Offshore
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Antonio Linares
$SPOT today is like $AMZN in 2001, a misunderstood goodwill compounding machine that is set to solve more and more problems for creators and fans, just like $AMZN has done over the past few decades for merchants, developers and consumers.
In a landscape where consumer engagement dwindles post-pandemic, $SPOT emerges as a standout, defying the trend of reduced spending and time on social media platforms, showcasing record growth in Monthly Active Users (MAUs).
Despite facing stiff competition from industry giants like $AMZN and $AAPL, $SPOT appears to outpace them, as evidenced by the above graph.
Traditionally, $SPOT has grappled with substantial share labels claiming (75% of the money it makes) from its streaming revenue. However, a strategic pivot towards diversified audio offerings such as podcasts and audiobooks holds the promise of improved unit economics.
Having risen to the pinnacle of global podcasting platforms, surpassing $AAPL, hasn't come without sacrifices.
Initial heavy investments in this domain have put pressure on gross margins, but recent announcements signal a turning point. Management's disclosure of the podcast business nearing profitability heralds a future where it no longer drags down margins but adds positively to them.
The fourth quarter of 2023 witnessed a significant surge in free cash flow, mainly attributed to the favorable performance of the podcast segment.
Additionally, the successful advancement of the audiobooks vertical, requiring minimal capital, strengthens $SPOT's potential for profitability. With podcasts on the brink of breaking even and audiobooks gaining momentum, $SPOT's cash flow outlook appears set for exponential growth.
The essence of this thesis lies in $SPOT's robust moat, centered around its exclusive focus on audio content, an area where competitors like $AMZN and $AAPL struggle to compete.
By leveraging this stronghold, $SPOT aims to boost Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and subsequently User Lifetime Value (LTV) by introducing more audio verticals.
As $SPOT inches towards surpassing 1 billion MAUs by 2030, key observations arise:
1. The journey from 1 billion to 3 billion MAUs becomes increasingly plausible, echoing the company's trajectory over the past six to seven years.
2. Scaling up to this magnitude provides $SPOT with additional operating leverage, enabling it to better address consumer and creator needs.
The introduction of new audio verticals marks just the beginning of $SPOT's potential. Beyond this, the company could significantly increase ARPU by addressing shared challenges among creators and consumers, similar to $AMZN's success with merchants and shoppers.
In this trajectory, $SPOT eventually evolves into an audio search engine, akin to $GOOG but for audio. People are increasingly using it to look things up and learn while on the go and not looking at a screen.
$SPOT's recommendation engine will cover all the new audio verticals, making the search experience delightful.
With a deep understanding of both $SPOT and $AMZN, I believe $SPOT possesses the same organizational prowess $AMZN has, which is likely to equate to sustained growth over time. Comparable to $AMZN's customer-centric approach and rapid iteration, $SPOT's trajectory poses increasing challenges for competitors to replicate.
Trading at a modest Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 3.5, $SPOT presents an enticing investment opportunity. The introduction of new audio verticals could trigger significant multiple expansion. Looking forward, as $SPOT adopts an $AMZN-like strategy, the potential for further upside is considerable.
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$SPOT today is like $AMZN in 2001, a misunderstood goodwill compounding machine that is set to solve more and more problems for creators and fans, just like $AMZN has done over the past few decades for merchants, developers and consumers.
In a landscape where consumer engagement dwindles post-pandemic, $SPOT emerges as a standout, defying the trend of reduced spending and time on social media platforms, showcasing record growth in Monthly Active Users (MAUs).
Despite facing stiff competition from industry giants like $AMZN and $AAPL, $SPOT appears to outpace them, as evidenced by the above graph.
Traditionally, $SPOT has grappled with substantial share labels claiming (75% of the money it makes) from its streaming revenue. However, a strategic pivot towards diversified audio offerings such as podcasts and audiobooks holds the promise of improved unit economics.
Having risen to the pinnacle of global podcasting platforms, surpassing $AAPL, hasn't come without sacrifices.
Initial heavy investments in this domain have put pressure on gross margins, but recent announcements signal a turning point. Management's disclosure of the podcast business nearing profitability heralds a future where it no longer drags down margins but adds positively to them.
The fourth quarter of 2023 witnessed a significant surge in free cash flow, mainly attributed to the favorable performance of the podcast segment.
Additionally, the successful advancement of the audiobooks vertical, requiring minimal capital, strengthens $SPOT's potential for profitability. With podcasts on the brink of breaking even and audiobooks gaining momentum, $SPOT's cash flow outlook appears set for exponential growth.
The essence of this thesis lies in $SPOT's robust moat, centered around its exclusive focus on audio content, an area where competitors like $AMZN and $AAPL struggle to compete.
By leveraging this stronghold, $SPOT aims to boost Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and subsequently User Lifetime Value (LTV) by introducing more audio verticals.
As $SPOT inches towards surpassing 1 billion MAUs by 2030, key observations arise:
1. The journey from 1 billion to 3 billion MAUs becomes increasingly plausible, echoing the company's trajectory over the past six to seven years.
2. Scaling up to this magnitude provides $SPOT with additional operating leverage, enabling it to better address consumer and creator needs.
The introduction of new audio verticals marks just the beginning of $SPOT's potential. Beyond this, the company could significantly increase ARPU by addressing shared challenges among creators and consumers, similar to $AMZN's success with merchants and shoppers.
In this trajectory, $SPOT eventually evolves into an audio search engine, akin to $GOOG but for audio. People are increasingly using it to look things up and learn while on the go and not looking at a screen.
$SPOT's recommendation engine will cover all the new audio verticals, making the search experience delightful.
