDP
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 25.9%
โขLTM ROIC: 42.6%
๐๐ผโโ๏ธ Pool Corp $POOL
โข5-Year EPS CAGR: 18.5%
โขLTM ROIC: 26.2%
#stocks #investing
*5-Year EPS CAGR (Normalized EPS)
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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Antonio Linares
5 companies with multi-bagger potential on my watchlist:
1. $CRWD: cybersecurity is now about getting more and better data than the next guy and using it to train AI models that keep the bad guys away. $CRWD has good odds of turning into a winner-takes-all in this space, thanks to the architectural advantage it has over peers. It's effectively evolving into a platform, which competitors will likely be forced to plug into eventually.
2. $PATH: although initially just a harmless productivity app that automates clicks by watching what end users do on their screens, as $PATH develops a semantic understanding of the workflows it automates it can eventually automate work of very high value, closer to a company's core value creation mechanism (instead of just clicks). $PATH has had no problem competing with $MSFT to date, even though it basically lives in $MFST's back yard.
3. $RBLX: the more I study this company, the more I realize it is the social media platform of choice for Gen Alpha (those born between 2010 and 2024). $RBLX has demonstrated the ability to retain users as they grow up, which makes it more likely than not that the platform will be much more relevant in 10 years time.
4. $SMCI: the world is slowing realizing that not all data can/should be handed over to $AMZN, $GOOG and the other cloud hyper-scalers. The demand for personalized and proprietary data-centers is thus going through the roof and $SMCI has been obsessing about every painful detail involved in personalizing and deploying a datacenter, when nobody else really cared.
5. $ROKU: although largely disdained by the market at present, $ROKU has a privileged position in the smart TV OS space. Over the last few years, we saw a slowdown in the streaming space, which also affected $NFLX for example, and the market attributed $ROKU's weaker numbers to increased competition with $AMZN and $GOOG. My view is that $ROKU still dominates these two larger players and that, as the world continues to pivot towards smart TVs, $ROKU continues to compound an enormously valuable piece of digital real estate, which it may be able to capitalize on down the line via better unit economics.
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5 companies with multi-bagger potential on my watchlist:
1. $CRWD: cybersecurity is now about getting more and better data than the next guy and using it to train AI models that keep the bad guys away. $CRWD has good odds of turning into a winner-takes-all in this space, thanks to the architectural advantage it has over peers. It's effectively evolving into a platform, which competitors will likely be forced to plug into eventually.
2. $PATH: although initially just a harmless productivity app that automates clicks by watching what end users do on their screens, as $PATH develops a semantic understanding of the workflows it automates it can eventually automate work of very high value, closer to a company's core value creation mechanism (instead of just clicks). $PATH has had no problem competing with $MSFT to date, even though it basically lives in $MFST's back yard.
3. $RBLX: the more I study this company, the more I realize it is the social media platform of choice for Gen Alpha (those born between 2010 and 2024). $RBLX has demonstrated the ability to retain users as they grow up, which makes it more likely than not that the platform will be much more relevant in 10 years time.
4. $SMCI: the world is slowing realizing that not all data can/should be handed over to $AMZN, $GOOG and the other cloud hyper-scalers. The demand for personalized and proprietary data-centers is thus going through the roof and $SMCI has been obsessing about every painful detail involved in personalizing and deploying a datacenter, when nobody else really cared.
5. $ROKU: although largely disdained by the market at present, $ROKU has a privileged position in the smart TV OS space. Over the last few years, we saw a slowdown in the streaming space, which also affected $NFLX for example, and the market attributed $ROKU's weaker numbers to increased competition with $AMZN and $GOOG. My view is that $ROKU still dominates these two larger players and that, as the world continues to pivot towards smart TVs, $ROKU continues to compound an enormously valuable piece of digital real estate, which it may be able to capitalize on down the line via better unit economics.
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