Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
Few $NBIS notes after this quarter.
I continue to believe the market will punish the stock - or not reward it as much as many expect.
Not because the company isn’t excellent, but because it did not reward $GOOG, so why would it reward $NBIS for the same behavior?
Fundamentally, everyone will be bullish. Demand is through the roof, compute was sold out, management is planning to build more sites, etc...
Everything FinX wants to see.
From a market perspective, Q4 CapEx slowed down, guidance talks about ~20% increase of contracted power for FY26 without news on connected power, except for the upgrade from 7 sites to 16 sites.
This means FY26 CapEx will accelerate - just like for everyone else, and won't slow down FY27 as contracted power continues to climb.
More spending. Which was punished across all hyperscalers.
Also note that ARR guidance wasn’t increased, meaning no beat expected hence nothing above expectations and no buildouts closing faster than expected.
Some will say "why would you want more? It doesn't matter, they are executing at their pace"
I disagree. Acceleration is everything, otherwise you'll miss on expectations just like they did.
That revenue miss is due to real-world constraints, as I’ve shared yesterday and for months: you cannot build faster than physics and logistics allow you to.
The issue is that growth factually slows/doesn't accelerate. Growth stocks work on acceleration not stable growth.
The why doesn’t matter, even if you’re supply constrained.
Growth slows, CapEx increases, cash generation decreases, and there are no certainties that demand won’t be fulfilled by other hyperscalers by the time infrastructure is built.
Like many of you, I believe there will be demand and everything will be fine. But today, you cannot know. You can bet on it, but you cannot know.
That is the issue. And that is why the market might react like it did for $GOOG.
I continue to believe the company is excellent and its future is bright. And that the stock won’t be rewarded as much as many expect in the short term.
I’d love to be wrong.
tweet
Few $NBIS notes after this quarter.
I continue to believe the market will punish the stock - or not reward it as much as many expect.
Not because the company isn’t excellent, but because it did not reward $GOOG, so why would it reward $NBIS for the same behavior?
Fundamentally, everyone will be bullish. Demand is through the roof, compute was sold out, management is planning to build more sites, etc...
Everything FinX wants to see.
From a market perspective, Q4 CapEx slowed down, guidance talks about ~20% increase of contracted power for FY26 without news on connected power, except for the upgrade from 7 sites to 16 sites.
This means FY26 CapEx will accelerate - just like for everyone else, and won't slow down FY27 as contracted power continues to climb.
More spending. Which was punished across all hyperscalers.
Also note that ARR guidance wasn’t increased, meaning no beat expected hence nothing above expectations and no buildouts closing faster than expected.
Some will say "why would you want more? It doesn't matter, they are executing at their pace"
I disagree. Acceleration is everything, otherwise you'll miss on expectations just like they did.
That revenue miss is due to real-world constraints, as I’ve shared yesterday and for months: you cannot build faster than physics and logistics allow you to.
The issue is that growth factually slows/doesn't accelerate. Growth stocks work on acceleration not stable growth.
The why doesn’t matter, even if you’re supply constrained.
Growth slows, CapEx increases, cash generation decreases, and there are no certainties that demand won’t be fulfilled by other hyperscalers by the time infrastructure is built.
Like many of you, I believe there will be demand and everything will be fine. But today, you cannot know. You can bet on it, but you cannot know.
That is the issue. And that is why the market might react like it did for $GOOG.
I continue to believe the company is excellent and its future is bright. And that the stock won’t be rewarded as much as many expect in the short term.
I’d love to be wrong.
$GOOG delivers killer earnings and deserves a lower premium for it.
Why? Simple.
The market rewards one thing only: consistent, safe cash generation.
ROI doesn’t matter.
Demand doesn’t matter.
Technological revolution doesn’t matter.
No cash. No premium.
https://t.co/dDXxvy08KM
$GOOGL, like $META before it, just told the market that nearly all yearly cash generation will be spent on CapEx ~$180B guided vs ~$100B expected.
AI hardware will keep generating cash and getting paid.
That doesn’t mean the market will reward the spenders - nor the one cashing the checks.
