The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: Market's reaction is entirely due to uncertainty with NVLinks/UALinks and the opex increase for hardware the market is uncertain of - why spend if Nvidia will replace you?
Analysts' question made it crystal clear this was the focus and the worries. Not CFO nor margins - which were expected as Scorpion P ramped up.
I think $ALAB proved it was capable with the customed Blackwell racks but the market wonders if it will be the case again with Rubin's.
Ridiculous concerns imo. But it'll need time to prove.
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RT @WealthyReadings: Market's reaction is entirely due to uncertainty with NVLinks/UALinks and the opex increase for hardware the market is uncertain of - why spend if Nvidia will replace you?
Analysts' question made it crystal clear this was the focus and the worries. Not CFO nor margins - which were expected as Scorpion P ramped up.
I think $ALAB proved it was capable with the customed Blackwell racks but the market wonders if it will be the case again with Rubin's.
Ridiculous concerns imo. But it'll need time to prove.
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Offshore
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: Anthropic didn’t launch a product on Windows.
They launched a proof of concept that shipping speed beats platform ownership.
Cowork just hit Windows with full feature parity. File access, multi-step task execution, plugins, MCP connectors. Everything macOS got a month ago.
But the real story isn’t the launch. It’s the math behind why it works.
Microsoft spends $37.5B per quarter on AI infrastructure. They pre-installed Copilot on every Windows 11 machine sold. They ran $60M+ in TV ads.
450 million M365 paid seats. 15 million Copilot subscribers. 3.3% conversion rate on their own customers. Market share dropping from 18.8% to 11.5% in six months.
96.7% of their own users looked at Copilot and passed.
Not because the AI is bad. Because the architecture is broken.
Copilot inherits M365’s permission system through the Graph API. Most companies have 15%+ of business-critical files improperly accessible. Turn on Copilot and suddenly any employee can surface sensitive data with a natural language query. So enterprises freeze. Run months-long governance audits. Delay rollouts indefinitely.
Anthropic looked at that and built the opposite.
Cowork is sandboxed to one folder. No enterprise permission layer. No Graph API. You point Claude at a directory, describe what you want done, and it executes.
They built the whole thing in a week and a half using Claude Code.
A week and a half versus $37.5B a quarter. That’s an asymmetry.
Microsoft can’t fix this without rebuilding how M365 handles file access across every tenant. That’s a multi-year architectural project. Meanwhile Anthropic is already on Windows, already working, already solving the exact problem that’s keeping Copilot frozen in enterprise procurement cycles.
The old playbook was: own the OS, own the user. The new playbook is: find where the OS owner’s architecture creates friction, build something that doesn’t have that friction, and ship it on their platform before they can react.
Anthropic doesn’t need to beat Microsoft. They just need to be the thing that works while IT is still running Copilot permission audits.
And they’re already there.
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RT @godofprompt: Anthropic didn’t launch a product on Windows.
They launched a proof of concept that shipping speed beats platform ownership.
Cowork just hit Windows with full feature parity. File access, multi-step task execution, plugins, MCP connectors. Everything macOS got a month ago.
But the real story isn’t the launch. It’s the math behind why it works.
Microsoft spends $37.5B per quarter on AI infrastructure. They pre-installed Copilot on every Windows 11 machine sold. They ran $60M+ in TV ads.
450 million M365 paid seats. 15 million Copilot subscribers. 3.3% conversion rate on their own customers. Market share dropping from 18.8% to 11.5% in six months.
96.7% of their own users looked at Copilot and passed.
Not because the AI is bad. Because the architecture is broken.
Copilot inherits M365’s permission system through the Graph API. Most companies have 15%+ of business-critical files improperly accessible. Turn on Copilot and suddenly any employee can surface sensitive data with a natural language query. So enterprises freeze. Run months-long governance audits. Delay rollouts indefinitely.
Anthropic looked at that and built the opposite.
Cowork is sandboxed to one folder. No enterprise permission layer. No Graph API. You point Claude at a directory, describe what you want done, and it executes.
They built the whole thing in a week and a half using Claude Code.
