AkhenOsiris
$GOOGL Uninvestable
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Hidden Value Gems
Seems like everyone associated with $BRK not only gets rich but also live longer…incredible 😀
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Hidden Value Gems
a very interesting post - saved to finish later.

h/t @ValueStockGeek open.substack.com/pub/values…
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Hidden Value Gems
You can read my full thesis and subscribe here

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Please repost if you enjoyed it! This helps more than you think🙏🏽 hiddenvaluegems.com/newslett…

6/6
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Hidden Value Gems
3⃣ Insiders have been actively buying stock at prices close to spot.

5/6
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Hidden Value Gems
2⃣New projects have materially lower lifting costs ($5/boe), which would reduce the average breakeven price.

4/6
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Hidden Value Gems
1⃣The company is about to launch its key projects that would add 65% to 2023 production, plus the Neptune acquisition (35%). With production set to double and growth capex peaking this year, VAR’s FCF profile will look radically different in 2026.

3/6
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Hidden Value Gems
1/ Leverage ($4.5bn of net debt vs $852mn FCF in ’23)

2/ Poor operational track record, delays and capex overruns (e.g. Balder X)

3/ Risk of new investment cycle post 2026 while production starts falling

4/ Macro

So why did I buy it?

2/6
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Hidden Value Gems
Here is my latest thesis on $VAR.NO

15% dividend yield and 100% production growth in two years. What’s the catch?

1/6
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The Long Investor
RT @TheLongInvest: S&P 500 breakdown

30 companies are not profitable
15 companies have a PE over 100
45 companies have a PE over 50
320 companies have a PE over 20

The average PE is 29.4 today

The last time the average PE was 29.4 was on the 6th of August ‘23, what followed next was 3 months of harsh declines. $SPY
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The Long Investor
$AAPL $MSFT $GOOG led the market for the last 12 months and through the regional banking collapse last March too.

Now the current hype stocks are distracting the market from the leaders

Stay focused on the leaders….they control the market.
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