With a deep understanding of both $SPOT and $AMZN, I believe $SPOT possesses the same organizational prowess $AMZN has, which is likely to equate to sustained growth over time. Comparable to $AMZN's customer-centric approach and rapid iteration, $SPOT's trajectory poses increasing challenges for competitors to replicate.
Trading at a modest Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 3.5, $SPOT presents an enticing investment opportunity. The introduction of new audio verticals could trigger significant multiple expansion. Looking forward, as $SPOT adopts an $AMZN-like strategy, the potential for further upside is considerable.
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Offshore
Photo
Antonio Linares
Charlie Munger once famously said that if you can't stomach 50%+ declines 3 times a century, you shouldn't be in the market.
For investors of great growth companies like $TSLA, $AMD, $NVDA, $PLTR, $SPOT, $AMZN and others, you are likely to experience 50%+ declines dozens of times per century.
Are you mentally prepared?
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Charlie Munger once famously said that if you can't stomach 50%+ declines 3 times a century, you shouldn't be in the market.
For investors of great growth companies like $TSLA, $AMD, $NVDA, $PLTR, $SPOT, $AMZN and others, you are likely to experience 50%+ declines dozens of times per century.
Are you mentally prepared?
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Antonio Linares
How $PLTR disrupts $MSFT going forward:
1. $PLTR simplifies the adoption of Foundry, making it accessible to medium and small businesses at a cost-effective rate.
2. Conversely, while $MSFT offers a robust enterprise-grade operating system, its focus is scattered, resulting in a lag behind $PLTR. Thus, $PLTR emerges as the preferred choice for enterprise operating systems.
3. An enterprise operating system refers to software that centralizes organizational data, facilitating seamless operations and enabling AI-driven insights while breaking down data silos.
4. As we transition into the era of Generative AI, generative techniques surpass retrieval methods, becoming the standard approach.
5. Generative techniques acquire a significance comparable to that of electricity.
6. Therefore, the presence of a unified data layer (ontology) becomes essential for Generative AI to effectively harness its capabilities. Without it, competitiveness is compromised.
7. Although traditional business applications like $MSFT's Word and Excel retain relevance, their integration with an ontology enhances their utility, empowering employees akin to granting them superpowers.
8. Moving forward, the effectiveness of business applications diminishes without integration with an ontology, particularly in a competitive environment, thus placing $PLTR at the forefront of enterprise operations.
9. This places $PLTR in a position to potentially charge fees to $MSFT for directing customers towards it or alternatively, allows $PLTR to develop its own suite of business applications, possibly leveraging an open-source community.
10. Consequently, $PLTR establishes itself as a dominant force at the pinnacle of the enterprise funnel, granting it leverage over $MSFT.
11. With an unparalleled understanding of businesses across diverse industries, $PLTR is poised to build its ecosystem of supplementary solutions, mirroring $MSFT's evolutionary trajectory over past decades.
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How $PLTR disrupts $MSFT going forward:
1. $PLTR simplifies the adoption of Foundry, making it accessible to medium and small businesses at a cost-effective rate.
2. Conversely, while $MSFT offers a robust enterprise-grade operating system, its focus is scattered, resulting in a lag behind $PLTR. Thus, $PLTR emerges as the preferred choice for enterprise operating systems.
3. An enterprise operating system refers to software that centralizes organizational data, facilitating seamless operations and enabling AI-driven insights while breaking down data silos.
4. As we transition into the era of Generative AI, generative techniques surpass retrieval methods, becoming the standard approach.
5. Generative techniques acquire a significance comparable to that of electricity.
6. Therefore, the presence of a unified data layer (ontology) becomes essential for Generative AI to effectively harness its capabilities. Without it, competitiveness is compromised.
7. Although traditional business applications like $MSFT's Word and Excel retain relevance, their integration with an ontology enhances their utility, empowering employees akin to granting them superpowers.
8. Moving forward, the effectiveness of business applications diminishes without integration with an ontology, particularly in a competitive environment, thus placing $PLTR at the forefront of enterprise operations.
9. This places $PLTR in a position to potentially charge fees to $MSFT for directing customers towards it or alternatively, allows $PLTR to develop its own suite of business applications, possibly leveraging an open-source community.
10. Consequently, $PLTR establishes itself as a dominant force at the pinnacle of the enterprise funnel, granting it leverage over $MSFT.
11. With an unparalleled understanding of businesses across diverse industries, $PLTR is poised to build its ecosystem of supplementary solutions, mirroring $MSFT's evolutionary trajectory over past decades.
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Offshore
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Q-Cap
Amazing to see a 100 bagger stock which is still valued at less than $25B.
Capital allocation gold standard
$DECK https://t.co/FrGchc9kT4
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Amazing to see a 100 bagger stock which is still valued at less than $25B.
Capital allocation gold standard
$DECK https://t.co/FrGchc9kT4
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Offshore
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The Long Investor
$PLTR one week later.
But did we buy? https://t.co/Jh6ZC1TAgw
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$PLTR one week later.
But did we buy? https://t.co/Jh6ZC1TAgw
$PLTR -2% today after touching the red line.
The fight is not over yet but a rejection so far for the bulls. https://t.co/8hAtrQ6iEJ tweet
Offshore
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The Long Investor
$DAL Buffett sold his airline stocks back in May 2020 (due to Covid) and the price is now above what he sold at....but his reason made sense at the time.
Its an industry he likes
With this set up and projection, I would be surprised if he does not get back in again. https://t.co/6canlgpbxL
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$DAL Buffett sold his airline stocks back in May 2020 (due to Covid) and the price is now above what he sold at....but his reason made sense at the time.
Its an industry he likes
With this set up and projection, I would be surprised if he does not get back in again. https://t.co/6canlgpbxL
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