The market is not the economy.
The market is not the company.
The market rewards cash generation.
https://t.co/Rk1JDEi8Jz
Not understanding this is a classic investor mistake.
This is risk-off.
Risk-on will return.
https://t.co/PmRyeSpwmR tweet
Offshore
Photo
Brady Long
RT @thisguyknowsai: If you can build stuff like memory agents or plugins then do this to win $80k.
btw competition style marketing like this will only be more common. The more we automate the more we will need gamification to take action.
tweet
RT @thisguyknowsai: If you can build stuff like memory agents or plugins then do this to win $80k.
btw competition style marketing like this will only be more common. The more we automate the more we will need gamification to take action.
Memory Genesis Competition 2026 by EverMind is LIVE.
With @OpenAI among our supporting communities, we’re bringing together leading AI organizations around EverMemOS.
Build long-term memory agents, plugins, and OS infra on EverMemOS for a shot at $80k+ in prizes, revenue share on subscriptions you drive, and fast‑track career opportunities.
Jan–Mar 2026, global & hybrid.
Tracks for Agent+Memory, Platform Plugins, and OS Infrastructure.
Register now if you want to push agentic AI beyond the context window.
https://t.co/zIkh9t6Ta4 tweet
Offshore
Photo
Bourbon Capital
Over the past 10 years, $SPGI has dropped more than 30% three times:
1) Covid lockdown
2) Oct 2022 before FOMC Q&A
3) This week
What a wonderful time to be alive! https://t.co/qdXJCgILbz
tweet
Over the past 10 years, $SPGI has dropped more than 30% three times:
1) Covid lockdown
2) Oct 2022 before FOMC Q&A
3) This week
What a wonderful time to be alive! https://t.co/qdXJCgILbz
$SPGI is trading at 20x earnings for the first time since 2020 stock market crash https://t.co/LnfD4t36K4 tweet
Offshore
Photo
Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
Kahneman's System 1 sounds very much like probabilistic computing (AI) https://t.co/62Jc25nLJr
tweet
Kahneman's System 1 sounds very much like probabilistic computing (AI) https://t.co/62Jc25nLJr
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
Few $NBIS notes after this quarter.
I'll be the bear, once more.
I continue to believe the market will punish the stock - or not reward it as much as many expect.
Not because the company isn’t excellent, but because it did not reward $GOOG, so why would it reward $NBIS for the same behavior?
Fundamentally, everyone will be bullish. Demand is through the roof, compute was sold out, management is planning to build more sites, etc...
Everything FinX wants to see.
From a market perspective, Q4 CapEx slowed down, guidance talks about ~20% increase of contracted power for FY26 without news on connected power, except for the upgrade from 7 sites to 16 sites.
This means FY26 CapEx will accelerate - just like for everyone else, and won't slow down FY27 as contracted power continues to climb.
More spending. Which was punished across all hyperscalers.
Also note that ARR guidance wasn’t increased, meaning no beat expected hence nothing above expectations and no buildouts closing faster than expected.
Some will say "why would you want more? It doesn't matter, they are executing at their pace"
I disagree. Acceleration is everything, otherwise you'll miss on expectations just like they did.
That revenue miss is due to real-world constraints, as I’ve shared yesterday and for months: you cannot build faster than physics and logistics allow you to.
The issue is that growth factually slows/doesn't accelerate. Growth stocks work on acceleration not stable growth.
The why doesn’t matter, even if you’re supply constrained.
Growth slows, CapEx increases, cash generation decreases, and there are no certainties that demand won’t be fulfilled by other hyperscalers by the time infrastructure is built.
Like many of you, I believe there will be demand and everything will be fine. But today, you cannot know. You can bet on it, but you cannot know.
That is the issue. And that is why the market might react like it did for $GOOG.
I continue to believe the company is excellent and its future is bright. And that the stock won’t be rewarded as much as many expect in the short term.
I’d love to be wrong.
tweet
Few $NBIS notes after this quarter.
I'll be the bear, once more.
