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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Chris Hohn on why Aerospace sits firmly in his investable universe:
“Aerospace is a sector we’ve come to understand where the barriers to entry are multiple… hard assets, contracts, network effects… intellectual property, contracts, installed base, regulatory switching costs.”
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𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧:
𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙤𝙨𝙩 𝙙𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙗𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙨 𝙙𝙤𝙣’𝙩 𝙧𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙤𝙣 𝙤𝙣𝙚 𝙢𝙤𝙖𝙩 — 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙮 𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙘𝙠 𝙢𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙞𝙥𝙡𝙚 𝙗𝙖𝙧𝙧𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙮. 𝙀𝙖𝙘𝙝 𝙡𝙖𝙮𝙚𝙧 𝙢𝙖𝙠𝙚𝙨 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙧𝙪𝙥𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙙𝙚𝙧; 𝙩𝙤𝙜𝙚𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧, 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙮 𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙣𝙚𝙖𝙧-𝙞𝙢𝙢𝙪𝙣𝙞𝙩𝙮.
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Why multiple barriers matter:
𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐬 → capital intensity discourages new entrants
𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 → long-dated agreements with OEMs & airlines
𝐍𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 → scale advantages in service, parts, and support
𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 → decades of engineering know-how that can’t be replicated quickly
𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞 → once equipment is flying, customers can’t easily switch
𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 & 𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 → enormous time, cost, and risk to gain approval
𝐒𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐬 → safety, reliability, and downtime risks deter change
𝐄𝐚𝐜𝐡 𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐫 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫.
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5 High-Quality Aerospace businesses worth adding to your watchlist:
1. $GE GE Aerospace
3-Year CAGR: +58%
2. $HWM Howmet Aerospace
3-Year CAGR: +76%
3. $TDG TransDigm Group
3-Year CAGR: +20%
4. $HEI Heico
3-Year CAGR: +23%
5. $RTX RTX Corporation
3-Year CAGR: +27%
When investors talk about “disruption risk,” sectors with layered moats like aerospace are often underestimated. Patience — and respect for barriers — tends to be rewarded.
___
Video: Norges Bank Investment Mangement | Investment Conference 2025 (07/23/2025)
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RT @DimitryNakhla: Chris Hohn on why Aerospace sits firmly in his investable universe:
“Aerospace is a sector we’ve come to understand where the barriers to entry are multiple… hard assets, contracts, network effects… intellectual property, contracts, installed base, regulatory switching costs.”
___
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧:
𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙤𝙨𝙩 𝙙𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙗𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙨 𝙙𝙤𝙣’𝙩 𝙧𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙤𝙣 𝙤𝙣𝙚 𝙢𝙤𝙖𝙩 — 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙮 𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙘𝙠 𝙢𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙞𝙥𝙡𝙚 𝙗𝙖𝙧𝙧𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙮. 𝙀𝙖𝙘𝙝 𝙡𝙖𝙮𝙚𝙧 𝙢𝙖𝙠𝙚𝙨 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙧𝙪𝙥𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙙𝙚𝙧; 𝙩𝙤𝙜𝙚𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧, 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙮 𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙣𝙚𝙖𝙧-𝙞𝙢𝙢𝙪𝙣𝙞𝙩𝙮.
___
Why multiple barriers matter:
𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐬 → capital intensity discourages new entrants
𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 → long-dated agreements with OEMs & airlines
𝐍𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 → scale advantages in service, parts, and support
𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 → decades of engineering know-how that can’t be replicated quickly
𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞 → once equipment is flying, customers can’t easily switch
𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 & 𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 → enormous time, cost, and risk to gain approval
𝐒𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐬 → safety, reliability, and downtime risks deter change
𝐄𝐚𝐜𝐡 𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐫 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫.
