The Long Investor
$AMZN the last minute sell off has just about been recovered.

So why didn’t $AMZN announce a dividend or share buyback?

Because there is no point throwing a single bag of sand against a burst dam.

Well played $AMZN, use the money to grow. https://t.co/AnkAkSb1yx
tweet

The Long Investor
Someone check on @fundstrat and see if this is the rally he spoke about on CNBC

Shocking tactics from Wall Street as usual and we have seen this so many times.

Desperate to use the retail investor as exit liquidity
tweet

The Long Investor
RT @unusual_whales: Advanced Micro Devices $AMD Earnings:

EPS: $0.62 vs $0.61
Revenue: $5.5B vs $5.45B

Link: https://t.co/NZ42mMeaYO
tweet

 Q-Cap 
Starbucks earnings summary below: https://t.co/cKclJli4Zf
tweet

The Institutional Limited Partner
KKR—For those interested in the gross-to-net spread, here are the net performances (as of Q3 2023) for some of the funds.

KKR NA XI : 2.2X / 19.8%
KKR NA XII : 1.82x / 18.9%

KKR Europe I : 2.1X / 19.73%
KKR Europe II : 1.3x / 4.81%
KKR Europe III : 1.6x / 11.01%
KKKR EUrope V : 1.2x / 10.7%

KKR Asian fund II : 1.1x / 3.38%
KKR Asian Fund III : 1.81x / 21.1%
@BoringBiz_ @zenobcap @connornowinski @svg_floris

KKR delivering 26% gross IRR over 48 years is impressive, no matter how you cut it

Even more impressive is that none of their funds (out of 25) have lost money

22 out of 25, or 88%, have outperformed the benchmark https://t.co/W8g4zfLWmr - Boring_Business
tweet

Antonio Linares
You read about $AMZN ’s stellar financial performance first in my $AMZN deep dive. https://t.co/rI5k3RLoex
tweet

Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Some $AMZN Q1 Earnings Highlights 👇🏽

Important to note AWS & Advertising Growth*

☁️ AWS $25.03B (+17% YoY)
💸 ADS $11.82B (+24% YoY)

*Growth Excluding F/X

#stocks #investing https://t.co/ENLIZk7LnK
tweet

Antonio Linares
🎯🎯

$AMZN ‘s free cash flow is set to rise rapidly in the coming years, and there's a simple reason behind it.

Over the past two decades, every time Amazon increased its capital expenditure (capex), its free cash flow initially dipped, only to soar to new all-time highs down the line.

This phenomenon can be explained by Amazon's approach to capex.

Each increment in capex serves as a new operational baseline to improve customer service and expand their customer base.

During these periods, the company faces added costs as it waits for demand to catch up and for new facilities to become fully operational.

As a result, operating margin and free cash flow temporarily suffer.

However, Amazon has consistently emerged stronger on the other side, defying consensus predictions.

The company's operational leverage and free cash flow per share improve significantly after each capex cycle.

This pattern, that I have termed "Amazon's Capex Ghost," has been a powerful mental model for long-term Amazon investors.

Notably, the most recent capex cycle from 2020 to 2022 was the largest ever, with the fulfillment network doubling in size and labor shortages affecting the working capital situation.

Consequently, free cash flow experienced a substantial decline.

$AMZN's focus on continuously improving its three fundamental customer pillars (price, convenience, and selection) and implementing cost and price reductions has been instrumental in boosting free cash flow per share after each capex cycle.

The driving force behind this phenomenon lies in qualitative organizational properties that cannot be fully captured by numbers.

Amazon's ability to efficiently deploy and operate additional capacity stems from properties such as its culture of experimentation and learning, genuine customer-centricity, and high standards that repel mediocrity and attract excellence.

These properties not only contribute to Amazon's ability to bounce back from capex cycles but also enable successful expansion into new businesses, as exemplified by the rise of Amazon Web Services (AWS) as the company's profit engine.

In summary, Amazon's trajectory is driven by its commitment to delighting customers and the unique organizational properties that fuel its efficient growth.

The company's long-term prospects remain promising as it continues to focus on improving customer experience and expanding its businesses.

Free cash flow is likely to bounce back up, harder than it has fallen over the last few years.

Stay tuned for more insights on Amazon's fascinating journey! - Antonio Linares
tweet

The Long Investor
$SPY You see the 50 Day MA rejected

What we see:
- Wave 5 completed at the target level
- Wave 5 entered a tight ascending triangle, typical of Wave 5
- Market rallied 26% in 5 months in Wave 5
- Market bounced in 3 waves to the 50 Day MA, also signs of a lower low next.
- RSI and MACD on the weekly now descending after a 2 year high
- S&P PE was at an average of 29 at its height of Wave 5, double the historical average.
- HOT CPI - not expected
- US 10 Yr extending to 5%
- GOLD making ATH’s
- Yen collapsing
- Bonds collapsing

You see a rejection a the 50 Day MA, we see the big picture.
tweet

Antonio Linares
$AMZN is obviously going to be a $10T company
tweet

The Long Investor
RT @TheLongInvest: If you had to choose one of these beaten down stocks to buy, which one would you go for?

$SOFI
$INTC
$BABA
$NKE
$PFE
$DNA
$SNAP
tweet

Brandon Beylo
RT @marketplunger1: Here's a simple strategy in a world where nobody cares to re-rate your cheap stocks, and they stay cheap forever.

1) Find companies that nobody cares about that are trading at ridiculously low valuations.

2) Ensure that those companies will keep earning profits at some sustainable level.

3) Buy the ones explicitly saying,"“we will return most of our earnings to shareholders through dividends, buybacks, or both"”

It is painfully simple but significantly narrows the investable universe of "cheap" stocks.

Also reveals how important capital allocation is even amidst the cheapest stocks.
tweet