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memenodes
when you worry about the markets and she asks if you’d still love her if she was a penguin https://t.co/mRMtXjQ6qf
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when you worry about the markets and she asks if you’d still love her if she was a penguin https://t.co/mRMtXjQ6qf
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Offshore
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The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: Investing is unforgiving. One small mistake can be very costly, and there’s no way back.
$NBIS might be that mistake for me this year.
This isn’t hindsight bias. I said the very next day that selling was a mistake as the stock didn't break my conditions to hold. Sentiment took over and I took a decision I shouldn’t have.
That’s all it takes.
The last week and a half cost me a few salaries in unrealized P&L. One emotinal afternoon cost me months of work.
I’m not here to complain. I’m here to be transparent, to illustrate how critical systems - and respecting them, really are.
Your system exists to protect you from yourself.
Ideas, opinions, convictions can make money. But they can't regularly outperform. Over time, convictions turn into bias, and bias costs.
Systems only can compound over decades. And the single most important rule is simple: don’t break it.
I broke mine. Now I have to work on fixing that.
Mistakes are opportunities to improve.
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RT @WealthyReadings: Investing is unforgiving. One small mistake can be very costly, and there’s no way back.
$NBIS might be that mistake for me this year.
This isn’t hindsight bias. I said the very next day that selling was a mistake as the stock didn't break my conditions to hold. Sentiment took over and I took a decision I shouldn’t have.
That’s all it takes.
The last week and a half cost me a few salaries in unrealized P&L. One emotinal afternoon cost me months of work.
I’m not here to complain. I’m here to be transparent, to illustrate how critical systems - and respecting them, really are.
Your system exists to protect you from yourself.
Ideas, opinions, convictions can make money. But they can't regularly outperform. Over time, convictions turn into bias, and bias costs.
Systems only can compound over decades. And the single most important rule is simple: don’t break it.
I broke mine. Now I have to work on fixing that.
Mistakes are opportunities to improve.
Few $NBIS notes after this quarter.
I'll be the bear, once more.
I continue to believe the market will punish the stock - or not reward it as much as many expect.
Not because the company isn’t excellent, but because it did not reward $GOOG, so why would it reward $NBIS for the same behavior?
Fundamentally, everyone will be bullish. Demand is through the roof, compute was sold out, management is planning to build more sites, etc...
Everything FinX wants to see.
From a market perspective, Q4 CapEx slowed down, guidance talks about ~20% increase of contracted power for FY26 without news on connected power, except for the upgrade from 7 sites to 16 sites.
This means FY26 CapEx will accelerate - just like for everyone else, and won't slow down FY27 as contracted power continues to climb.
More spending. Which was punished across all hyperscalers.
Also note that ARR guidance wasn’t increased, meaning no beat expected hence nothing above expectations and no buildouts closing faster than expected.
Some will say "why would you want more? It doesn't matter, they are executing at their pace"
I disagree. Acceleration is everything, otherwise you'll miss on expectations just like they did.
That revenue miss is due to real-world constraints, as I’ve shared yesterday and for months: you cannot build faster than physics and logistics allow you to.
The issue is that growth factually slows/doesn't accelerate. Growth stocks work on acceleration not stable growth.
The why doesn’t matter, even if you’re supply constrained.
Growth slows, CapEx increases, cash generation decreases, and there are no certainties that demand won’t be fulfilled by other hyperscalers by the time infrastructure is built.
Like many of you, I believe there will be demand and everything will be fine. But today, you cannot know. You can bet on it, but you cannot know.
That is the issue. And that is why the market might react like it did for $GOOG.
I continue to believe the company is excellent and its future is bright. And that the stock won’t be rewarded as much as many expect in the short term.
I’d love to be wrong. tweet
The Transcript
RT @TheTranscript_: $RBLX CEO: "Every day, we capture roughly 30,000 years of human interaction data on Roblox in a PII and privacy compliant way. We're actively using this data to develop and train AI models that continue to bring our vision to life. I want to highlight that we're internally now running over 400 AI models. "
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RT @TheTranscript_: $RBLX CEO: "Every day, we capture roughly 30,000 years of human interaction data on Roblox in a PII and privacy compliant way. We're actively using this data to develop and train AI models that continue to bring our vision to life. I want to highlight that we're internally now running over 400 AI models. "
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Offshore
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Who got you into crypto?
Thanks to them you’re going to die 10 years younger from stress and bad habits https://t.co/jkBnOI0EP1
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Who got you into crypto?
Thanks to them you’re going to die 10 years younger from stress and bad habits https://t.co/jkBnOI0EP1
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Offshore
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I can see why they used up all the condoms in the olympic village https://t.co/lRcnJaByRz
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I can see why they used up all the condoms in the olympic village https://t.co/lRcnJaByRz
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