Offshore
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The Long Investor
High rates for longer eventually cause more damage than 3% inflation
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High rates for longer eventually cause more damage than 3% inflation
The US Mortgage Market is crashing. Hard.
With Mortgage Applications to buy a house plummeting -14% from last year.
And now languishing at their lowest level since 1995.
The housing market is frozen. And buyers aren't coming back until prices/rates drop. https://t.co/HO4V4ZjiKD tweet
Offshore
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Brandon Beylo
How would you grade this capital return policy?
Now.
What if I told you this company was a PGM miner?
Mining companies like this exist if you're willing to do the work of turning over rocks!
My write-up on this company drops tomorrow.
$PGMs
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How would you grade this capital return policy?
Now.
What if I told you this company was a PGM miner?
Mining companies like this exist if you're willing to do the work of turning over rocks!
My write-up on this company drops tomorrow.
$PGMs
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Offshore
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The Long Investor
$META I’ll just leave this here.
From the 11th of March
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$META I’ll just leave this here.
From the 11th of March
$META chart attached from October 27th 2022 when we caught the bottom at $87.
Now can we catch the Top at $523? https://t.co/W2ln5j954K tweet
Offshore
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Brandon Beylo
RT @YellowLabLife: The time has come…
The koala is bittersweet about this but it was inevitable…
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RT @YellowLabLife: The time has come…
The koala is bittersweet about this but it was inevitable…
Tomorrow I'm releasing my write-up on one of my favorite mining stocks.
It's a PGM miner with the following characteristics:
• Lowest-quartile AISCs
• Half its market cap in cash w/ no debt
• Buying back stock
• Dividend paying
• Insiders own shares
My other deep dives 👇 tweet
Q-Cap
Zuck knows if there was ever a time to mention that the AI infra build is a multi-year affair, it's after this epic run.
The most important quote from the c/c so far is about how when they decide to scale a product, they almost always front load the Capex and backload the profits.
It's cliché , but short term pains for long term gains.
This is not for the squiggly line minute chart fanatics lol
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Zuck knows if there was ever a time to mention that the AI infra build is a multi-year affair, it's after this epic run.
The most important quote from the c/c so far is about how when they decide to scale a product, they almost always front load the Capex and backload the profits.
It's cliché , but short term pains for long term gains.
This is not for the squiggly line minute chart fanatics lol
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Q-Cap
$META
My 2 cent on the post earning move (other than it was already up 450% from the October 2022 bottom without any meaningful pullback).
Shareholders have PTSD from Zuck overspending on the Metaverse ambitions in 2021-2022 and running a huge loss with Reality Labs with no achievable timeframe for ROI.
In essence , he was investing for the future but with little to no short or medium term ROI and the long term was also very questionable. The vision wasn’t clear. This caused a serious and justifiable short term repricing of the stock in 2022. Markets being markets they overshot to the downside given at one point a 8x Operating Income multiple.
Fast forward to todays earnings. Numbers for the quarter were fine. The issue comes mainly imho from shareholders listening to Zuck talk about another « investment cycle » with no short term ROI in sight. But I think where the market might’ve gotten it wrong today was that this AI infrastructure spent will have a much shorter timeframe and much more quantifiable return for the business. Meta AI has already been integrated and as Zuck mentioned AI is being used to target ads almost to the tune of 50% of feeds. Let’s not forget ads are 95%+ of revenues and any meaningful upgrade through AI for ads can have a significant impact to the bottom line.
My guess is this investment cycle will be somewhat long perhaps 3-5yrs but the ROI will be a lot more quantifiable , justifiable and crucial to the next leg of the life cycle for the company. This does not feel like the Metaverse 2.0.
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$META
My 2 cent on the post earning move (other than it was already up 450% from the October 2022 bottom without any meaningful pullback).
Shareholders have PTSD from Zuck overspending on the Metaverse ambitions in 2021-2022 and running a huge loss with Reality Labs with no achievable timeframe for ROI.
In essence , he was investing for the future but with little to no short or medium term ROI and the long term was also very questionable. The vision wasn’t clear. This caused a serious and justifiable short term repricing of the stock in 2022. Markets being markets they overshot to the downside given at one point a 8x Operating Income multiple.
Fast forward to todays earnings. Numbers for the quarter were fine. The issue comes mainly imho from shareholders listening to Zuck talk about another « investment cycle » with no short term ROI in sight. But I think where the market might’ve gotten it wrong today was that this AI infrastructure spent will have a much shorter timeframe and much more quantifiable return for the business. Meta AI has already been integrated and as Zuck mentioned AI is being used to target ads almost to the tune of 50% of feeds. Let’s not forget ads are 95%+ of revenues and any meaningful upgrade through AI for ads can have a significant impact to the bottom line.
My guess is this investment cycle will be somewhat long perhaps 3-5yrs but the ROI will be a lot more quantifiable , justifiable and crucial to the next leg of the life cycle for the company. This does not feel like the Metaverse 2.0.
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Clark Square Capital
Great thread on starting a fund
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Great thread on starting a fund
A year ago I left my job at a hedge fund in NY to start my own fund, Bristlemoon Capital. Some thoughts below on the journey of launching a fund (both the good and bad): tweet
Clark Square Capital
Also on the subject of starting a fund. Excellent thread.
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Also on the subject of starting a fund. Excellent thread.
Last of the Wall St bonus clearing this week or next depending on your tax choices. Thinking about starting your own fund?
Some unsolicited free advice worth a, well, hopefully of some well meaning help.
Some basic rules: tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
keyser soze (@KeyserSozeBro1) on X
Last of the Wall St bonus clearing this week or next depending on your tax choices. Thinking about starting your own fund?
Some unsolicited free advice worth a, well, hopefully of some well meaning help.
Some basic rules:
Some unsolicited free advice worth a, well, hopefully of some well meaning help.
Some basic rules:
Offshore
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Clark Square Capital
Just shared a new write-up. Be sure to find it at the usual place.
Thanks for reading. https://t.co/nXk2QnPFzy
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Just shared a new write-up. Be sure to find it at the usual place.
Thanks for reading. https://t.co/nXk2QnPFzy
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