Offshore
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
Flows into EM Asia ETFs finally picking up. Via Dr Doom https://t.co/5Oc2afLL4p
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Flows into EM Asia ETFs finally picking up. Via Dr Doom https://t.co/5Oc2afLL4p
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Offshore
Video
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Dan Sundheim, Founder & CIO of D1 Capital Partners, on what stock he’d buy if there was a 10-year lockup:
“There’s very few tech companies I feel comfortable saying because I think tech just changes too quickly so it wouldn’t be a tech company. It would have to be a company with a moat that’s incredibly difficult to penetrate, with a growth rate well above GDP for a long time.
I like 𝐒𝐢𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝐄𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 quite a bit… a company called 𝐂𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐫𝐬 which I like a lot… they own the majority of the incinerators in the United States. You can’t really build more incinerators because of NIMBY.”
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𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧:
Investing ultimately comes back to analyzing a company’s moat. Not just whether a business has competitive advantages — but: how easily can those advantages be replicated?
How many layers of barriers to entry protect the business?
How durable are those advantages over long periods of time?
𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘻𝘰𝘯, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘤𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘲𝘶𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦.
𝘈𝘴 𝘵𝘦𝘤𝘩𝘯𝘰𝘭𝘰𝘨𝘺 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘴, 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘳𝘶𝘱𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘴. 𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘬𝘴 𝘥𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘥𝘢𝘺 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘢𝘪𝘯 𝘴𝘰 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 — 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘺, 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘺 𝘣𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘳𝘴, 𝘪𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘥 𝘣𝘢𝘴𝘦, 𝘴𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘤𝘰𝘴𝘵𝘴, 𝘯𝘦𝘵𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬 𝘦𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘴, 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘵𝘴, 𝘦𝘵𝘤.
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𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩’𝙨 𝙗𝙚𝙖𝙪𝙩𝙞𝙛𝙪𝙡 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙎𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙝𝙚𝙞𝙢’𝙨 𝙛𝙧𝙖𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙚𝙢𝙥𝙝𝙖𝙨𝙞𝙨 𝙤𝙣 𝙙𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙗𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮 𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧 𝙚𝙭𝙘𝙞𝙩𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩.
Particularly what he mentioned about 𝐂𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐫𝐬:
“You 𝘤𝘢𝘯’𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝙉𝙄𝙈𝘽𝙔 and as you have 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦’𝘴 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘻𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘸𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘦 and they have both the incinerators and 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝙣𝙚𝙩𝙬𝙤𝙧𝙠 𝘵𝘰 𝘨𝘰 𝘤𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵. And so it’s just a very very good business and the starting multiple is very reasonable.”
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐝𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐛𝐥𝐲 𝐩𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐮𝐥:
𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐁𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬 → Hazardous waste facilities face extreme permitting hurdles
𝐍𝐈𝐌𝐁𝐘 𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭 t → Even if permitted, communities resist new incinerators
𝐒𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐬 → Very few licensed hazardous waste incinerators exist
𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞 → These are not easily replicated digital products
𝐍𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 → Collection, transportation, disposal ecosystem
𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 → Owning both disposal + logistics compounds the moat
This is what a real moat looks like.
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Interestingly:
$SIE.DE: +13% YTD
$CLH: +13% YTD
𝐀 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 — 𝐢𝐭’𝐬 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭.
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Video: Stripe | Dan Sundheim of D1 Capital | (10/22/2025)
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Dan Sundheim, Founder & CIO of D1 Capital Partners, on what stock he’d buy if there was a 10-year lockup:
“There’s very few tech companies I feel comfortable saying because I think tech just changes too quickly so it wouldn’t be a tech company. It would have to be a company with a moat that’s incredibly difficult to penetrate, with a growth rate well above GDP for a long time.
I like 𝐒𝐢𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝐄𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 quite a bit… a company called 𝐂𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐫𝐬 which I like a lot… they own the majority of the incinerators in the United States. You can’t really build more incinerators because of NIMBY.”
___
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧:
Investing ultimately comes back to analyzing a company’s moat. Not just whether a business has competitive advantages — but: how easily can those advantages be replicated?
How many layers of barriers to entry protect the business?
How durable are those advantages over long periods of time?
𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘻𝘰𝘯, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘤𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘲𝘶𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦.
𝘈𝘴 𝘵𝘦𝘤𝘩𝘯𝘰𝘭𝘰𝘨𝘺 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘴, 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘳𝘶𝘱𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘴. 𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘬𝘴 𝘥𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘥𝘢𝘺 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘢𝘪𝘯 𝘴𝘰 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 — 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘺, 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘺 𝘣𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘳𝘴, 𝘪𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘥 𝘣𝘢𝘴𝘦, 𝘴𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘤𝘰𝘴𝘵𝘴, 𝘯𝘦𝘵𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬 𝘦𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘴, 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘵𝘴, 𝘦𝘵𝘤.
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𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩’𝙨 𝙗𝙚𝙖𝙪𝙩𝙞𝙛𝙪𝙡 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙎𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙝𝙚𝙞𝙢’𝙨 𝙛𝙧𝙖𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙚𝙢𝙥𝙝𝙖𝙨𝙞𝙨 𝙤𝙣 𝙙𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙗𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮 𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧 𝙚𝙭𝙘𝙞𝙩𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩.
Particularly what he mentioned about 𝐂𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐫𝐬:
“You 𝘤𝘢𝘯’𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝙉𝙄𝙈𝘽𝙔 and as you have 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦’𝘴 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘻𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘸𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘦 and they have both the incinerators and 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝙣𝙚𝙩𝙬𝙤𝙧𝙠 𝘵𝘰 𝘨𝘰 𝘤𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵. And so it’s just a very very good business and the starting multiple is very reasonable.”
