Antonio Linares
RT @logicsblade: @alc2022 When contrasted with woke DEI cultures of $GOOG and $META, it is actually easy to spot $PLTR 's meritocracy led success. The key like you said is that we are very early on in their S Curve product adoption.
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Antonio Linares
As Warren Buffet said, quantitatives are the rear view mirror and qualitatives are the windscreen.

Here's a simple explanation of how to analyze a company qualitatively, that you will never forget:

Say that in a town called Qualitativeville, we have Supermarket A and Supermarket B - both being separate companies.

You are trying to figure out which to invest in. From the outside, both look pretty similar. You look at their books and their financials look on par too, but Supermarket A has slightly lower margins and makes a smaller profit.

You've heard financial analysts say that, as a result, Supermarket B is the stronger company.

However, you notice that Supermarket A has:

1. Wider parking spots.
2. As soon as you walk in, someone looks you in the eyes and greets you.
3. And prices are generally lower.

On the other hand, parking at Supermarket B is always uncomfortable, the employees don't really pay attention to customers and the prices feel like they could be better.

You begin to wonder, "if customers like Supermarket A better, won't it eventually make more money that Supermarket B?"

The financials certainly look better for Supermarket B, but Supermarket A has a higher customer centricity, which makes it likely that they will develop a better relationship with customers over time.

This will likely put more capital into the hands of Supermarket A over time. And if Supermarket A knows how to allocate capital well, will lead to the creation of more supermarkets that develop relationships with new customers.

In turn, although Supermarket B's financials are better today, their lower customer centricity is likely to have their customers moving over to shop at Supermarket A, losing the ability to compound on those relationships and reinvest the resulting capital.

Morale of the story: Supermarket B's financials are better, but Supermarket A's financials will likely be better because they care more about customers.

This applies to businesses all over the world. The qualitatives are a leading indicator of how well a company is likely to perform financially speaking.

There are many qualitative attributes other than customer centricity, but you get the picture.

More examples of qualitative causality chains:

1. A business that punishes its employees for failing will be unable to innovate. This will translate into loss of marketshare over time and worse financials.

2. A business in which employees have more to gain via politics (climbing the ladder) versus actually building great things for customers will soon fall behind.

3. A company that is addicted to experimentation and failing fast will soon produce a remarkable innovation.

4. A company that celebrates individuals for who they are will eventually create some of the best talent around, which will lead to some of the best products around.
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Antonio Linares
"In cloud, MI300x production deployments expanded at $MSFT, [...] and $ORCL to power generative AI training and inferencing for both internal workloads and a broad set of public offerings."

Lisa Su, $AMD CEO during the Q1 2024 call.
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Antonio Linares
Does $AMD have an edge in AI inference over $NVDA, as Lisa Su says?

"Our partners are seeing very strong performance in their AI workloads. As we jointly optimize for their models MI300x GPUs are delivering leadership inferencing performance and substantial TCO advantages, compared to H100.

For instance, several of our partners are seeing significant increases in tokens per second when running their flagship LLMs on MI300x, compared to H100."
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The Long Investor
RT @BrianFeroldi: I used to sell my winners to feed my losers.

My returns improved dramatically when I learned that the stock market rewards the exact opposite strategy.
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The Long Investor
$HOOD flipped red now.

When social media likes a stock, it gets hunted

JUST IN: ROBINHOOD $HOOD RECEIVES WELLS NOTICE FROM SEC

SEC has made “preliminary determination” to recommend an enforcement action against RHC (Robinhood Crypto) alleging violations of Sections 15(a) and 17A of the Securities Exchange Act. The potential action may involve a civil injunctive action, public administrative proceeding, and/or a cease-and-desist proceeding and may seek remedies that include an injunction, a cease-and-desist order, disgorgement, pre-judgment interest, civil money penalties, and censure, revocation, and limitations on activities.
- Stock Talk
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Antonio Linares
$AMD is positioned to dominate AI at the edge.

When $AMD acquired Xilinx, most said that FPGAs were not ready to be used to accelerate AI. I said $AMD was going to make it happen.

