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Javier Blas
COLUMN: Britrish oil giant BP should suspend its $750 million quarterly share buybacks to give incoming CEO Meg O'Neill (who arrives in April) extra financial breathing room.
@Opinion $BP
https://t.co/23vNRD4Nsw
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COLUMN: Britrish oil giant BP should suspend its $750 million quarterly share buybacks to give incoming CEO Meg O'Neill (who arrives in April) extra financial breathing room.
@Opinion $BP
https://t.co/23vNRD4Nsw
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Brady Long
🚨 I watched a senior engineer at Anthropic build a feature in 4 hours that would've taken me 3 days.
He wasn't coding faster. He was running 8 Claude instances in parallel—each solving different parts simultaneously.
The future of coding isn't writing code. It's orchestrating AI swarms.
Here's the framework:
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🚨 I watched a senior engineer at Anthropic build a feature in 4 hours that would've taken me 3 days.
He wasn't coding faster. He was running 8 Claude instances in parallel—each solving different parts simultaneously.
The future of coding isn't writing code. It's orchestrating AI swarms.
Here's the framework:
tweet
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @nishantkumar07: Updated: January hedge fund returns table, now includes Rokos, Pharo, Walleye + others. Macro popped, multistrats mostly did their steady grind https://t.co/cHF359ud8U
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RT @nishantkumar07: Updated: January hedge fund returns table, now includes Rokos, Pharo, Walleye + others. Macro popped, multistrats mostly did their steady grind https://t.co/cHF359ud8U
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @InvestInJapan: @imuvill is creating the "Japanese Berkshire" His company Kaihou just acquired a 31% stake in Jiban Net.
As always, I will be rooting for him!!! https://t.co/R1HTNsUUCc
tweet
RT @InvestInJapan: @imuvill is creating the "Japanese Berkshire" His company Kaihou just acquired a 31% stake in Jiban Net.
As always, I will be rooting for him!!! https://t.co/R1HTNsUUCc
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God of Prompt
RIP "act as an expert" and basic prompting.
A former OpenAI engineer just exposed "Prompt Contract" - the internal technique that makes LLMs actually obey you.
Works on ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, everything.
Here's how to use it right now: https://t.co/6ZDCFs5JvK
tweet
RIP "act as an expert" and basic prompting.
A former OpenAI engineer just exposed "Prompt Contract" - the internal technique that makes LLMs actually obey you.
Works on ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, everything.
Here's how to use it right now: https://t.co/6ZDCFs5JvK
tweet
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The Few Bets That Matter
I'd be careful using forward PE on hyperscalers like $MSFT.
Depreciation and amortization will start to damage earnings during 2026 and that will increase through 2027, we've seen it with $META already.
That won't change cash generation but that will increase PE, and that is not priced in yet.
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I'd be careful using forward PE on hyperscalers like $MSFT.
Depreciation and amortization will start to damage earnings during 2026 and that will increase through 2027, we've seen it with $META already.
That won't change cash generation but that will increase PE, and that is not priced in yet.
Microsoft now trades at a lower forward multiple than IBM, for the first time in 10+ years.
Forward P/E:
$MSFT: 22.9x
$IBM: 24.1x https://t.co/PDJpZoUd9C tweet
Offshore
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Jukan
Supply Shortage Reshapes LTA Dynamics… Contract Periods Shrink and Power Balance Flips
As the supply shortage drags on, the trading order in the memory semiconductor market is rapidly being reorganized. With the semiconductor supply crunch persisting over an extended period, the initiative in long-term supply agreements (LTAs) is shifting from customers to semiconductor suppliers. In the past, smartphone and PC manufacturers seeking stable procurement were the ones to propose long-term contracts first, but recently memory chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have been presenting contract terms first, signaling a shift in the market's balance of power.
According to industry sources on the 9th, the contract periods of LTAs recently signed by Korean memory chipmakers are getting shorter. LTA durations vary from six months to one year depending on the product and end customer, but industry insiders universally say these periods have been shrinking lately.
The analysis is that as the semiconductor supply shortage continues, suppliers are opting for shorter contract periods. In a rising-price environment, shorter contract durations allow suppliers to reflect updated pricing more quickly, giving them an advantage in negotiations.
The initiative in LTAs is also shifting from customers to memory suppliers. Previously, it was common for smartphone and PC makers to propose long-term supply agreements first to secure volume, but recently Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are increasingly taking the lead in setting contract terms and structures. As the semiconductor supply shortage extends, the center of gravity in business relationships is tilting toward suppliers.