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐝𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐛𝐥𝐲 𝐩𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐮𝐥:
𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐁𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬 → Hazardous waste facilities face extreme permitting hurdles
𝐍𝐈𝐌𝐁𝐘 𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭 t → Even if permitted, communities resist new incinerators
𝐒𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐬 → Very few licensed hazardous waste incinerators exist
𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞 → These are not easily replicated digital products
𝐍𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 → Collection, transportation, disposal ecosystem
𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 → Owning both disposal + logistics compounds the moat
This is what a real moat looks like.
___
Interestingly:
$SIE.DE: +13% YTD
$CLH: +13% YTD
𝐀 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 — 𝐢𝐭’𝐬 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭.
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Video: Stripe | Dan Sundheim of D1 Capital | (10/22/2025)
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Offshore
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Bourbon Capital
$SPGI CEO Martina Cheung: "We've been providing essential intelligence to our customers for over 150 years. Over 95% of our revenue is tied to proprietary benchmarks, differentiated data and critical workflow tools, and we expect that percentage to increase over time"
Strong moat, high FCF yield, and fake disruption.. it’s absolutely beautiful.
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$SPGI CEO Martina Cheung: "We've been providing essential intelligence to our customers for over 150 years. Over 95% of our revenue is tied to proprietary benchmarks, differentiated data and critical workflow tools, and we expect that percentage to increase over time"
Strong moat, high FCF yield, and fake disruption.. it’s absolutely beautiful.
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Clark Square Capital
RT @dalibali2: True bottom fishing off my top of my head - what else is missing?
Zenv - 2x EBITDA (if you dont count the earn-out liability)
Expensify - 2-3x EBITDA
SSTI - 4x EBITDA
TDOC - 4x EBITDA
FRSH - 6x EBITDA
Adobe - 8x EBITDA
WDAY/CRM - ~9x EBITDA
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RT @dalibali2: True bottom fishing off my top of my head - what else is missing?
Zenv - 2x EBITDA (if you dont count the earn-out liability)
Expensify - 2-3x EBITDA
SSTI - 4x EBITDA
TDOC - 4x EBITDA
FRSH - 6x EBITDA
Adobe - 8x EBITDA
WDAY/CRM - ~9x EBITDA
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Lisa McClain just filed a purchase of up to $100K of private stock in Apptronik.
Apptronik produces humanoid robots.
McClain sits on the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber and Innovation. https://t.co/hM3VYZOIvX
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BREAKING: Representative Lisa McClain just filed a purchase of up to $100K of private stock in Apptronik.
Apptronik produces humanoid robots.
McClain sits on the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber and Innovation. https://t.co/hM3VYZOIvX
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Offshore
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Clark Square Capital
RT @Reignots: Fun little pullback on what appears to be algo selling into a thin, thin stock - will you let <$2MM of volume (so likely <$400K of actual position change) convince you this company is worth 5% lower today, and <1x P/E ex-cash? Added ~25% to long today. Will explode higher. $GRVY
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RT @Reignots: Fun little pullback on what appears to be algo selling into a thin, thin stock - will you let <$2MM of volume (so likely <$400K of actual position change) convince you this company is worth 5% lower today, and <1x P/E ex-cash? Added ~25% to long today. Will explode higher. $GRVY
Been a good high-sharpe move on $GRVY so far which is more meaningful amid the elevated vol elsewhere. But this is just the beginning. Fair value floor is $120 at 6x P/E ex-cash. https://t.co/UmVi9uR71q tweet
Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
Want to be contrarian?
- Short gold and silver
- Short the S&P 500
- Short semicaps
- Short memory stocks
- Buy long-term US Treasuries
- Hold Japanese yen
- Buy Southeast Asian small caps
- Buy offshore oil & gas services stocks
- Buy alcohol stocks
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Want to be contrarian?
- Short gold and silver
- Short the S&P 500
- Short semicaps
- Short memory stocks
- Buy long-term US Treasuries
- Hold Japanese yen
- Buy Southeast Asian small caps
- Buy offshore oil & gas services stocks
- Buy alcohol stocks
tweet
Offshore
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DAIR.AI
Claude Code is one of the most powerful tools for AI builders.
We are excited to introduce our new on-demand course on how to vibe code AI apps with Claude Code.
We cover topics ranging from connecting services to memory to leveraging Skills to build full AI apps. https://t.co/1xceurnf15
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Claude Code is one of the most powerful tools for AI builders.
We are excited to introduce our new on-demand course on how to vibe code AI apps with Claude Code.
We cover topics ranging from connecting services to memory to leveraging Skills to build full AI apps. https://t.co/1xceurnf15
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Offshore
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Javier Blas
RT @megacontango: Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. has bought back its shares that were held by CNIC Corp., marking an end to a decade of minority ownership in one of the world’s biggest commodity traders by companies linked to the Chinese state.
https://t.co/sifgC1V0fA
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RT @megacontango: Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. has bought back its shares that were held by CNIC Corp., marking an end to a decade of minority ownership in one of the world’s biggest commodity traders by companies linked to the Chinese state.
https://t.co/sifgC1V0fA
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Offshore
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @smartkarma: S Korean corporates are showing how it’s done https://t.co/qz8Deyk0F3
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RT @smartkarma: S Korean corporates are showing how it’s done https://t.co/qz8Deyk0F3
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