Special Situations 🌐 Newsletter (Jay Singh III)
Preliminary existing home sales could be much lower in June. Official data coming out July 20th! $XHB $DHI $NVR $LEN $PHM $BZH $TOL $HOV $LGIH $KBH https://t.co/IxXI17jhfe
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Special Situations 🌐 Newsletter (Jay Singh III)
Components of CPI in clear graphic (Pew Research Center) https://t.co/wHA3G1cjwp
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Kevin G.
RT @fkpxls: everyday practice of effectual reasoning https://t.co/npA0vN8n3o
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Special Situations 🌐 Newsletter (Jay Singh III)
Latest SSR $TWTR lawsuit threads:
Precedents (pre-suit): https://t.co/0wK3V4ujb8
Part 1 (Summary Wachtell): https://t.co/5DLZVTpUPr
Part 2 (Timeline): https://t.co/5fJV9Ra7M3
Part 3 (no breach info rights/MAE/financing): https://t.co/11OKyopoRh

More at https://t.co/wMlhXZUFtd
$TWTR gave Musk access to all the data he needed on SPAM accounts, and Musk still cancelled. Details from Delaware complaint part 3

51/ After Musk hit a cap of 100k queries on firehose access that $TWTR gave his team, Twitter increased this access to 10 million queries per month https://t.co/FK588hPhdO - Special Situations 🌐 Newsletter (Jay Singh III)
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Special Situations 🌐 Newsletter (Jay Singh III)
How does NBER determine we are in a recession?

Monitor real personal income - transfers, nonfarm payroll employment, employment as measured by household survey, real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes, and industrial production.
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Special Situations 🌐 Newsletter (Jay Singh III)
Target rate probabilities for July Fed meeting: now 75% chance of 1% hike on July 27th! This probability is up from only 7.6% prior to today's CPI data. Canada raised by 1% at this wk's meeting.

CPI YOY of 9.1% beat expectations of 8.8% & core CPI of 5.9% beat exp of 5.7%. https://t.co/lW397WAauF
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Special Situations 🌐 Newsletter (Jay Singh III)
Chinese buyers in 35 mega projects in 22 cities refuse to pay mortgages on delayed construction projects (1.4% of all mortgages) --> very concerning!

Home loan pmt halts may cause 561B yuan / $83B of bad debt; China Construction Bank, Postal Bank, ICBC exposed

Thx @ColossusBIO https://t.co/7woHix1p93
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Special Situations 🌐 Newsletter (Jay Singh III)
Italian yields spiking, could lead to spread blowout! Giuseppe Conte told lawmakers that Five Star Movement, 2nd biggest group in Draghi coalition, would boycott confidence vote, which govt called over an aid package. Draghi signaled he would resign if Conte walked out on ballot! https://t.co/fd6ANg6ZUD
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Special Situations 🌐 Newsletter (Jay Singh III)
Calling a bottom in certain sectors with no view on earnings at all is a dangerous game to play...
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Special Situations 🌐 Newsletter (Jay Singh III)
*ERICSSON SHARES EXTEND DECLINE TO 11% TO LOWEST SINCE MARCH 2020, ON WEAK EARNINGS / MARGINS

DNB expects estimates for 2023 EPS to fall 8%-10%

Cevian owns 4.9% of co & says valuation embarrassingly low. But does valuation matter in ST on such a sharp EPS miss & uncertainty? https://t.co/t82FSDV19e
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Special Situations 🌐 Newsletter (Jay Singh III)
Fastenal $FAST not only declined 7% after the industrial distributor called out slowing demand in May/June, it pulled down peers $GWW and $MSM as well...

Wait for earnings before calling bottoms! The declines have barely begun!
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