Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $LULU 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 25.14x
•10-Year Mean: 35.96x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.09%
•10-Year Mean: 2.15%

As you can see, $LULU appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~43% MORE in earnings per share & ~43% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $LULU is a good business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $2.24B
•Total Debt: $1.40B

$LULU has an excellent balance sheet

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 32.5%
•2021: 23.8%
•2022: 37.4%
•2023: 40.4%
•2024: 39.0%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 38.0%
•2021: 26.1%
•2022: 36.8%
•2023: 29.0%
•2024: 42.0%

$LULU has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2014: $1.59B
•2024: $9.62B
•CAGR: 19.72%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $171.93M
•2024: $1.64B
•CAGR: 25.33%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.91
•2024: $12.77
•CAGR: 20.92%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 146.04M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 127.06M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~13%, $LULU increased its EPS by ~15% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 58.3%
•LTM Operating Margins: 22.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 16.1%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~43% MORE in EPS & ~43% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $LULU has to grow earnings at a 12.57% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over next few years to be slightly below the (12.57%) required growth rate:

2025E: $14.20 (11.2% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $15.96 (12.4% YoY)

$LULU has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $LULU ends 2026 with $15.96 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:

27x P/E: $414.96💵 … ~10.8% CAGR

26x P/E: $414.96💵 … ~8.5% CAGR

25x P/E: $399.00💵 … ~6.2% CAGR

24x P/E: $383.04💵 … ~3.9% CAGR

23x P/E: $367.08💵 … ~1.5% CAGR

As you can see, we’d have to assume >27x earnings for $LULU to have attractive return potential

While this is below its 10-year mean, we must consider $LULU elevated multiple from 2018-2022 that skews its historical average much higher

More importantly, $LULU growth rate over the next couple years doesn’t justify mean reversion of the multiple

On top of all this, it’s difficult to maintain a strong competitive advantage (over long periods of time) in the athletic apparel space

Therefore I’d be willing to assume 24x - 25x earnings (I’ll pay slightly above 2G for the return metrics & balance sheet & strong history of growth — $LULU has grown its revenues ANNUALLY since 2007 🤯)

At 24x - 25x earnings, $LULU return potential isn’t attractive

I’d be willing to consider $LULU closer to $320💵 or at ~23x earnings (~10.3% below todays $357 price)

At this level, I can reasonably expect >10% CAGR while assuming 24x

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Clark Square Capital
Just shared a new idea. Check it out at the usual place. [Link in bio] https://t.co/FAs6ga0uHw
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I genuinely suggest listening to the episode. https://t.co/3z7Grwp6Np
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Any professional money manager, or individual investor, would be wise to consider Warren Buffett’s Ground RULES ✅

“(6) I am not in the business of predicting general stock market or business fluctuations. If you think I can do this, or think it is essential to an investment program, you should NOT be in the partnership;

(7) I cannot promise results to partners. What I can and do promise is that:

(a) our investments will be chosen on the basis of VALUE, NOT popularity;

(b) that we will attempt to bring RISK of permanent capital loss (not short-term quotational loss) to an absolute MINIMUM by obtaining a WIDE MARGIN of SAFETY in each commitment and a diversity of commitments.”

Source: Berkshire’s 1963 Shareholder Letter (Ground Rules) 🗣️

#stocks #investing
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I am starting a series of articles covering everything you need to know about it. Tell me if you prefer this format or if I should go back to traditional threads

https://t.co/so5WwXKuB8
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I think it will be worth it. https://t.co/SMrXj9uR9n
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Nature has already created many of the processes to which I think society will tend.
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1⃣ Avoid group thinking. https://t.co/tmS8ChSmfZ - Hidden Value Gems
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