Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
Enjoyed my first ever visit to a $GAW.L shop. Just wanted to understand the rules, different game options, basic strategy.
Great experience, very engaging.
I think I should try a Warhammer 40,000 with my son one day. https://t.co/ae2tTyxMik
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Enjoyed my first ever visit to a $GAW.L shop. Just wanted to understand the rules, different game options, basic strategy.
Great experience, very engaging.
I think I should try a Warhammer 40,000 with my son one day. https://t.co/ae2tTyxMik
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Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
A real moat…
PS: I am in Cardiff to attend $ADM.L agm tomorrow. https://t.co/p1APUwfbs8
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A real moat…
PS: I am in Cardiff to attend $ADM.L agm tomorrow. https://t.co/p1APUwfbs8
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Antonio Linares
$NFLX is up around 480X since IPO. At less than 10% of TV hours and with the company getting into gaming, $NFLX can evolve into a 1000-2000X investment.
There are so many lessons to be learned from this particular case, I’ve decided to turn the $NFLX update into a deep dive.
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$NFLX is up around 480X since IPO. At less than 10% of TV hours and with the company getting into gaming, $NFLX can evolve into a 1000-2000X investment.
There are so many lessons to be learned from this particular case, I’ve decided to turn the $NFLX update into a deep dive.
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Offshore
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The Long Investor
HSI up 6% for the week and now +1% YTD.
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HSI up 6% for the week and now +1% YTD.
HSI is -1% away from being green YTD
In Mid January, it was -12% YTD
In comparison:
$SPY was +10% YTD in March
Now +5% YTD
🤫 https://t.co/aLXErj5RCi tweet
Offshore
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Daniel
RT @MnkeDaniel: A one-page summary of Thinking, Fast and Slow with an Investing Focus:
(Bookmark for later; Like and Share if you find it helpful) https://t.co/diVrA4655T
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RT @MnkeDaniel: A one-page summary of Thinking, Fast and Slow with an Investing Focus:
(Bookmark for later; Like and Share if you find it helpful) https://t.co/diVrA4655T
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $MSCI 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.33x
•10-Year Mean: 34.93x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.64%
•10-Year Mean: 3.37%
As you can see, $MSCI appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~19% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSCI is a good business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $519.31M
•Long-Term Debt: $4.50B
$MSCI has an ok balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating, & 6.80x FFO Interest Coverate
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 23.4%
•2020: 28.6%
•2021: 26.5%
•2022: 33.0%
•2023: 35.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2019: (463.5%)
•2020: (231.5%)
•2021: (239.3%)
•2022: (148.6%)
•2023: (131.4%)
*ROE negative due to heavy use of debt
$MSCI has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $913.36M
•2023: $2,528.92M
•CAGR: 10.72%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $280.93M
•2023: $1,213.27M
•CAGR: 15.75%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.16
•2023: $13.52
•CAGR: 20.13%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 121.07M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 79.60M
By reducing its shares outstanding 34.2%, $MSCI increased its EPS by 51.9% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 82.2%
•LTM Operating Margins: 53.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 44.6%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~19% MORE in EPS & ~9% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSCI has to grow earnings at an 14.67% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (14.67%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.84 (9.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $17.07 (15.0% YoY)
2026E: $19.39 (13.6% YoY)
$MSCI has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MSCI ends 2026 with $19.39 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $620.48💵 … ~14.6% CAGR
31x P/E: $601.09💵 … ~13.2% CAGR
30x P/E: $581.70💵 … ~11.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $562.31💵 … ~10.5% CAGR
28x P/E: $542.92💵 … ~9.1% CAGR
As you can see, $MSCI appears to have double-digit return potential if we assume >29x earnings, a level of fundamental support (first green line in P/E chart) & a level below its 10-year average multiple of 34.93x
Given its wide moat, exemplary capital allocation, & linearity in its EPS & FCF, I believe 29x is fair for $MSCI & leaves us with some margin of safety
Today at $446💵 my research leads me to believe that $MSCI is a worthwhile consideration for investment
Knowing that $MSCI could trade down a bit more (closer to 25x as you’ll see in second green line in P/E chart) I would piece into the position
In other words, if I wanted to allocate 5% to $MSCI, I’d likely look to initiate a 3% - 3.5% allocation & leave room to add more & make it 5% if we see $MSCI trade between $380💵 - $400💵
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A sober valuation analysis on $MSCI 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.33x
•10-Year Mean: 34.93x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.64%
•10-Year Mean: 3.37%
As you can see, $MSCI appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~19% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSCI is a good business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $519.31M
•Long-Term Debt: $4.50B
$MSCI has an ok balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating, & 6.80x FFO Interest Coverate
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 23.4%
•2020: 28.6%
•2021: 26.5%
•2022: 33.0%
•2023: 35.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2019: (463.5%)
•2020: (231.5%)
•2021: (239.3%)
•2022: (148.6%)
•2023: (131.4%)
*ROE negative due to heavy use of debt
$MSCI has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $913.36M
•2023: $2,528.92M
•CAGR: 10.72%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $280.93M
•2023: $1,213.27M
•CAGR: 15.75%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.16
•2023: $13.52
•CAGR: 20.13%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 121.07M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 79.60M
By reducing its shares outstanding 34.2%, $MSCI increased its EPS by 51.9% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 82.2%
•LTM Operating Margins: 53.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 44.6%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~19% MORE in EPS & ~9% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSCI has to grow earnings at an 14.67% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (14.67%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.84 (9.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $17.07 (15.0% YoY)
2026E: $19.39 (13.6% YoY)
$MSCI has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MSCI ends 2026 with $19.39 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $620.48💵 … ~14.6% CAGR
31x P/E: $601.09💵 … ~13.2% CAGR
30x P/E: $581.70💵 … ~11.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $562.31💵 … ~10.5% CAGR
28x P/E: $542.92💵 … ~9.1% CAGR
As you can see, $MSCI appears to have double-digit return potential if we assume >29x earnings, a level of fundamental support (first green line in P/E chart) & a level below its 10-year average multiple of 34.93x
Given its wide moat, exemplary capital allocation, & linearity in its EPS & FCF, I believe 29x is fair for $MSCI & leaves us with some margin of safety
Today at $446💵 my research leads me to believe that $MSCI is a worthwhile consideration for investment
Knowing that $MSCI could trade down a bit more (closer to 25x as you’ll see in second green line in P/E chart) I would piece into the position
In other words, if I wanted to allocate 5% to $MSCI, I’d likely look to initiate a 3% - 3.5% allocation & leave room to add more & make it 5% if we see $MSCI trade between $380💵 - $400💵
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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