Lee Jong-wook, a researcher at Samsung Securities, analyzed: "It was customers who first proposed long-term supply agreements, but now memory suppliers are leading the LTAs. NCNR (non-cancellable, non-returnable) contracts with no price negotiation are expanding to PCs, mobile, and commodity DRAM, causing the volume of available spot supply in the market to shrink dramatically."
Stockpiling behavior is also emerging. According to market research firm TrendForce, smartphone manufacturers are being extremely cautious about immediately reducing their LTA-based memory purchase volumes this year. TrendForce noted: "Concerned about further price increases and potential supply shortages, they are preemptively prioritizing resource procurement to avoid future allocation restrictions." In other words, despite slowing global smartphone demand and a negative market outlook, companies are stocking up on semiconductors out of fear of supply constraints and additional procurement cost increases ahead.
For smartphone makers, rather than cutting production or trimming contracted volumes right away, the more pressing concern has become whether they can receive memory shipments on time going forward. The worry is that tampering with contracts now could mean failing to secure adequate volume next quarter or next year, or having to re-contract at even higher prices. So even in an unfavorable market, they appear to be maintaining their long-term supply agreements as-is.
Memory chipmakers share this view. During the conference call following its Q4 earnings announcement, SK hynix explained: "In the past, LTAs had loose volume commitments and were highly flexible depending on market conditions. The LTAs being discussed recently are not mere purchase intentions but arrangements where customers and suppliers firmly commit volumes to each other." This implies that from the supplier's perspective, demand visibility has become far more important than before.
An industry insider said: "In this unprecedented memory supply shortage, the power dynamic between buyer and seller is reversing. Even as consumer electronics demand slows, semiconductor supply contracts are being maintained — and these contracts are, in turn, entrenching the supply shortage and price increases in a self-reinforcing cycle."
$M[...]
Supply Shortage Reshapes LTA Dynamics… Contract Periods Shrink and Power Balance Flips
As the supply shortage drags on, the trading order in the memory semiconductor market is rapidly being reorganized. With the semiconductor supply crunch persisting over an extended period, the initiative in long-term supply agreements (LTAs) is shifting from customers to semiconductor suppliers. In the past, smartphone and PC manufacturers seeking stable procurement were the ones to propose long-term contracts first, but recently memory chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have been presenting contract terms first, signaling a shift in the market's balance of power.
According to industry sources on the 9th, the contract periods of LTAs recently signed by Korean memory chipmakers are getting shorter. LTA durations vary from six months to one year depending on the product and end customer, but industry insiders universally say these periods have been shrinking lately.
The analysis is that as the semiconductor supply shortage continues, suppliers are opting for shorter contract periods. In a rising-price environment, shorter contract durations allow suppliers to reflect updated pricing more quickly, giving them an advantage in negotiations.
The initiative in LTAs is also shifting from customers to memory suppliers. Previously, it was common for smartphone and PC makers to propose long-term supply agreements first to secure volume, but recently Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are increasingly taking the lead in setting contract terms and structures. As the semiconductor supply shortage extends, the center of gravity in business relationships is tilting toward suppliers.
Lee Jong-wook, a researcher at Samsung Securities, analyzed: "It was customers who first proposed long-term supply agreements, but now memory suppliers are leading the LTAs. NCNR (non-cancellable, non-returnable) contracts with no price negotiation are expanding to PCs, mobile, and commodity DRAM, causing the volume of available spot supply in the market to shrink dramatically."
Stockpiling behavior is also emerging. According to market research firm TrendForce, smartphone manufacturers are being extremely cautious about immediately reducing their LTA-based memory purchase volumes this year. TrendForce noted: "Concerned about further price increases and potential supply shortages, they are preemptively prioritizing resource procurement to avoid future allocation restrictions." In other words, despite slowing global smartphone demand and a negative market outlook, companies are stocking up on semiconductors out of fear of supply constraints and additional procurement cost increases ahead.
For smartphone makers, rather than cutting production or trimming contracted volumes right away, the more pressing concern has become whether they can receive memory shipments on time going forward. The worry is that tampering with contracts now could mean failing to secure adequate volume next quarter or next year, or having to re-contract at even higher prices. So even in an unfavorable market, they appear to be maintaining their long-term supply agreements as-is.
Memory chipmakers share this view. During the conference call following its Q4 earnings announcement, SK hynix explained: "In the past, LTAs had loose volume commitments and were highly flexible depending on market conditions. The LTAs being discussed recently are not mere purchase intentions but arrangements where customers and suppliers firmly commit volumes to each other." This implies that from the supplier's perspective, demand visibility has become far more important than before.