___
5 High-Quality Aerospace businesses worth adding to your watchlist:
1. $GE GE Aerospace
3-Year CAGR: +58%
2. $HWM Howmet Aerospace
3-Year CAGR: +76%
3. $TDG TransDigm Group
3-Year CAGR: +20%
4. $HEI Heico
3-Year CAGR: +23%
5. $RTX RTX Corporation
3-Year CAGR: +27%
When investors talk about “disruption risk,” sectors with layered moats like aerospace are often underestimated. Patience — and respect for barriers — tends to be rewarded.
___
Video: Norges Bank Investment Mangement | Investment Conference 2025 (07/23/2025)
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DAIR.AI
RT @omarsar0: This team has been publishing some really interesting work on diffusion LLMs.
LLaDA 2.1 is a 100B discrete diffusion LLM with a draft-then-edit approach.
It hits a peak speed of 892 tokens/s on complex coding tasks.
Autoregressive models commit to every token permanently but LLaDA 2.1 can go back and fix mistakes mid-generation. The error handling capabilities are worth looking into.
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RT @omarsar0: This team has been publishing some really interesting work on diffusion LLMs.
LLaDA 2.1 is a 100B discrete diffusion LLM with a draft-then-edit approach.
It hits a peak speed of 892 tokens/s on complex coding tasks.
Autoregressive models commit to every token permanently but LLaDA 2.1 can go back and fix mistakes mid-generation. The error handling capabilities are worth looking into.
What if an LLM could EDIT its own tokens in real-time, not just generate them? 🤯
Introducing LLaDA2.1 — a diffusion model that breaks from autoregressive dominance. It drafts fast, then fixes its own mistakes on the fly with Token-to-Token editing.
The result? 892 tokens/sec on a 100B model. 🔥
⚡ 892 TPS on HumanEval+ (coding)
⚡ 801 TPS on BigCodeBench
🧠 Real-time self-correction via T2T editing
✅ @lmsysorg SGLang Day 0 support — production-ready now
A "non-consensus" architecture now challenging the mainstream. Open-sourced TODAY. 👇
#LLaDA #TokenEditing #OpenSource #LLM #dLLM tweet
God of Prompt
“Judging AI based on free-tier ChatGPT is like evaluating the state of smartphones by using a flip phone.”
well said
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“Judging AI based on free-tier ChatGPT is like evaluating the state of smartphones by using a flip phone.”
well said
https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg tweet
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Matt Shumer (@mattshumer_) on X
Something Big Is Happening
Jukan
Micron Technology: It's Okay If HBM4 Is a Bit Delayed – Chae Min-suk, Korea Investment & Securities
Micron's HBM4 schedule delay is inevitable
- Micron's stock weakened after SemiAnalysis reported it would adjust Micron's share in NVIDIA's HBM4 to 0%
- However, we had already updated in our August 2025 report that Micron's HBM4 schedule would be delayed due to HBM4 speed upgrade issues
- Our HBM model already adjusted Micron's 2026 HBM4 market share to around 1%, factoring in redesign and sample schedule delays
Impact on earnings expected to be minimal
- The delay in Micron's HBM4 is not expected to significantly impact earnings
- This is because most of the upside in the 2026 memory market will be driven by commodity DRAM and NAND ASP increases
- As of Q4 2025, commodity DRAM operating margins likely already exceeded HBM operating margins
- Unlike HBM, where prices are determined on an annual basis, commodity DRAM ASPs are rising significantly on a quarterly basis, meaning the share of commodity DRAM in revenue and operating profit will expand considerably in 2026 compared to 2025
- According to our HBM model, HBM is estimated to account for 9% of Micron's DRAM by volume, 11% by revenue, and approximately 8% of DRAM operating profit in 2026
- Additionally, the current tight supply environment will also work in Micron's favor
- Even if Micron cannot supply HBM4, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have limited additional supply capacity due to constrained capacity
- While market entry for HBM4 may be limited in 2026, full-scale supply should be possible from 2027 onward following the submission of improved samples
Short-term share price correction is a buying opportunity
- We maintain a positive outlook on Micron
- HBM remains a strategically important product, but its contribution to earnings in 2026 is relatively less significant compared to 2025