I continue to believe the market will punish the stock - or not reward it as much as many expect.
Not because the company isn’t excellent, but because it did not reward $GOOG, so why would it reward $NBIS for the same behavior?
Fundamentally, everyone will be bullish. Demand is through the roof, compute was sold out, management is planning to build more sites, etc...
Everything FinX wants to see.
From a market perspective, Q4 CapEx slowed down, guidance talks about ~20% increase of contracted power for FY26 without news on connected power, except for the upgrade from 7 sites to 16 sites.
This means FY26 CapEx will accelerate - just like for everyone else, and won't slow down FY27 as contracted power continues to climb.
More spending. Which was punished across all hyperscalers.
Also note that ARR guidance wasn’t increased, meaning no beat expected hence nothing above expectations and no buildouts closing faster than expected.
Some will say "why would you want more? It doesn't matter, they are executing at their pace"
I disagree. Acceleration is everything, otherwise you'll miss on expectations just like they did.
That revenue miss is due to real-world constraints, as I’ve shared yesterday and for months: you cannot build faster than physics and logistics allow you to.
The issue is that growth factually slows/doesn't accelerate. Growth stocks work on acceleration not stable growth.
The why doesn’t matter, even if you’re supply constrained.
Growth slows, CapEx increases, cash generation decreases, and there are no certainties that demand won’t be fulfilled by other hyperscalers by the time infrastructure is built.
Like many of you, I believe there will be demand and everything will be fine. But today, you cannot know. You can bet on it, but you cannot know.
That is the issue. And that is why the market might react like it did for $GOOG.
I continue to believe the company is excellent and its future is bright. And that the stock won’t be rewarded as much as many expect in the short term.
I’d love to be wrong.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
Veeva Systems is now trading at its lowest multiple ever.
EV/EBIT: 19x
$VEEV https://t.co/w2j911iZDE
tweet
Veeva Systems is now trading at its lowest multiple ever.
EV/EBIT: 19x
$VEEV https://t.co/w2j911iZDE
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Transcript
Organon double miss
Interim CEO: "In 2026 our primary objective is to maintain operational performance that aligns with last year."
$OGN: -10% PM https://t.co/pZA6ItXEEw
tweet
Organon double miss
Interim CEO: "In 2026 our primary objective is to maintain operational performance that aligns with last year."
$OGN: -10% PM https://t.co/pZA6ItXEEw
tweet
The Transcript
$CRM CEO:
tweet
$CRM CEO:
SAAS alive & well at @openai & @AnthropicAI! 👀 + per user pricing!
https://t.co/S0WTQjoIVP
https://t.co/k06Xf3CapE tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Marc Benioff (@Benioff) on X
SAAS alive & well at @openai & @AnthropicAI! 👀 + per user pricing!
https://t.co/S0WTQjoIVP
https://t.co/k06Xf3CapE
https://t.co/S0WTQjoIVP
https://t.co/k06Xf3CapE
Offshore
Photo
The Transcript
Sphere Entertainment CEO: "As we begin 2026, we remain focused on expanding Sphere’s global footprint, including advancing our plans to bring Sphere to Abu Dhabi and National Harbor.-..."
$SPHR: +14% PM https://t.co/5gOEJVEqbL
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Sphere Entertainment CEO: "As we begin 2026, we remain focused on expanding Sphere’s global footprint, including advancing our plans to bring Sphere to Abu Dhabi and National Harbor.-..."
$SPHR: +14% PM https://t.co/5gOEJVEqbL
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Transcript
TripAdvisor CEO: "Fourth quarter consolidated revenue of $411 million, flat with last year, was a result of accelerating revenue growth in experiences, offset by the expected pick up in headwinds in our legacy offerings"
$TRIP: -4% PM https://t.co/gRJpYg5gQr
tweet
TripAdvisor CEO: "Fourth quarter consolidated revenue of $411 million, flat with last year, was a result of accelerating revenue growth in experiences, offset by the expected pick up in headwinds in our legacy offerings"
$TRIP: -4% PM https://t.co/gRJpYg5gQr
tweet