AkhenOsiris
RT @qcapital2020: $META
My 2 cent on the post earning move (other than it was already up 450% from the October 2022 bottom without any meaningful pullback).
Shareholders have PTSD from Zuck overspending on the Metaverse ambitions in 2021-2022 and running a huge loss with Reality Labs with no achievable timeframe for ROI.
In essence , he was investing for the future but with little to no short or medium term ROI and the long term was also very questionable. The vision wasn’t clear. This caused a serious and justifiable short term repricing of the stock in 2022. Markets being markets they overshot to the downside given at one point a 8x Operating Income multiple.
Fast forward to todays earnings. Numbers for the quarter were fine. The issue comes mainly imho from shareholders listening to Zuck talk about another « investment cycle » with no short term ROI in sight. But I think where the market might’ve gotten it wrong today was that this AI infrastructure spent will have a much shorter timeframe and much more quantifiable return for the business. Meta AI has already been integrated and as Zuck mentioned AI is being used to target ads almost to the tune of 50% of feeds. Let’s not forget ads are 95%+ of revenues and any meaningful upgrade through AI for ads can have a significant impact to the bottom line.
My guess is this investment cycle will be somewhat long perhaps 3-5yrs but the ROI will be a lot more quantifiable , justifiable and crucial to the next leg of the life cycle for the company. This does not feel like the Metaverse 2.0.
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RT @qcapital2020: $META
My 2 cent on the post earning move (other than it was already up 450% from the October 2022 bottom without any meaningful pullback).
Shareholders have PTSD from Zuck overspending on the Metaverse ambitions in 2021-2022 and running a huge loss with Reality Labs with no achievable timeframe for ROI.
In essence , he was investing for the future but with little to no short or medium term ROI and the long term was also very questionable. The vision wasn’t clear. This caused a serious and justifiable short term repricing of the stock in 2022. Markets being markets they overshot to the downside given at one point a 8x Operating Income multiple.
Fast forward to todays earnings. Numbers for the quarter were fine. The issue comes mainly imho from shareholders listening to Zuck talk about another « investment cycle » with no short term ROI in sight. But I think where the market might’ve gotten it wrong today was that this AI infrastructure spent will have a much shorter timeframe and much more quantifiable return for the business. Meta AI has already been integrated and as Zuck mentioned AI is being used to target ads almost to the tune of 50% of feeds. Let’s not forget ads are 95%+ of revenues and any meaningful upgrade through AI for ads can have a significant impact to the bottom line.
My guess is this investment cycle will be somewhat long perhaps 3-5yrs but the ROI will be a lot more quantifiable , justifiable and crucial to the next leg of the life cycle for the company. This does not feel like the Metaverse 2.0.
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Offshore
Photo
The Long Investor
$BTC no changes to the chart below.
Since then the price has tested the 50 Day MA and rejected.
Bitcoin is following the market.
It’s not considered a safe haven for me but it will still present a great opportunity when Wave C completes
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$BTC no changes to the chart below.
Since then the price has tested the 50 Day MA and rejected.
Bitcoin is following the market.
It’s not considered a safe haven for me but it will still present a great opportunity when Wave C completes
$BTC let there be no doubt who has been correct on $BTC for the last year.
Chart below on the 16th of March and today, with no changes.
Wave A is currently underway, 0.38 fib is the target. https://t.co/GcKUVTzYtM tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Long Investor
RT @TheLongInvest: $BTC I brought you up from $19,000 to $73,000
Now I'll bring you down.
This pull back is an opportunity, when this ABC correction is complete, $BTC will start its next aggressive move up. https://t.co/7zGJoZ1ZFV
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RT @TheLongInvest: $BTC I brought you up from $19,000 to $73,000
Now I'll bring you down.
This pull back is an opportunity, when this ABC correction is complete, $BTC will start its next aggressive move up. https://t.co/7zGJoZ1ZFV
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Offshore
Photo
Brandon Beylo
Follow me for more tennis insights. https://t.co/OC2HJAsPGI
tweet
Follow me for more tennis insights. https://t.co/OC2HJAsPGI
@TheTennisLetter NGL, this match will be closer than most people think.
