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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @10_ch_10: I have begun averaging into Nintendo at these levels. It took a while for the stock to reach the point where a long-term position (~2 years) started to make sense. The whole run-up to the Switch 2 release has been deleted whilst the JPY has plummeted; it’s down ~50% from the lofty highs measured in SEK. $NTDOY $7974.JP
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RT @10_ch_10: I have begun averaging into Nintendo at these levels. It took a while for the stock to reach the point where a long-term position (~2 years) started to make sense. The whole run-up to the Switch 2 release has been deleted whilst the JPY has plummeted; it’s down ~50% from the lofty highs measured in SEK. $NTDOY $7974.JP
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Offshore
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @NickCortellucci: Notebook LLM is insane. Look at this summary of our thesis in $DWS.V https://t.co/syDk5DaiIp
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RT @NickCortellucci: Notebook LLM is insane. Look at this summary of our thesis in $DWS.V https://t.co/syDk5DaiIp
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Clark Square Capital
RT @dalibali2: True bottom fishing off my top of my head - what else is missing?
Zenv - 2x EBITDA (if you dont count the earn-out liability)
Expensify - 2-3x EBITDA
SSTI - 4x EBITDA
TDOC - 4x EBITDA
FRSH - 6x EBITDA
Adobe - 8x EBITDA
WDAY/CRM - ~9x EBITDA
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RT @dalibali2: True bottom fishing off my top of my head - what else is missing?
Zenv - 2x EBITDA (if you dont count the earn-out liability)
Expensify - 2-3x EBITDA
SSTI - 4x EBITDA
TDOC - 4x EBITDA
FRSH - 6x EBITDA
Adobe - 8x EBITDA
WDAY/CRM - ~9x EBITDA
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Jukan
Micron Actively Refutes HBM4 Disqualification Rumors
[Samsung Securities Semiconductor, IT / Jong-wook Lee]
Micron held a conference call to address the HBM4 disqualification controversy, and its stock rose 10%.
How should we interpret this?
1. What Micron Said
1.Guidance: Noted that DRAM price increases will drive results above what was indicated at the December 2025 earnings call. No specific figures provided.
2. DRAM market: Some customers are receiving only 50–66% of requested volumes. HBM is sold out. LTA (long-term agreement) commitments expanding. Inventory levels are very lean.
3. AI technology: AI demand is driving an increasing share of HBM and high-performance LPDDR. Hyperscaler capex is expected to reach $800 billion. CY26 server demand growth in the mid-teens percent (maintaining prior guidance).
4. HBM4: HBM4 shipments have begun — one quarter ahead of prior guidance.
5. NAND: Gaining NAND market share in both TLC and QLC.
6. New capacity additions: Idaho (ID1) to come online mid-2027, Taiwan Taoyuan (P5) by end of 2027, Singapore NAND fab in 2H 2028.
7.HBM’s capacity cannibalization effect: As HBM generations advance, wafer cannibalization intensifies, exacerbating memory supply shortages.
2. Implications of Micron’s Comments
1.HBM4: Micron aggressively countered market rumors of HBM4 disqualification by using the phrase “shipments have begun.” However, we still believe Micron’s shipments are limited to lower tranches with modest volumes, and its market share will decline year-over-year. Starting with HBM4E, Micron’s competitiveness could recover as it adopts foundry-based base dies. The equity market appears largely indifferent to the HBM competitive dynamics.
2. Bullish market outlook: Profits ultimately come from the commodity business. The company officially flagged DRAM price increases and strong earnings, and the market is cheering robust demand and consecutive earnings surprises.
3. Timing of the supply inflection point: Micron’s investments will not impact supply until mid-2027. Until then, the company has limited strategic options to address high-end, AI-driven demand.
3. Our View
1.We are currently passing through the most favorable risk-reward phase of the memory cycle. We define the inflection point as the moment when the rate of investment growth exceeds the rate of earnings growth, which we expect to occur after 2027.
2. In the near term, caution is warranted around 3Q as the pace of DRAM price increases decelerates. However, given the durability of earnings, any correction is likely to be temporary.
Thank you.
(Published 2/12/2026)
$MU
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Micron Actively Refutes HBM4 Disqualification Rumors
[Samsung Securities Semiconductor, IT / Jong-wook Lee]
Micron held a conference call to address the HBM4 disqualification controversy, and its stock rose 10%.
How should we interpret this?
1. What Micron Said
1.Guidance: Noted that DRAM price increases will drive results above what was indicated at the December 2025 earnings call. No specific figures provided.
2. DRAM market: Some customers are receiving only 50–66% of requested volumes. HBM is sold out. LTA (long-term agreement) commitments expanding. Inventory levels are very lean.