In Q1 2024 $AMD announced its second generation of Versal adaptive SoCs that basically accelerate AI at the edge at a cost that's hard for competitors to match.

"Longer term, we see AI at the edge as a large growth opportunity that will drive increased demand for compute across a wide range of devices.

To address this demand, we announced our second generation of Versal adaptive SoCs that deliver a 3 times increase in AI tops per watt and a 10 times greater scaler compute performance compared to our prior generation of industry-leading adaptive SoCs."

This tech enables "customers to rapidly add highly performant and efficient AI capabilities to a broad range of products."
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Offshore
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Antonio Linares
$PLTR traded at $35 without AIP Bootcamps. https://t.co/dgMEd0cEYb
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Antonio Linares
The market is slowly coming to terms with the idea that higher rates don’t matter for truly excellent companies like $AMD, $PLTR, $SPOT and $TSLA.
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Antonio Linares
RT @NeoKJ2505: @alc2022 I agree. I think people underestimate amd’s strength in edge computing. Right now, people are focusing all on cloud computing. But cloud can’t be represent all ai stuff. That’s why people think amd is lagging nvda so much…
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Offshore
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The Long Investor
$PLTR the set up is there....just needs a solid earnings now

$PLTR has exploded straight after its last two earnings reports and declined leading up to both reports too.

If history is repeating itself, then we expect the same reaction on the 6th of May.

Testing the 200 Day MA before this happens would be ideal at $18.70 https://t.co/aIlsVgVoHA
- The Long Investor
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Offshore
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Brandon Beylo
Is a 76% increase in revenue and a 3,483% increase in net income good?

Asking for a friend because that's what Idaho Strategic $IDR just did.

Incredible start to 2024, but this is just the beginning.

#gold https://t.co/COrdHtc8Uy
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $ACN 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 24.50x
•10-Year Mean: 23.98x

•NTM FCF Yield: 5.42%
•10-Year Mean: 5.20%

As you can see, $ACN appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~2% LESS in earnings per share & ~4% MORE in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ACN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET
•Cash & Equivalents: $5.12B
•Long-Term Debt: $71.64M

$ACN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 174x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL
•2018: 54.2%
•2019: 42.1%
•2020: 30.8%
•2021: 32.0%
•2022: 38.2%
•2023: 33.8%

RETURN ON EQUITY
•2018: 41.2%
•2019: 37.9%
•2020: 32.1%
•2021: 31.9%
•2022: 32.6%
•2023: 28.5%

$ACN has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES
•2013: $28.56B
•2023: $64.11B
•CAGR: 8.42%

FREE CASH FLOW
•2013: $2.93B
•2023: $8.99B
•CAGR: 11.86%

NORMALIZED EPS
•2013: $4.21
•2023: $11.67
•CAGR: 10.73%

SHARE BUYBACKS
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 713.34M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 637.95M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $ACN increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)

PAID DIVIDENDS
•2013: $1.62
•2023: $4.48
•CAGR: 10.70%

MARGINS
•LTM Gross Margins: 32.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 15.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 10.9%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~2% LESS in EPS & ~4% MORE FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ACN has to grow earnings at a 12.25% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (12.25%) required growth rate:

2024E: $12.17 (4.3% YoY) *FY August
2025E: $13.20 (8.5% YoY)
2026E: $14.83 (12.4% YoY)

$ACN has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ACN ends 2026 with $14.83 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

25x P/E: $370.75💵 … ~10.3% CAGR

24x P/E: $355.92💵 … ~8.4% CAGR

23x P/E: $341.09💵 … ~6.5% CAGR

22x P/E: $326.26💵 … ~4.5% CAGR

As you can see, we’d have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above its 10-year average & above what’s arguably justified given its growth rate)

Today at $306💵 it appears that $ACN is a wonderful company trading at a fair price

I’d reconsider $ACN closer to $285💵 or at ~22.78x forward estimates (~7% below today’s price) where I can possibly expect near double digit return potential assuming a 23x end multiple in 2026

#stocks #investing

Thank you @WisedelCapital for the request
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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