Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: 3 months ago I shared my analysis on $RMD suggesting it was undervalued & a good consideration at $174๐Ÿ’ต

Since that post, $RMD is now trading ~25% higher

As I stated in my analysis:

โ€œAs you can see, weโ€™d have to assume at least 25x earnings for $RMD to have attractive CAGR potential

This is well below $RMD 10-Year average multiple of 28.96x

Yet, I believe the 10-Year multiple is elevated and we shouldnโ€™t rely on it

Given its quality & historical growth rates, I believe itโ€™s reasonable for $RMD to trade somewhere in between 25x - 27x, making it a fair purchase today at $174๐Ÿ’ตโ€

#stocks #investing
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Not every business that could be undervalued will react this way shortly after its share price trades at an attractive range

And if youโ€™re a long-term investor โ€” what happens over the course of 3 weeks, 3 months, or even 3 years shouldnโ€™t really matter ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

Looking back at these short-term increases, HOWEVER, reinforces & strengthens the conviction an investor can have when relying on fundamental analysis ๐Ÿ’ฏ
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๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ."

A sober valuation analysis on $RMD ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 23.57x
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 28.96x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 4.29%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 3.46%

As you can see, $RMD appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~23% MORE in earnings per share & ~24% MORE in FCF per share๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $RMD is a quality business

BALANCE SHEETโœ…
โ€ขCash & Equivalents: $220.92M
โ€ขTotal Debt: $1.35B

$RMD has a good balance sheet & 16x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITALโœ…
โ€ข2018: 23.8%
โ€ข2019: 19.0%
โ€ข2020: 21.2%
โ€ข2021: 24.9%
โ€ข2022: 23.4%
โ€ข2033: 19.9%

RETURN ON EQUITYโœ…
โ€ข2018: 15.7%
โ€ข2019: 19.6%
โ€ข2020: 27.2%
โ€ข2021: 17.6%
โ€ข2022: 25.0%
โ€ข2023: 24.9%

$RMD has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2013: $1.51B
โ€ข2023: $4.22B
โ€ขCAGR: 10.82%

FREE CASH FLOWโœ…* (LTM $814.27M)
โ€ข2013: $339.24M
โ€ข2023: $573.63M
โ€ขCAGR: 5.39%

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2013: $2.27
โ€ข2023: $6.44
โ€ขCAGR: 10.99%

SHARE BUYBACKSโŒ
โ€ข2013 Shares Outstanding: 146.42M
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 147.54M

MARGINSโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 56.0%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 26.6%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 20.7%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~23% MORE in EPS & ~24% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $RMD has to grow earnings at a! 11.79% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (11.79%) required growth rate:

2024E: $7.21 (12.0% YoY) *FY Jun
2025E: $7.94 (10.1% YoY)
2026E: $8.70 (9.7% YoY)

$RMD has a solid track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโ€™s assume $RMD ends 2026 with $8.70 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

27x P/E: $234.90๐Ÿ’ต [...]
Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ RT @DimitryNakhla: 3 months ago I shared my analysis on $RMD suggesting it was undervalued & a good consideration at $174๐Ÿ’ต Since that post, $RMD is now trading ~25% higher As I stated in my analysis: โ€œAs you can see, weโ€™dโ€ฆ
โ€ฆ ~14.3% CAGR

25x P/E: $217.50๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~10.7% CAGR

23x P/E: $200.10๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~7.0% CAGR

As you can see, weโ€™d have to assume at least 25x earnings for $RMD to have attractive CAGR potential

This is well below $RMD 10-Year average multiple of 28.96x

Yet, I believe the 10-Year multiple is elevated and we shouldnโ€™t rely on it

Given its quality & historical growth rates, I believe itโ€™s reasonable for $RMD to trade somewhere in between 25x - 27x, making it a fair purchase today at $174๐Ÿ’ต

However, if you want a greater margin of safety, $RMD is an even better consideration at $148๐Ÿ’ต or for 20x NTM earnings

#stocks #investing
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๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
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Offshore
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๎จ€ Q-Cap ๎จ€
Buffett is also my favorite sex therapist https://t.co/EstvHkXMhQ
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The Long Investor
How many times have we heard of short sellers getting burnt by $TSLA (down $6 Billion this month)

You are buying @elonmusk when you are buying $TSLA

He has the ability to destroy you and your shorts in one tweet.