3. AI technology: AI demand is driving an increasing share of HBM and high-performance LPDDR. Hyperscaler capex is expected to reach $800 billion. CY26 server demand growth in the mid-teens percent (maintaining prior guidance).
4. HBM4: HBM4 shipments have begun — one quarter ahead of prior guidance.
5. NAND: Gaining NAND market share in both TLC and QLC.
6. New capacity additions: Idaho (ID1) to come online mid-2027, Taiwan Taoyuan (P5) by end of 2027, Singapore NAND fab in 2H 2028.
7.HBM’s capacity cannibalization effect: As HBM generations advance, wafer cannibalization intensifies, exacerbating memory supply shortages.
2. Implications of Micron’s Comments
1.HBM4: Micron aggressively countered market rumors of HBM4 disqualification by using the phrase “shipments have begun.” However, we still believe Micron’s shipments are limited to lower tranches with modest volumes, and its market share will decline year-over-year. Starting with HBM4E, Micron’s competitiveness could recover as it adopts foundry-based base dies. The equity market appears largely indifferent to the HBM competitive dynamics.
2. Bullish market outlook: Profits ultimately come from the commodity business. The company officially flagged DRAM price increases and strong earnings, and the market is cheering robust demand and consecutive earnings surprises.
3. Timing of the supply inflection point: Micron’s investments will not impact supply until mid-2027. Until then, the company has limited strategic options to address high-end, AI-driven demand.
3. Our View
1.We are currently passing through the most favorable risk-reward phase of the memory cycle. We define the inflection point as the moment when the rate of investment growth exceeds the rate of earnings growth, which we expect to occur after 2027.
2. In the near term, caution is warranted around 3Q as the pace of DRAM price increases decelerates. However, given the durability of earnings, any correction is likely to be temporary.
Thank you.
(Published 2/12/2026)
$MU
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Offshore
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Jukan
SK hynix Begins Expanding HBM4 Production Capacity with New Cheongju Packaging & Test Line
SK hynix has begun ramping up production of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). The company is initiating key equipment investments to bring its Cheongju HBM packaging and test fab online, responding to surging demand in the HBM market.
According to industry sources on the 12th, SK hynix recently began issuing purchase orders (POs) for semiconductor process equipment needed for its Cheongju P&T6 fab. Multiple semiconductor equipment company officials stated, "Initial orders to set up the process line have begun," adding that "equipment delivery will proceed in short order." SK hynix is expected to open the cleanroom as early as March, with equipment installation timed to coincide with that opening.
SK hynix's Cheongju P&T6 is the fab formerly known as M8. It was previously the fab of SK hynix System IC, the company's 8-inch semiconductor foundry subsidiary, but became vacant space after those operations were relocated to Wuxi, China. SK hynix decided in the first half of last year to convert the facility for HBM production. With equipment orders now underway, the company has officially begun building out the HBM line.
These orders are in the form of "initial POs." When assembling a semiconductor production line, a qualification phase is required to verify that everything operates properly, and this equipment installation is for that purpose.
P&T6 is a "back-end" facility for packaging DRAM into HBM and testing the finished product. The equipment orders are largely concentrated on packaging and test equipment.
The materials, parts, and equipment (MPE) industry expects large-scale orders to follow once the P&T6 line qualification is complete, as additional formal production lines will need to be built for mass production. Until now, there have been no large-scale orders in SK hynix's HBM packaging and test segment, due to a lack of available space. When additional equipment investment proceeds at P&T6, the MPE sector is also expected to get some breathing room. Mass production line buildout is anticipated as early as the second half of the year.
SK hynix will also be able to bolster its capacity to meet growing HBM demand. While expanded AI infrastructure investment has increased the need for HBM as an essential memory component, supply has not been able to keep pace. This is why SK hynix is rushing to convert P&T6 for HBM and accelerate the timelines for P&T7, M15X, and its first Yongin fab.
P&T6 is slated to ultimately produce sixth-generation HBM, known as "HBM4." This is the product SK hynix is preparing to supply to NVIDIA, the world's largest AI semiconductor chip company.
An industry official projected, "Once P&T6 is fully operational, SK hynix will gain additional production capacity of approximately 20,000 wafers per month." As of the end of last year, SK hynix's total HBM production capacity is estimated at roughly 150,000 wafers per month.
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SK hynix Begins Expanding HBM4 Production Capacity with New Cheongju Packaging & Test Line
SK hynix has begun ramping up production of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). The company is initiating key equipment investments to bring its Cheongju HBM packaging and test fab online, responding to surging demand in the HBM market.
