Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
In hindsight, $NBIS quarter’s highlight comes from its CapEx. Not just CapEx, but how it is financed.
We’re talking about a ~$23B company planning ~$18B CapEx while publicly stating they expect to finance 60% organically via FCF, cash & commitments.
They also have clients financially committing before delivery to enable buildouts; a strong proof of trust especially when those are $META and $MSFT.
Last but not least, the remaining 40% could be financed through equity-backed debt, one of the cheapest funding sources - dilution being even cheaper but paid in later.
I'd remain cautious on the sector and wouldn’t expect $NBIS to outperform if the leaders don’t but the company has a very impressive financing roadmap, healthier than many hyperscalers at this stage.
This has always been a core part of the bull case.
But remaining that healthy through end of 2026 is pretty impressive. The market probably loves this, although I still believe there are other valid concerns short term.
Still, getting out ahead CapEx wise is impressive.
tweet
In hindsight, $NBIS quarter’s highlight comes from its CapEx. Not just CapEx, but how it is financed.
We’re talking about a ~$23B company planning ~$18B CapEx while publicly stating they expect to finance 60% organically via FCF, cash & commitments.
They also have clients financially committing before delivery to enable buildouts; a strong proof of trust especially when those are $META and $MSFT.
Last but not least, the remaining 40% could be financed through equity-backed debt, one of the cheapest funding sources - dilution being even cheaper but paid in later.
I'd remain cautious on the sector and wouldn’t expect $NBIS to outperform if the leaders don’t but the company has a very impressive financing roadmap, healthier than many hyperscalers at this stage.
This has always been a core part of the bull case.
But remaining that healthy through end of 2026 is pretty impressive. The market probably loves this, although I still believe there are other valid concerns short term.
Still, getting out ahead CapEx wise is impressive.
Few $NBIS notes after this quarter.
I'll be the bear, once more.
I continue to believe the market will punish the stock - or not reward it as much as many expect.
Not because the company isn’t excellent, but because it did not reward $GOOG, so why would it reward $NBIS for the same behavior?
Fundamentally, everyone will be bullish. Demand is through the roof, compute was sold out, management is planning to build more sites, etc...
Everything FinX wants to see.
From a market perspective, Q4 CapEx slowed down, guidance talks about ~20% increase of contracted power for FY26 without news on connected power, except for the upgrade from 7 sites to 16 sites.
This means FY26 CapEx will accelerate - just like for everyone else, and won't slow down FY27 as contracted power continues to climb.
More spending. Which was punished across all hyperscalers.
Also note that ARR guidance wasn’t increased, meaning no beat expected hence nothing above expectations and no buildouts closing faster than expected.
Some will say "why would you want more? It doesn't matter, they are executing at their pace"
I disagree. Acceleration is everything, otherwise you'll miss on expectations just like they did.
That revenue miss is due to real-world constraints, as I’ve shared yesterday and for months: you cannot build faster than physics and logistics allow you to.
The issue is that growth factually slows/doesn't accelerate. Growth stocks work on acceleration not stable growth.
The why doesn’t matter, even if you’re supply constrained.
Growth slows, CapEx increases, cash generation decreases, and there are no certainties that demand won’t be fulfilled by other hyperscalers by the time infrastructure is built.
Like many of you, I believe there will be demand and everything will be fine. But today, you cannot know. You can bet on it, but you cannot know.
That is the issue. And that is why the market might react like it did for $GOOG.
I continue to believe the company is excellent and its future is bright. And that the stock won’t be rewarded as much as many expect in the short term.
I’d love to be wrong. tweet
Benjamin Hernandez😎
The market is giving us setups!
$NX $RIG $CSCO $BROS $INTU $CNCK $UL $DBGI $AAPG $XXII $CMPS $CRM
$NX is quietly up 35% in a month. Building products are working. $RIG merger creates a deepwater powerhouse. $CSCO is the safe haven in tech.
Hit the link for analysis!
tweet
The market is giving us setups!
$NX $RIG $CSCO $BROS $INTU $CNCK $UL $DBGI $AAPG $XXII $CMPS $CRM
$NX is quietly up 35% in a month. Building products are working. $RIG merger creates a deepwater powerhouse. $CSCO is the safe haven in tech.
Hit the link for analysis!
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Byron Donalds just filed new trades.
One of them was a purchase of Bitcoin, $BTC.
Donalds sits on the House Subcommittee on Digital Assets.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/VH45vqkoC1
tweet
BREAKING: Representative Byron Donalds just filed new trades.