Will delete if wrong, obv. tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $MSCI 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.33x
•10-Year Mean: 34.93x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.64%
•10-Year Mean: 3.37%
As you can see, $MSCI appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~19% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSCI is a good business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $519.31M
•Long-Term Debt: $4.50B
$MSCI has an ok balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating, & 6.80x FFO Interest Coverate
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 23.4%
•2020: 28.6%
•2021: 26.5%
•2022: 33.0%
•2023: 35.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2019: (463.5%)
•2020: (231.5%)
•2021: (239.3%)
•2022: (148.6%)
•2023: (131.4%)
*ROE negative due to heavy use of debt
$MSCI has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $913.36M
•2023: $2,528.92M
•CAGR: 10.72%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $280.93M
•2023: $1,213.27M
•CAGR: 15.75%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.16
•2023: $13.52
•CAGR: 20.13%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 121.07M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 79.60M
By reducing its shares outstanding 34.2%, $MSCI increased its EPS by 51.9% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 82.2%
•LTM Operating Margins: 53.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 44.6%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~19% MORE in EPS & ~9% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSCI has to grow earnings at an 14.67% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (14.67%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.84 (9.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $17.07 (15.0% YoY)
2026E: $19.39 (13.6% YoY)
$MSCI has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MSCI ends 2026 with $19.39 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $620.48💵 … ~14.6% CAGR
31x P/E: $601.09💵 … ~13.2% CAGR
30x P/E: $581.70💵 … ~11.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $562.31💵 … ~10.5% CAGR
28x P/E: $542.92💵 … ~9.1% CAGR
As you can see, $MSCI appears to have double-digit return potential if we assume >29x earnings, a level of fundamental support (first green line in P/E chart) & a level below its 10-year average multiple of 34.93x
Given its wide moat, exemplary capital allocation, & linearity in its EPS & FCF, I believe 29x is fair for $MSCI & leaves us with some margin of safety
Today at $446💵 my research leads me to believe that $MSCI is a worthwhile consideration for investment
Knowing that $MSCI could trade down a bit more (closer to 25x as you’ll see in second green line in P/E chart) I would piece into the position
In other words, if I wanted to allocate 5% to $MSCI, I’d likely look to initiate a 3% - 3.5% allocation & leave room to add more & make it 5% if we see $MSCI trade between $380💵 - $400💵
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $MSCI 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.33x
•10-Year Mean: 34.93x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.64%
•10-Year Mean: 3.37%
As you can see, $MSCI appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~19% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSCI is a good business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $519.31M
•Long-Term Debt: $4.50B
$MSCI has an ok balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating, & 6.80x FFO Interest Coverate
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 23.4%
•2020: 28.6%
•2021: 26.5%
•2022: 33.0%
•2023: 35.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2019: (463.5%)
•2020: (231.5%)
•2021: (239.3%)
•2022: (148.6%)
•2023: (131.4%)
*ROE negative due to heavy use of debt
$MSCI has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $913.36M
•2023: $2,528.92M
•CAGR: 10.72%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $280.93M
•2023: $1,213.27M
•CAGR: 15.75%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.16
•2023: $13.52
•CAGR: 20.13%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 121.07M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 79.60M
By reducing its shares outstanding 34.2%, $MSCI increased its EPS by 51.9% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 82.2%
•LTM Operating Margins: 53.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 44.6%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~19% MORE in EPS & ~9% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSCI has to grow earnings at an 14.67% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (14.67%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.84 (9.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $17.07 (15.0% YoY)
2026E: $19.39 (13.6% YoY)
$MSCI has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MSCI ends 2026 with $19.39 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $620.48💵 … ~14.6% CAGR
31x P/E: $601.09💵 … ~13.2% CAGR
30x P/E: $581.70💵 … ~11.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $562.31💵 … ~10.5% CAGR
28x P/E: $542.92💵 … ~9.1% CAGR
As you can see, $MSCI appears to have double-digit return potential if we assume >29x earnings, a level of fundamental support (first green line in P/E chart) & a level below its 10-year average multiple of 34.93x
Given its wide moat, exemplary capital allocation, & linearity in its EPS & FCF, I believe 29x is fair for $MSCI & leaves us with some margin of safety
Today at $446💵 my research leads me to believe that $MSCI is a worthwhile consideration for investment
Knowing that $MSCI could trade down a bit more (closer to 25x as you’ll see in second green line in P/E chart) I would piece into the position
In other words, if I wanted to allocate 5% to $MSCI, I’d likely look to initiate a 3% - 3.5% allocation & leave room to add more & make it 5% if we see $MSCI trade between $380💵 - $400💵
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
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Brandon Beylo
We are long Sylvania Platinum $SLP.L
SLP is a South African PGM miner.
It's one of the lowest-cost producers globally with half its market cap in cash w/ no debt.
You get buybacks + divvys too.
If $PGMs recover, it could print 140% of EV in FCF.
https://t.co/eu67o3joqY
tweet
We are long Sylvania Platinum $SLP.L
SLP is a South African PGM miner.
It's one of the lowest-cost producers globally with half its market cap in cash w/ no debt.
You get buybacks + divvys too.
If $PGMs recover, it could print 140% of EV in FCF.
https://t.co/eu67o3joqY
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Antonio Linares
RT @raja_babu_ji: @alc2022 Truer words were never spoken, its very easy to stay bearish and comment from the sidelines when you dont have any skin in the game, invest your money , make claims and come out successful on the other side.
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RT @raja_babu_ji: @alc2022 Truer words were never spoken, its very easy to stay bearish and comment from the sidelines when you dont have any skin in the game, invest your money , make claims and come out successful on the other side.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Brandon Beylo
Here's my write-up on Sylvania Platinum $SLP.L.
It's a hated commodity in a hated industry in a hated country.
SLP has half its market cap in cash with no debt and a history of shareholder returns.
Could print 140%+ of EV at normalized PGM prices.👇
https://t.co/eu67o3joqY
tweet
Here's my write-up on Sylvania Platinum $SLP.L.
It's a hated commodity in a hated industry in a hated country.
SLP has half its market cap in cash with no debt and a history of shareholder returns.
Could print 140%+ of EV at normalized PGM prices.👇
https://t.co/eu67o3joqY
Tomorrow I'm releasing my write-up on one of my favorite mining stocks.
It's a PGM miner with the following characteristics:
• Lowest-quartile AISCs
• Half its market cap in cash w/ no debt
• Buying back stock
• Dividend paying
• Insiders own shares
My other deep dives 👇 tweet
Brandon Beylo
RT @Ye_Olde_Holborn: >>>For anyone who’s interested in #platinum mining (& why wouldn’t you be) this is worth a read⬇️
Got Platinum?
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RT @Ye_Olde_Holborn: >>>For anyone who’s interested in #platinum mining (& why wouldn’t you be) this is worth a read⬇️
Got Platinum?
Here's my write-up on Sylvania Platinum $SLP.L.
It's a hated commodity in a hated industry in a hated country.
SLP has half its market cap in cash with no debt and a history of shareholder returns.
Could print 140%+ of EV at normalized PGM prices.👇
https://t.co/eu67o3joqY tweet