Heโ€™s that CEO who will jump on a plane and go to China to get what he needs to get done and will do this at the drop of a hat.

I will never for the life of me understand why anyone feels they have the knowledge to short any stock.
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The Long Investor
$PYPL is up 32% over the last 6 months

This not a meme stock

Itโ€™s a $70 Billion market cap company and to be up 32% in a half a year is not a bad performance.

You want a steady climb in the right direction, you donโ€™t want parabolic moves, charts break down when this happens.
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The Long Investor
If you had to choose one of these beaten down stocks to buy, which one would you go for?

$SOFI
$INTC
$BABA
$NKE
$PFE
$DNA
$SNAP
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Offshore
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The Long Investor
Out of the 36 Mega Cap Companies in the S&P 500

17 of them are below their 50 Day MA

$MSFT
$META
$BRK-B
$LLY
$V
$MA

And 5 are below their 200 Day MA:

$AAPL
$TSLA
$ADBE
$JNJ
$UNH https://t.co/sMxWOwleJ4
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
NOTABLE EARNINGS REPORTS 04/30/24 ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ

Before Open โ˜€๏ธ

$PYPL $LLY $KO $MCD $AMT $ITW $APD
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After Close ๐ŸŒ“

$AMZN $AMD $SBUX $SYK
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#stocks #investing
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Offshore
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๎จ€ Q-Cap ๎จ€
$MSTR

Saylor is gonna leverage the shit out of this thing.

He's going for "richest man in the world" or Bill Hwang status.

There won't be an in between.

" Strong Capital Structure" is my fave part of the slide https://t.co/HAeoftAGdh
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AkhenOsiris
$TSLA

Adam "$100 ๐Ÿป case in play" Jonas is back:

Jonas highlights the symbolic importance of Muskโ€™s engagement with Chinese officials, suggesting that it could alleviate worries about Teslaโ€™s profitability in China, which reportedly contributes up to half of Teslaโ€™s profits.

Jonas also delves into the intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics, stating that the ongoing revolution in Large Language Models (LLM) and General AI (Gen AI) is still in its early stages in terms of merging with robotics.

Traditionally, LLM and robotics were viewed as separate fields, but Jonas suggests thereโ€™s significant overlap in how advancements in LLM can expedite the training and learning processes of robots, whether theyโ€™re shaped like cars or humanoid.

He metaphorically describes the relationship between AI and robotics, likening it to the AI โ€œbrainโ€ searching for its robotic โ€œbody,โ€ with the body serving as the vessel for the AIโ€™s โ€œsoul.โ€ This metaphor underscores the symbiotic relationship between AI and robotics in their development and evolution.
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN

Blog Post:

After delivering at our fastest speeds ever in 2023, Amazon set new records for Prime delivery speeds in the first three months of 2024, with more than two billion items arriving the same or next day to Prime members around the world. In March, nearly 60% of Prime member orders arrived the same or next day across the top 60 largest U.S. metro areas, and we delivered three out of four items the same or next day in London, Tokyo, and Toronto.
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AkhenOsiris
High chance of backfiring ๐Ÿคฆ๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

McKinsey boss tries to boost staff morale amid layoffs by blasting Eminem, Bob Marley and Chumbawamba. fortune.com/2024/04/29/mckinโ€ฆ - FORTUNE
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AkhenOsiris
$CRWD

CrowdStrike today announced that it has been named a Leader in the IDC MarketScape: Worldwide Managed Detection and Response Services (MDR) 2024 Vendor Assessment1.

CrowdStrike was also recently named a Leader in Frost & Sullivan's Frost Radar: Managed Detection and Response 2024, recognized as the growth leader among 22 vendors evaluated and an "innovator and powerhouse" in the MDR sector.

The IDC MarketScape report went on to say, "IDC recognizes that there is a push โ€˜to the platform' that is occurring in cybersecurity. This is worthy of mention as CrowdStrike has a wide depth and breadth of capabilities built into its Falcon platform that provides the technology muscle for its MDR offering."
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