A week and a half versus $37.5B a quarter. That’s an asymmetry.
Microsoft can’t fix this without rebuilding how M365 handles file access across every tenant. That’s a multi-year architectural project. Meanwhile Anthropic is already on Windows, already working, already solving the exact problem that’s keeping Copilot frozen in enterprise procurement cycles.
The old playbook was: own the OS, own the user. The new playbook is: find where the OS owner’s architecture creates friction, build something that doesn’t have that friction, and ship it on their platform before they can react.
Anthropic doesn’t need to beat Microsoft. They just need to be the thing that works while IT is still running Copilot permission audits.
And they’re already there.
Introducing Claude Opus 4.6. Our smartest model got an upgrade.
Opus 4.6 plans more carefully, sustains agentic tasks for longer, operates reliably in massive codebases, and catches its own mistakes.
It’s also our first Opus-class model with 1M token context in beta. https://t.co/L1iQyRgT9x tweet
Illiquid
$aehr +35% thanks be @insane_analyst and @SunvMikey and of course all the SA people who have been writing about this company for years.
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$aehr +35% thanks be @insane_analyst and @SunvMikey and of course all the SA people who have been writing about this company for years.
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Offshore
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Javier Blas
OIL MARKET: According to the @WSJ, the Trump administration has discussed whether to seize tankers carrying Iranian oil.
But, **importantly** decided to hold off, concerned about Tehran's near-certain retaliation and the impact on global oil markets. https://t.co/VDegvmsMQd
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OIL MARKET: According to the @WSJ, the Trump administration has discussed whether to seize tankers carrying Iranian oil.
But, **importantly** decided to hold off, concerned about Tehran's near-certain retaliation and the impact on global oil markets. https://t.co/VDegvmsMQd
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Offshore
Video
Moon Dev
No one is safe
Openclaw will replace every single job
And i will show you exactly how
Every step of the way https://t.co/1YNVr2sJnd
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No one is safe
Openclaw will replace every single job
And i will show you exactly how
Every step of the way https://t.co/1YNVr2sJnd
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative John McGuire just filed a purchase of Nvidia stock, $NVDA.
McGuire sits on the AI subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee. https://t.co/AahD00xQFf
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JUST IN: Representative John McGuire just filed a purchase of Nvidia stock, $NVDA.
McGuire sits on the AI subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee. https://t.co/AahD00xQFf
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: This site is literally a prompt library with thousands of prompts for Claude, ChatGPT & Nano Banana. https://t.co/de2Z55Vkn0
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RT @godofprompt: This site is literally a prompt library with thousands of prompts for Claude, ChatGPT & Nano Banana. https://t.co/de2Z55Vkn0
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The Few Bets That Matter
Closed my $ALAB hedge.
Made a quick $950 per contract in less than 24h just by respecting price action & fundamental expectations.
Q1 was never meant to break records with Scorpion P starting volume and X just starting pre production.
The company delivered as best as possible. But when you run to the top of the range after 40% in three days, it's better to hedge growth stocks if the quarter reporting isn't expected to be pivotal.
My long position is red but the thesis remain as strong as yesterday. I just have more liquidity to buy now.
I'll detail the option play and logic later if interested.
https://t.co/LE1b6h3QfY
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Closed my $ALAB hedge.
Made a quick $950 per contract in less than 24h just by respecting price action & fundamental expectations.
Q1 was never meant to break records with Scorpion P starting volume and X just starting pre production.
The company delivered as best as possible. But when you run to the top of the range after 40% in three days, it's better to hedge growth stocks if the quarter reporting isn't expected to be pivotal.
My long position is red but the thesis remain as strong as yesterday. I just have more liquidity to buy now.
I'll detail the option play and logic later if interested.
https://t.co/LE1b6h3QfY
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$U down -33%.
Feels reminiscent of the 2022 bear market for many growth names. https://t.co/wDZcIjnASM
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$U down -33%.
Feels reminiscent of the 2022 bear market for many growth names. https://t.co/wDZcIjnASM
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