Offshore
Photo
Antonio Linares
Iโm selling 4 units of my 2 Hour Deep Diver course for just $150 instead of $199.
The 4 units will take around 30 minutes to be sold out.
The price will go up to $250 soon. https://t.co/jMXkhC0qKx
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Iโm selling 4 units of my 2 Hour Deep Diver course for just $150 instead of $199.
The 4 units will take around 30 minutes to be sold out.
The price will go up to $250 soon. https://t.co/jMXkhC0qKx
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Antonio Linares
2 left
tweet
2 left
Iโm selling 4 units of my 2 Hour Deep Diver course for just $150 instead of $199.
The 4 units will take around 30 minutes to be sold out.
The price will go up to $250 soon. https://t.co/jMXkhC0qKx tweet
Offshore
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Brandon Beylo
Robert Friedland getting into the meme game is my favorite part of the commodity bull cycle.
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Robert Friedland getting into the meme game is my favorite part of the commodity bull cycle.
https://t.co/k0acMch6fW tweet
Offshore
Video
Brandon Beylo
Value investors passing on every great business so they can buy a dilapidated steel mill at 2x earnings and 1/2 replacement cost. https://t.co/KjmMDLs6lZ
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Value investors passing on every great business so they can buy a dilapidated steel mill at 2x earnings and 1/2 replacement cost. https://t.co/KjmMDLs6lZ
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Offshore
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The Long Investor
$SPY if you want to see the future, study the past.
MACD and RSI on the weekly chart is as clear as it needs to be. https://t.co/Ezv7z7gHQf
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$SPY if you want to see the future, study the past.
MACD and RSI on the weekly chart is as clear as it needs to be. https://t.co/Ezv7z7gHQf
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 22.81x
โข5-Year Mean: 23.49x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.77%
โข5-Year Mean: 4.19%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~3% MORE in earnings per share & ~13% LESS in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $108.09B
โขLong-Term Debt: $13.22B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 332x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 16.4%
โข2020: 16.2%
โข2021: 27.6%
โข2022: 26.1%
โข2023: 28.1%
โขLTM: 30.2%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 18.1%
โข2020: 19.0%
โข2021: 32.1%
โข2022: 23.6%
โข2023: 27.4%
โขLTM: 29.8%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2018: $136.82B
โข2023: $307.39
โขCAGR: 17.57%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2018: $22.83B
โข2023: $69.50B
โขCAGR: 24.93%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2018: $2.19
โข2023: $5.80
โขCAGR: 21.50%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 12.65B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.0%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~11.1% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 57.3%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 30.3%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 25.9%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~3% MORE in EPS & ~13% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at an 11.41% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (11.41%) required growth rate:
2024E: $7.50 (29.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.33 (11.0% YoY)
2026E: $9.56 (14.7% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $9.56 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $229.44๐ต โฆ ~11.4% CAGR
23x P/E: $219.88๐ต โฆ ~9.7% CAGR
22x P/E: $210.32๐ต โฆ ~7.9% CAGR
21x P/E: 200.76๐ต โฆ ~6.0% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume 23x - 24x earnings (a multiple near its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At 24x earnings, $GOOG CAGR potential is solid & itโs not unreasonable for the business to trade for 24x (given current growth rate estimates, its moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Today at $173.69๐ต $GOOG appears to be fairly valued
Those investing today can do well & expect decent returns, albeit without much of a margin of safety
$GOOG presents excellent value & a wide margin of safety closer to $150๐ต or 16.2% below todayโs price
At $150๐ต, investors can reasonably expect ~12% CAGR even assuming 21x earnings
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 22.81x
โข5-Year Mean: 23.49x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.77%
โข5-Year Mean: 4.19%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~3% MORE in earnings per share & ~13% LESS in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $108.09B
โขLong-Term Debt: $13.22B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 332x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 16.4%
โข2020: 16.2%
โข2021: 27.6%
โข2022: 26.1%
โข2023: 28.1%
โขLTM: 30.2%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 18.1%
โข2020: 19.0%
โข2021: 32.1%
โข2022: 23.6%
โข2023: 27.4%
โขLTM: 29.8%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2018: $136.82B
โข2023: $307.39
โขCAGR: 17.57%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2018: $22.83B
โข2023: $69.50B
โขCAGR: 24.93%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2018: $2.19
โข2023: $5.80
โขCAGR: 21.50%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 12.65B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.0%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~11.1% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 57.3%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 30.3%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 25.9%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~3% MORE in EPS & ~13% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at an 11.41% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (11.41%) required growth rate:
2024E: $7.50 (29.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.33 (11.0% YoY)
2026E: $9.56 (14.7% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $9.56 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $229.44๐ต โฆ ~11.4% CAGR
23x P/E: $219.88๐ต โฆ ~9.7% CAGR
22x P/E: $210.32๐ต โฆ ~7.9% CAGR
21x P/E: 200.76๐ต โฆ ~6.0% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume 23x - 24x earnings (a multiple near its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At 24x earnings, $GOOG CAGR potential is solid & itโs not unreasonable for the business to trade for 24x (given current growth rate estimates, its moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Today at $173.69๐ต $GOOG appears to be fairly valued
Those investing today can do well & expect decent returns, albeit without much of a margin of safety
$GOOG presents excellent value & a wide margin of safety closer to $150๐ต or 16.2% below todayโs price
At $150๐ต, investors can reasonably expect ~12% CAGR even assuming 21x earnings
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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