- In particular, the current tight supply environment limits competitors' ability to expand supply further, serving as a floor for Micron's earnings
- Data center memory demand will translate into rising commodity DRAM ASPs, and based on this, Micron's earnings are expected to continue trending upward
$MU
tweet
Micron Technology: It's Okay If HBM4 Is a Bit Delayed – Chae Min-suk, Korea Investment & Securities
Micron's HBM4 schedule delay is inevitable
- Micron's stock weakened after SemiAnalysis reported it would adjust Micron's share in NVIDIA's HBM4 to 0%
- However, we had already updated in our August 2025 report that Micron's HBM4 schedule would be delayed due to HBM4 speed upgrade issues
- Our HBM model already adjusted Micron's 2026 HBM4 market share to around 1%, factoring in redesign and sample schedule delays
Impact on earnings expected to be minimal
- The delay in Micron's HBM4 is not expected to significantly impact earnings
- This is because most of the upside in the 2026 memory market will be driven by commodity DRAM and NAND ASP increases
- As of Q4 2025, commodity DRAM operating margins likely already exceeded HBM operating margins
- Unlike HBM, where prices are determined on an annual basis, commodity DRAM ASPs are rising significantly on a quarterly basis, meaning the share of commodity DRAM in revenue and operating profit will expand considerably in 2026 compared to 2025
- According to our HBM model, HBM is estimated to account for 9% of Micron's DRAM by volume, 11% by revenue, and approximately 8% of DRAM operating profit in 2026
- Additionally, the current tight supply environment will also work in Micron's favor
- Even if Micron cannot supply HBM4, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have limited additional supply capacity due to constrained capacity
- While market entry for HBM4 may be limited in 2026, full-scale supply should be possible from 2027 onward following the submission of improved samples
Short-term share price correction is a buying opportunity
- We maintain a positive outlook on Micron
- HBM remains a strategically important product, but its contribution to earnings in 2026 is relatively less significant compared to 2025
- In particular, the current tight supply environment limits competitors' ability to expand supply further, serving as a floor for Micron's earnings
- Data center memory demand will translate into rising commodity DRAM ASPs, and based on this, Micron's earnings are expected to continue trending upward
$MU
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Javier Blas
OIL MARKET: Washington issues a new general license to allow oilfield-service companies to work in Venezuela — it’s a crucial step to boost oil output in the Latin American country. https://t.co/ozdDE2MiMZ
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OIL MARKET: Washington issues a new general license to allow oilfield-service companies to work in Venezuela — it’s a crucial step to boost oil output in the Latin American country. https://t.co/ozdDE2MiMZ
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: sometimes i have doubts about everything i'm making
ai will do this, ai will do that
what will be left for us to do?
but words like these make me grind harder https://t.co/EVBaHI8QUa
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RT @godofprompt: sometimes i have doubts about everything i'm making
ai will do this, ai will do that
what will be left for us to do?
but words like these make me grind harder https://t.co/EVBaHI8QUa
tweet
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @firstadopter: The definitive list of the best newsletters on the internet. Congrats to all who made it. https://t.co/JLkDkiEaCY
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RT @firstadopter: The definitive list of the best newsletters on the internet. Congrats to all who made it. https://t.co/JLkDkiEaCY
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @douglaskimkorea: We believe there is a 30% chance the Korean govt concludes mandatory treasury share cancellations by late February, a 40% chance in March, and a 30% probability of further delays beyond March 2026. https://t.co/ANQ5GvcQO9
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RT @douglaskimkorea: We believe there is a 30% chance the Korean govt concludes mandatory treasury share cancellations by late February, a 40% chance in March, and a 30% probability of further delays beyond March 2026. https://t.co/ANQ5GvcQO9
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