Offshore
Photo
Q-Cap
$SNAP this is the American Dream
The is why millions of people try to cross the border illegally
Can you blame them https://t.co/fXEMyFqnP0
tweet
$SNAP this is the American Dream
The is why millions of people try to cross the border illegally
Can you blame them https://t.co/fXEMyFqnP0
tweet
The Long Investor
RT @JonErlichman: 5 year earnings growth estimates:
AMD: +1,601%
Uber: +1,454%
Intel: +1,441%
Shopify: +1,238%
Palo Alto Networks: +922%
Amazon: +254%
ServiceNow: +252%
Salesforce: +208%
Tesla: +205%
Oracle: +197%
Broadcom: +170%
Intuit: +156%
Netflix: +153%
Nvidia: +137%
Adobe: +119%
Microsoft: +110%
Meta: +87%
Alphabet: +82%
Booking: +79%
Qualcomm: +76%
Texas Instruments: +59%
IBM: +47%
Applied Materials: +41%
Apple: +28%
Lam Research: +28%
Cisco: +25%
Airbnb: +14%
(average analyst estimates)
tweet
RT @JonErlichman: 5 year earnings growth estimates:
AMD: +1,601%
Uber: +1,454%
Intel: +1,441%
Shopify: +1,238%
Palo Alto Networks: +922%
Amazon: +254%
ServiceNow: +252%
Salesforce: +208%
Tesla: +205%
Oracle: +197%
Broadcom: +170%
Intuit: +156%
Netflix: +153%
Nvidia: +137%
Adobe: +119%
Microsoft: +110%
Meta: +87%
Alphabet: +82%
Booking: +79%
Qualcomm: +76%
Texas Instruments: +59%
IBM: +47%
Applied Materials: +41%
Apple: +28%
Lam Research: +28%
Cisco: +25%
Airbnb: +14%
(average analyst estimates)
tweet
The Long Investor
$SPY $511 is the 50 Day MA, this can still be tested and rejected
As it has on the $BTC chart
Which has been leading the market
tweet
$SPY $511 is the 50 Day MA, this can still be tested and rejected
As it has on the $BTC chart
Which has been leading the market
$SPY 50 Day MA is at $510 right now so there is still more room for this relief bounce as $META, $MSFT and $GOOG report today and tomorrow.
A rejection at this level and I expect another leg down tweet
The Long Investor
RT @unusual_whales: Microsfot, $MSFT, earnings:
- Revenue: $61.9 billion, est: $60.87 billion
- EPS: $2.94
https://t.co/E9SOE2vSsi
tweet
RT @unusual_whales: Microsfot, $MSFT, earnings:
- Revenue: $61.9 billion, est: $60.87 billion
- EPS: $2.94
https://t.co/E9SOE2vSsi
tweet
Unusual Whales
Unusual Whales News | Market Analysis, Options Insights & Trading News
Stay updated with the latest market analysis, options trading insights, financial news, and educational content from the Unusual Whales blog.
The Long Investor
$GOOG $70 Billion buyback and dividend.
They went aggressive
tweet
$GOOG $70 Billion buyback and dividend.
They went aggressive
$GOOGL $GOOG
*ON APRIL 25, 2024, ALPHABET'S BOARD OF DIRECTORS ALSO AUTHORIZED COMPANY TO REPURCHASE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL $70.0 BLN OF COMPANY'S CLASS A AND CLASS C SHARES
*APPROVED INITIATION OF A CASH DIVIDEND PROGRAM, AND DECLARED A CASH DIVIDEND OF $0.20 PER SHARE
⚠️*COMPANY INTENDS TO PAY QUARTERLY CASH DIVIDENDS IN FUTURE tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
On April 5, I shared my analysis on $GOOG suggesting it was undervalued & a good consideration at $153💵
Since that post, $GOOG is trading +17% higher, or at $179💵 after hours 📈
As I stated in my analysis:
“As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume 22x - 23x earnings (a multiple below both its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At 24x earnings, $GOOG CAGR potential is excellent & it’s not unreasonable for the business to trade for 24x (given current growth rate estimates)
Today at $153💵 $GOOG appears to be a good consideration for investment”
$GOOGL
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲."
A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 22.37x
•5-Year Mean: 24.67x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.16%
•5-Year Mean: 4.32%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~10% MORE in earnings per share & ~4% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $110.92B
•Long-Term Debt: $11.87B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 330x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $55.52B
•2023: $307.39
•CAGR: 18.66%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $11.30B
•2023: $69.50B
•CAGR: 19.91%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.19
•2023: $5.80
•CAGR: 10.22%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 13.55B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.72B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~6.1%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~6.5% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 59.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 28.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 24.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~10% MORE in EPS & ~4% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at an 11.19% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (11.19%) required growth rate:
2024E: $6.79 (17.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $7.83 (15.3% YoY)
2026E: $9.04 (15.5% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $9.04 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $216.96💵 … ~13.5% CAGR
23x P/E: $207.92💵 … ~11.8% CAGR
22x P/E: $198.88💵 … ~10.00% CAGR
21x P/E: $189.84💵 … ~8.2% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume 22x - 23x earnings (a multiple below both its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At 24x earnings, $GOOG CAGR potential is excellent & it’s not unreasonable for the business[...]
On April 5, I shared my analysis on $GOOG suggesting it was undervalued & a good consideration at $153💵
Since that post, $GOOG is trading +17% higher, or at $179💵 after hours 📈
As I stated in my analysis:
“As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume 22x - 23x earnings (a multiple below both its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At 24x earnings, $GOOG CAGR potential is excellent & it’s not unreasonable for the business to trade for 24x (given current growth rate estimates)
Today at $153💵 $GOOG appears to be a good consideration for investment”
$GOOGL
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲."
A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 22.37x
•5-Year Mean: 24.67x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.16%
•5-Year Mean: 4.32%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~10% MORE in earnings per share & ~4% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $110.92B
•Long-Term Debt: $11.87B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 330x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $55.52B
•2023: $307.39
•CAGR: 18.66%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $11.30B
•2023: $69.50B
•CAGR: 19.91%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.19
•2023: $5.80
•CAGR: 10.22%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 13.55B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.72B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~6.1%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~6.5% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 59.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 28.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 24.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~10% MORE in EPS & ~4% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at an 11.19% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (11.19%) required growth rate:
2024E: $6.79 (17.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $7.83 (15.3% YoY)
2026E: $9.04 (15.5% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $9.04 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $216.96💵 … ~13.5% CAGR
23x P/E: $207.92💵 … ~11.8% CAGR
22x P/E: $198.88💵 … ~10.00% CAGR
21x P/E: $189.84💵 … ~8.2% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume 22x - 23x earnings (a multiple below both its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At 24x earnings, $GOOG CAGR potential is excellent & it’s not unreasonable for the business[...]