One of them was a purchase of Bitcoin, $BTC.
Donalds sits on the House Subcommittee on Digital Assets.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/VH45vqkoC1
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
$MRNA is what every investor should be looking for
And textbook price action.
Years of downtrends with crushing volume until some consolidation on growing volume. Breakout on reccord volume followed by perfect retest, pre-earnings.
Earnings please, retest is to the cent, reaction +9% and we're probably going for another ride.
I don't follow the fundamental, but this is where we study, folks. Not just because we like the story of a growth stock, but because the market does.
That's where money is
tweet
$MRNA is what every investor should be looking for
And textbook price action.
Years of downtrends with crushing volume until some consolidation on growing volume. Breakout on reccord volume followed by perfect retest, pre-earnings.
Earnings please, retest is to the cent, reaction +9% and we're probably going for another ride.
I don't follow the fundamental, but this is where we study, folks. Not just because we like the story of a growth stock, but because the market does.
That's where money is
$MRNA is ready to blow up. And no one is talking about it.
The only one I saw mentionning the name was @nataninvesting since months, bit early to my taste but by now... It's close to perfection.
Liquidity continues to rotate. It really seems to be time to start looking away from tech... Big time. tweet
AkhenOsiris
A capital expenditure (capex) cut by an AI hyperscaler is the “most obvious catalyst to reverse significantly” the market’s rotation from “AI-awe to AI-poor,” Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett said in a note.
The strategists pointed to “wildfire AI disruption” rippling across sectors including insurance brokers, wealth advisors, real estate services and logistics. They note that India tech was the first AI-disrupted sector in the first quarter, with “no bid yet."
In the bigger picture, BofA notes major rotations are underway. The correlation between Japan’s yen and the TOPIX has flipped positive for the first time since 2005, a dynamic the strategists say historically aligns with secular bull markets.
At the same time, they reiterate a structural rotation from U.S. large-cap growth to small-cap value, and from U.S. equities toward emerging markets (EM).
tweet
A capital expenditure (capex) cut by an AI hyperscaler is the “most obvious catalyst to reverse significantly” the market’s rotation from “AI-awe to AI-poor,” Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett said in a note.
The strategists pointed to “wildfire AI disruption” rippling across sectors including insurance brokers, wealth advisors, real estate services and logistics. They note that India tech was the first AI-disrupted sector in the first quarter, with “no bid yet."
In the bigger picture, BofA notes major rotations are underway. The correlation between Japan’s yen and the TOPIX has flipped positive for the first time since 2005, a dynamic the strategists say historically aligns with secular bull markets.
At the same time, they reiterate a structural rotation from U.S. large-cap growth to small-cap value, and from U.S. equities toward emerging markets (EM).
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Transcript
RT @TheTranscript_: $AMAT CEO: "..we expect to grow our semiconductor equipment business more than 20% this calendar year. We see the demand profile weighted towards the second half of the calendar year, with availability of customer clean room space being a key factor pacing the rate of investment" https://t.co/PkRWv9A9Nw
tweet
RT @TheTranscript_: $AMAT CEO: "..we expect to grow our semiconductor equipment business more than 20% this calendar year. We see the demand profile weighted towards the second half of the calendar year, with availability of customer clean room space being a key factor pacing the rate of investment" https://t.co/PkRWv9A9Nw
Applied Materials CEO: "Our strong performance and outlook for 2026 and beyond are fueled by the acceleration of investments in AI computing."
$AMAT: +14% AH https://t.co/nxZ6xCPQid tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Transcript
RT @TheTranscript_: Applied Materials CEO: "Our strong performance and outlook for 2026 and beyond are fueled by the acceleration of investments in AI computing."
$AMAT: +14% AH https://t.co/nxZ6xCPQid
tweet
RT @TheTranscript_: Applied Materials CEO: "Our strong performance and outlook for 2026 and beyond are fueled by the acceleration of investments in AI computing."
$AMAT: +14% AH https://t.co/nxZ6xCPQid
tweet
Offshore
Video
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Another timeless investing lesson from Chris Hohn:
“The 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐨𝐮𝐭, if you’ve got a great company, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬. Take a company we own — Moody’s… What do you think the average revenue growth over 100 years has been?
10%.
That’s a very unusual number over a very long time period. And so 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞, 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐲𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐟… The intrinsic value compounding matters more than the stock price. If you have a great company, it will grow intrinsic value.
Here’s the thing about multiples.
𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐚 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝. 𝐁𝐮𝐭 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐫 𝐮𝐧𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐧 𝐚 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐳𝐨𝐧 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐞𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐧’𝐭 𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲’𝐫𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐠.
Which goes back to Warren Buffett’s definition of risk:
Not knowing what you’re doing.
𝐈𝐟 𝐚 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐜 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐚𝐭 𝐚 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞, 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐢𝐭 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐳𝐨𝐧.
𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐟 𝐲𝐨𝐮’𝐫𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐢𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐱𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐜 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐢𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞.”
___
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: 𝘛𝘪𝘮𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘵’𝘴 𝘩𝘪𝘥𝘥𝘦𝘯. 𝘉𝘶𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘵’𝘴 𝘱𝘴𝘺𝘤𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘰𝘨𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘥𝘪𝘧𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘦𝘹𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘥. 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘪𝘯 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴, 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴. 𝘉𝘶𝘵 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘥 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘥𝘦𝘴. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘤𝘩 𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘧𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨: 𝘚𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨-𝘥𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘵𝘴.
___
𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝𝐬:
Multiples dominate outcomes
Sentiment dominates perception
Volatility dominates emotion
𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝𝐬:
Earnings dominate returns
Cash flows dominate valuation
Intrinsic value dominates everything
___
Multiples matter, but it’s secondary.
Growth + durability + time matter more.
And perhaps the most overlooked psychological truth:
𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭𝘴 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳 𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭𝘴 𝘴𝘢𝘧𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴.
Because volatility ≠ risk.
Uncertainty ≠ risk.
Not understanding what you own = risk.
𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙙𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙩 𝙤𝙛 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙥𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙨𝙣’𝙩 𝙛𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙜𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩 𝙗𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙨. 𝙄𝙩’𝙨 𝙙𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙡𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙩𝙚𝙢𝙥𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙞𝙯𝙤𝙣 𝙧𝙚𝙦𝙪𝙞𝙧𝙚𝙙 𝙩𝙤 𝙡𝙚𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙢 𝙬𝙤𝙧𝙠.
___
$MCO $SPGI
Video: In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management (02/13/2026)
tweet
Another timeless investing lesson from Chris Hohn:
“The 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐨𝐮𝐭, if you’ve got a great company, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬. Take a company we own — Moody’s… What do you think the average revenue growth over 100 years has been?
10%.
That’s a very unusual number over a very long time period. And so 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞, 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐲𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐟… The intrinsic value compounding matters more than the stock price. If you have a great company, it will grow intrinsic value.
Here’s the thing about multiples.
𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐚 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝. 𝐁𝐮𝐭 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐫 𝐮𝐧𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐧 𝐚 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐳𝐨𝐧 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐞𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐧’𝐭 𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲’𝐫𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐠.
Which goes back to Warren Buffett’s definition of risk:
Not knowing what you’re doing.
𝐈𝐟 𝐚 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐜 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐚𝐭 𝐚 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞, 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐢𝐭 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐳𝐨𝐧.
𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐟 𝐲𝐨𝐮’𝐫𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐢𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐱𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐜 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐢𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞.”
___
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: 𝘛𝘪𝘮𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘵’𝘴 𝘩𝘪𝘥𝘥𝘦𝘯. 𝘉𝘶𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘵’𝘴 𝘱𝘴𝘺𝘤𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘰𝘨𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘥𝘪𝘧𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘦𝘹𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘥. 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘪𝘯 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴, 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴. 𝘉𝘶𝘵 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘥 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘥𝘦𝘴. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘤𝘩 𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘧𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨: 𝘚𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨-𝘥𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘵𝘴.
___
𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝𝐬:
Multiples dominate outcomes
Sentiment dominates perception
Volatility dominates emotion
𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐝𝐬:
Earnings dominate returns
Cash flows dominate valuation
Intrinsic value dominates everything
___
Multiples matter, but it’s secondary.
Growth + durability + time matter more.
And perhaps the most overlooked psychological truth:
𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭𝘴 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳 𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭𝘴 𝘴𝘢𝘧𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴.
Because volatility ≠ risk.
Uncertainty ≠ risk.
Not understanding what you own = risk.
𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙙𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙩 𝙤𝙛 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙥𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙨𝙣’𝙩 𝙛𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙜𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩 𝙗𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙨. 𝙄𝙩’𝙨 𝙙𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙡𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙩𝙚𝙢𝙥𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙞𝙯𝙤𝙣 𝙧𝙚𝙦𝙪𝙞𝙧𝙚𝙙 𝙩𝙤 𝙡𝙚𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙢 𝙬𝙤𝙧𝙠.
___
$MCO $SPGI
Video: In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management (02/13/2026)
tweet