God of Prompt
“Judging AI based on free-tier ChatGPT is like evaluating the state of smartphones by using a flip phone.”

well said

https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg - Matt Shumer
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Jukan
Micron Technology: It's Okay If HBM4 Is a Bit Delayed – Chae Min-suk, Korea Investment & Securities

Micron's HBM4 schedule delay is inevitable
- Micron's stock weakened after SemiAnalysis reported it would adjust Micron's share in NVIDIA's HBM4 to 0%
- However, we had already updated in our August 2025 report that Micron's HBM4 schedule would be delayed due to HBM4 speed upgrade issues
- Our HBM model already adjusted Micron's 2026 HBM4 market share to around 1%, factoring in redesign and sample schedule delays

Impact on earnings expected to be minimal
- The delay in Micron's HBM4 is not expected to significantly impact earnings
- This is because most of the upside in the 2026 memory market will be driven by commodity DRAM and NAND ASP increases
- As of Q4 2025, commodity DRAM operating margins likely already exceeded HBM operating margins
- Unlike HBM, where prices are determined on an annual basis, commodity DRAM ASPs are rising significantly on a quarterly basis, meaning the share of commodity DRAM in revenue and operating profit will expand considerably in 2026 compared to 2025
- According to our HBM model, HBM is estimated to account for 9% of Micron's DRAM by volume, 11% by revenue, and approximately 8% of DRAM operating profit in 2026
- Additionally, the current tight supply environment will also work in Micron's favor
- Even if Micron cannot supply HBM4, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have limited additional supply capacity due to constrained capacity
- While market entry for HBM4 may be limited in 2026, full-scale supply should be possible from 2027 onward following the submission of improved samples

Short-term share price correction is a buying opportunity
- We maintain a positive outlook on Micron
- HBM remains a strategically important product, but its contribution to earnings in 2026 is relatively less significant compared to 2025
- In particular, the current tight supply environment limits competitors' ability to expand supply further, serving as a floor for Micron's earnings
- Data center memory demand will translate into rising commodity DRAM ASPs, and based on this, Micron's earnings are expected to continue trending upward

$MU
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Javier Blas
OIL MARKET: Washington issues a new general license to allow oilfield-service companies to work in Venezuela — it’s a crucial step to boost oil output in the Latin American country. https://t.co/ozdDE2MiMZ
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: sometimes i have doubts about everything i'm making

ai will do this, ai will do that

what will be left for us to do?

but words like these make me grind harder https://t.co/EVBaHI8QUa
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @firstadopter: The definitive list of the best newsletters on the internet. Congrats to all who made it. https://t.co/JLkDkiEaCY
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @douglaskimkorea: We believe there is a 30% chance the Korean govt concludes mandatory treasury share cancellations by late February, a 40% chance in March, and a 30% probability of further delays beyond March 2026. https://t.co/ANQ5GvcQO9
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Did you know that $SPGI & Anthropic announced a collaboration to bring financial data into Claude?

“With this cutting-edge integration, customers can unlock S&P Global’s trusted data and insights seamlessly and reliably within Anthropic’s Claude.”

Source: Kensho Communications https://t.co/3c8263d2aP

Kensho is one of the more under-the-radar assets inside $SPGI.

It’s $SPGI AI and data analytics platform, built to analyze massive, complex datasets across economics, geopolitics, financial markets, and corporate fundamentals—used by asset managers, banks, governments, and enterprises.

While most of the focus is on ratings and indices, Kensho quietly expands $SPGI moat by embedding AI-driven insights deeper into client workflows, increasing switching costs and long-term relevance.

Not flashy, but the kind of capability that can strengthen a toll-booth business over time.
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3Q 2025 Earnings Call:

“We acquired Kensho back in 2018, including that acquisition since 2018, we have invested over $1B in AI innovation across three developmental stages…

Importantly, our AI innovation serves as a powerful example of our ability to leverage our scale, our expertise and our fiscal discipline. The fact that we made such bold investments early on means that we’ve been able to innovate very efficiently from a financial perspective.”
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@contextinvestor thank you for the thoughtful comment. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: 20 Quality Compounders Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) >30% over LTM 💸

1. $NFLX 30%
2. $TSM 30%
3. $CTAS 31%
4. $BLK 33%
5. $PM 34%
6. $VLO 35%
7. $NVR 36%
8. $V 38%
9. $KLAC 42%
10. $ASML 43%
11. $MTD 44%
12. $LRCX 46%
13. $STX 51%
14. $MA 60%
15. $IDXX 62%
16. $APP 63%
17. $AAPL 65%
18. $BKNG 68%
19. $NVDA 81%
20. $FICO 89%
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𝘼 𝙝𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙚𝙧 𝙍𝙊𝘾𝙀 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤 𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙚𝙛𝙛𝙞𝙘𝙞𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙘𝙖𝙥𝙞𝙩𝙖𝙡 𝙪𝙨𝙖𝙜𝙚 👇🏽

𝐑𝐎𝐂𝐄 = 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭 (𝐄𝐁𝐈𝐓) ÷ 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐄𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐲𝐞𝐝

𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭 (𝐄𝐁𝐈𝐓) = profit before interest and taxes

𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐄𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐲𝐞𝐝 = total capital used in the business*

*Commonly calculated as Total Assets − Current Liabilities 𝘖𝘳 Equity + Long-term Debt
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Imagine a car wash business:

You invest $1,000,000 to build it (land, equipment, machines)

Each year, the car wash generates $200,000 in operating profit (before interest & taxes)

ROCE = $200,000 ÷ $1,000,000 = 20%

𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘮𝘦𝘢𝘯𝘴: For every dollar tied up in the business, the company generates 20 cents of operating profit per year
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