According to industry sources on the 12th, SK hynix recently began issuing purchase orders (POs) for semiconductor process equipment needed for its Cheongju P&T6 fab. Multiple semiconductor equipment company officials stated, "Initial orders to set up the process line have begun," adding that "equipment delivery will proceed in short order." SK hynix is expected to open the cleanroom as early as March, with equipment installation timed to coincide with that opening.
SK hynix's Cheongju P&T6 is the fab formerly known as M8. It was previously the fab of SK hynix System IC, the company's 8-inch semiconductor foundry subsidiary, but became vacant space after those operations were relocated to Wuxi, China. SK hynix decided in the first half of last year to convert the facility for HBM production. With equipment orders now underway, the company has officially begun building out the HBM line.
These orders are in the form of "initial POs." When assembling a semiconductor production line, a qualification phase is required to verify that everything operates properly, and this equipment installation is for that purpose.
P&T6 is a "back-end" facility for packaging DRAM into HBM and testing the finished product. The equipment orders are largely concentrated on packaging and test equipment.
The materials, parts, and equipment (MPE) industry expects large-scale orders to follow once the P&T6 line qualification is complete, as additional formal production lines will need to be built for mass production. Until now, there have been no large-scale orders in SK hynix's HBM packaging and test segment, due to a lack of available space. When additional equipment investment proceeds at P&T6, the MPE sector is also expected to get some breathing room. Mass production line buildout is anticipated as early as the second half of the year.
SK hynix will also be able to bolster its capacity to meet growing HBM demand. While expanded AI infrastructure investment has increased the need for HBM as an essential memory component, supply has not been able to keep pace. This is why SK hynix is rushing to convert P&T6 for HBM and accelerate the timelines for P&T7, M15X, and its first Yongin fab.
P&T6 is slated to ultimately produce sixth-generation HBM, known as "HBM4." This is the product SK hynix is preparing to supply to NVIDIA, the world's largest AI semiconductor chip company.
An industry official projected, "Once P&T6 is fully operational, SK hynix will gain additional production capacity of approximately 20,000 wafers per month." As of the end of last year, SK hynix's total HBM production capacity is estimated at roughly 150,000 wafers per month.
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Offshore
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
"Fixed-asset investment in Singapore from Chinese companies surged more than eightfold in 2025... exceeding the US for the first time"
https://t.co/ntg6urtFPC
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"Fixed-asset investment in Singapore from Chinese companies surged more than eightfold in 2025... exceeding the US for the first time"
https://t.co/ntg6urtFPC
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The Transcript
RT @TheTranscript_: $CSCO Cisco EVP: "“Seventy percent of all AI products now at Cisco are using code that’s generated by AI..By 2026, we will have at least close to a half a dozen products that will have 100% of the code written by AI."
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RT @TheTranscript_: $CSCO Cisco EVP: "“Seventy percent of all AI products now at Cisco are using code that’s generated by AI..By 2026, we will have at least close to a half a dozen products that will have 100% of the code written by AI."
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Offshore
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
Pop Mart's China website traffic took another turn lower after the Valentine's Day collection and the Xinhua appearance put a spotlight on the brand https://t.co/hd9yxuMSoz
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Pop Mart's China website traffic took another turn lower after the Valentine's Day collection and the Xinhua appearance put a spotlight on the brand https://t.co/hd9yxuMSoz
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Offshore
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @valuedrift: The top has to be either Korean stocks going live on Interactive Brokers or the Hynix US listing.
Long at least until then!
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RT @valuedrift: The top has to be either Korean stocks going live on Interactive Brokers or the Hynix US listing.
Long at least until then!
Memory stocks look like they’re setting up for a parabolic finale.
$SNDK $MU $WDC $STX https://t.co/mxjSDsQTY0 tweet
Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @paulg: Your social status ≈ your college.
Your college ≈ your SAT score.
Your SAT score ≈ your SAT English score.
Your SAT English score ≈ how much you've read.
∴ Your social status ≈ how much you read in high school.
(Successive ≈s leak a lot, but still rather surprising.)
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RT @paulg: Your social status ≈ your college.
Your college ≈ your SAT score.
Your SAT score ≈ your SAT English score.
Your SAT English score ≈ how much you've read.
∴ Your social status ≈ how much you read in high school.
(Successive ≈s leak a lot, but still rather surprising.)
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
Clayton Christensen's book How to Measure Your Life:
1. Allocate time and attention to priority
2. Invest in relationships
3. Create a job/career with meaning
4. Focus on process, not willpower
5. Maintain integrity
6. Picture yourself 10-20yrs from now and try to minimize regret
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Clayton Christensen's book How to Measure Your Life:
1. Allocate time and attention to priority
2. Invest in relationships
3. Create a job/career with meaning
4. Focus on process, not willpower
5. Maintain integrity
6. Picture yourself 10-20yrs from now and try to minimize regret
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