Antonio Linares
We need someone in office that these guys are actually scared of.
tweet
We need someone in office that these guys are actually scared of.
The world’s dictators have seen our weakness, evidenced by the collective stupidity in/since 2020, and now the bill is coming due. tweet
Offshore
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The Long Investor
2hrs later and the airspace is now clear between Iran and Israel
Very very slow reaction from airlines
Airliners should not have been anywhere near that region this weekend.
Traffic flowing north and south now of the region https://t.co/FvOywh0zA7
tweet
2hrs later and the airspace is now clear between Iran and Israel
Very very slow reaction from airlines
Airliners should not have been anywhere near that region this weekend.
Traffic flowing north and south now of the region https://t.co/FvOywh0zA7
Emirates and Qatar airways did not get the memo to stay out of this airspace.
Both airlines are flying right through the conflict zone https://t.co/KbuM52rTKQ tweet
Offshore
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iinvested
1Q'24 Fiduciary Management Inc. on $SCHW, $WEGRY
https://t.co/hOtos7cxjK
More fund letters here:
https://t.co/HhAAZQRRKy https://t.co/rxKoejr791
tweet
1Q'24 Fiduciary Management Inc. on $SCHW, $WEGRY
https://t.co/hOtos7cxjK
More fund letters here:
https://t.co/HhAAZQRRKy https://t.co/rxKoejr791
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $ZTS 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.12x
•9-Year Mean: 31.18x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.92%
•9-Year Mean: 3.27%
As you can see, $ZTS appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ZTS is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $2.04B
•Long-Term Debt: $6.59B
$ZTS has a good balance sheet, a BBB S&P Credit Rating & 9.85x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2018: 20.8%
•2019: 21.4%
•2020: 19.9%
•2021: 24.1%
•2022: 23.1%
•2023: 25.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2018: 71.7%
•2019: 61.3%
•2020: 50.5%
•2021: 48.9%
•2022: 47.2%
•2023: 49.8%
$ZTS has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $4.56B
•2023: $8.54B
•CAGR: 6.47%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $497.00M
•2023: $1.62B
•CAGR: 12.54%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.42
•2023: $5.32
•CAGR: 14.12%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 500.32M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 462.27M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.6%, $ZTS increased its EPS by ~8.2% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 70.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 36.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 27.4%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2018: $0.50
•2023: $1.50
•CAGR: 24.57%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ZTS has to grow earnings at a 14.06% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (14.06%) required growth rate:
2024E: $5.79 (8.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $6.46 (11.6% YoY)
2026E: $7.17 (11.0% YoY)
$ZTS has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ZTS ends 2026 with $7.17 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $229.44💵 … ~17.7% CAGR
30x P/E: $215.10💵 … ~15.0% CAGR
28x P/E: $200.76💵 … ~12.2% CAGR
27x P/E: $193.59💵 … ~10.7% CAGR
26x P/E: $186.42💵 … ~9.2% CAGR
As you can see, at the current price of $150💵, $ZTS has attractive return potential even if we assume ~26x - ~27x earnings
This is more than reasonable given its growth rate, coupled with its wide moat & exemplary capital allocation
Moreover, this is well-below $ZTS historical average of ~31x (~15% below) & near the 25x level where $ZTS has bottomed during numerous corrections & bear markets (as you’ll see the lowest green line in the P/E chart)
$ZTS appears to be a worthwhile investment today at $150💵
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $ZTS 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.12x
•9-Year Mean: 31.18x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.92%
•9-Year Mean: 3.27%
As you can see, $ZTS appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ZTS is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $2.04B
•Long-Term Debt: $6.59B
$ZTS has a good balance sheet, a BBB S&P Credit Rating & 9.85x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2018: 20.8%
•2019: 21.4%
•2020: 19.9%
•2021: 24.1%
•2022: 23.1%
•2023: 25.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2018: 71.7%
•2019: 61.3%
•2020: 50.5%
•2021: 48.9%
•2022: 47.2%
•2023: 49.8%
$ZTS has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $4.56B
•2023: $8.54B
•CAGR: 6.47%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $497.00M
•2023: $1.62B
•CAGR: 12.54%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.42
•2023: $5.32
•CAGR: 14.12%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 500.32M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 462.27M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.6%, $ZTS increased its EPS by ~8.2% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 70.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 36.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 27.4%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2018: $0.50
•2023: $1.50
•CAGR: 24.57%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ZTS has to grow earnings at a 14.06% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (14.06%) required growth rate:
2024E: $5.79 (8.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $6.46 (11.6% YoY)
2026E: $7.17 (11.0% YoY)
$ZTS has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ZTS ends 2026 with $7.17 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $229.44💵 … ~17.7% CAGR
30x P/E: $215.10💵 … ~15.0% CAGR
28x P/E: $200.76💵 … ~12.2% CAGR
27x P/E: $193.59💵 … ~10.7% CAGR
26x P/E: $186.42💵 … ~9.2% CAGR
As you can see, at the current price of $150💵, $ZTS has attractive return potential even if we assume ~26x - ~27x earnings
This is more than reasonable given its growth rate, coupled with its wide moat & exemplary capital allocation
Moreover, this is well-below $ZTS historical average of ~31x (~15% below) & near the 25x level where $ZTS has bottomed during numerous corrections & bear markets (as you’ll see the lowest green line in the P/E chart)
$ZTS appears to be a worthwhile investment today at $150💵
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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iinvested
Headwaters Capital has nice write up on $CLMB
You can read it here:
https://t.co/HhAAZQRRKy
tweet
Headwaters Capital has nice write up on $CLMB
You can read it here:
https://t.co/HhAAZQRRKy
tweet
Blogspot
1st Quarter 2024
Investing in stocks tracking fund manager letters (mutual fund or hedge fund) that provide stock ideas.
Offshore
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Giuliano
Fascinating data. First time I see this.
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Fascinating data. First time I see this.
“The difference [in ROIC] between leading and lagging companies in the same industry is typically far greater than the variation across industries.”
🤔 https://t.co/mJqbybyQoW tweet
Hidden Value Gems
A timely guide to investing during geopolitical conflicts by Joachim Klement.
“The most important rule for investors in a geopolitical crisis is not to panic. The evidence is extremely clear on one thing: the vast majority of geopolitical events do not matter for equity market performance over investment horizons of one month or longer.”
The link is in the next tweet. 👇🏼
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A timely guide to investing during geopolitical conflicts by Joachim Klement.
“The most important rule for investors in a geopolitical crisis is not to panic. The evidence is extremely clear on one thing: the vast majority of geopolitical events do not matter for equity market performance over investment horizons of one month or longer.”
The link is in the next tweet. 👇🏼
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Hidden Value Gems
Potentially good news for $CTT.LS as the new Portuguese govt announced tax cuts for the middle class and businesses.
✅Corporate tax rate would drop from 21% to 15% in 3 years.
✅Personal income tax by 0.5-3% vs 2023.
✅Reduce taxes of corporate fleet.
✅Additional benefits for the young people (under 35).
The changes need to be approved by Parliament.
tweet
Potentially good news for $CTT.LS as the new Portuguese govt announced tax cuts for the middle class and businesses.
✅Corporate tax rate would drop from 21% to 15% in 3 years.
✅Personal income tax by 0.5-3% vs 2023.
✅Reduce taxes of corporate fleet.
✅Additional benefits for the young people (under 35).
The changes need to be approved by Parliament.
tweet