An industry insider said: "In this unprecedented memory supply shortage, the power dynamic between buyer and seller is reversing. Even as consumer electronics demand slows, semiconductor supply contracts are being maintained — and these contracts are, in turn, entrenching the supply shortage and price increases in a self-reinforcing cycle."
$M[...]
Offshore
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Jukan
Apparently memory makers are trying to keep LTAs as short as possible.
And even when they do sign LTAs, they're locking in contracts with "non-cancellable, non-returnable terms and no price negotiation" lol
Supply Shortage Reshapes LTA Dynamics… Contract Periods Shrink and Power Balance Flips
As the supply shortage drags on, the trading order in the memory semiconductor market is rapidly being reorganized. With the semiconductor supply crunch persisting over an extended period, the initiative in long-term supply agreements (LTAs) is shifting from customers to semiconductor suppliers. In the past, smartphone and PC manufacturers seeking stable procurement were the ones to propose long-term contracts first, but recently memory chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have been presenting contract terms first, signaling a shift in the market's balance of power.
According to industry sources on the 9th, the contract periods of LTAs recently signed by Korean memory chipmakers are getting shorter. LTA durations vary from six months to one year depending on the product and end customer, but industry insiders universally say these periods have been shrinking lately.
The analysis is that as the semiconductor supply shortage continues, suppliers are opting for shorter contract periods. In a rising-price environment, shorter contract durations allow suppliers to reflect updated pricing more quickly, giving them an advantage in negotiations.
The initiative in LTAs is also shifting from customers to memory suppliers. Previously, it was common for smartphone and PC makers to propose long-term supply agreements first to secure volume, but recently Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are increasingly taking the lead in setting contract terms and structures. As the semiconductor supply shortage extends, the center of gravity in business relationships is tilting toward suppliers.
Lee Jong-wook, a researcher at Samsung Securities, analyzed: "It was customers who first proposed long-term supply agreements, but now memory suppliers are leading the LTAs. NCNR (non-cancellable, non-returnable) contracts with no price negotiation are expanding to PCs, mobile, and commodity DRAM, causing the volume of available spot supply in the market to shrink dramatically."
Stockpiling behavior is also emerging. According to market research firm TrendForce, smartphone manufacturers are being extremely cautious about immediately reducing their LTA-based memory purchase volumes this year. TrendForce noted: "Concerned about further price increases and potential supply shortages, they are preemptively prioritizing resource procurement to avoid future allocation restrictions." In other words, despite slowing global smartphone demand and a negative market outlook, companies are stocking up on semiconductors out of fear of supply constraints and additional procurement cost increases ahead.
For smartphone makers, rather than cutting production or trimming contracted volumes right away, the more pressing concern has become whether they can receive memory shipments on time going forward. The worry is that tampering with contracts now could mean failing to secure adequate volume next quarter or next year, or having to re-contract at even higher prices. So even in an unfavorable market, they appear to be maintaining their long-term supply agreements as-is.
Memory chipmakers share this view. During the conference call following its Q4 earnings announcement, SK hynix explained: "In the past, LTAs had loose volume commitments and were highly flexible depending on market conditions. The LTAs being discussed recently are not mere purchase intentions but arrangements where customers and suppliers firmly commit volumes to each other." This implies that from the supplier's perspective, demand visibility has become far more important than before.
An industry insider said: "In this unprecedented memory supply shortage, the power dynamic between buyer and seller is reversing.[...]
Apparently memory makers are trying to keep LTAs as short as possible.
And even when they do sign LTAs, they're locking in contracts with "non-cancellable, non-returnable terms and no price negotiation" lol
Supply Shortage Reshapes LTA Dynamics… Contract Periods Shrink and Power Balance Flips
As the supply shortage drags on, the trading order in the memory semiconductor market is rapidly being reorganized. With the semiconductor supply crunch persisting over an extended period, the initiative in long-term supply agreements (LTAs) is shifting from customers to semiconductor suppliers. In the past, smartphone and PC manufacturers seeking stable procurement were the ones to propose long-term contracts first, but recently memory chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have been presenting contract terms first, signaling a shift in the market's balance of power.
According to industry sources on the 9th, the contract periods of LTAs recently signed by Korean memory chipmakers are getting shorter. LTA durations vary from six months to one year depending on the product and end customer, but industry insiders universally say these periods have been shrinking lately.
The analysis is that as the semiconductor supply shortage continues, suppliers are opting for shorter contract periods. In a rising-price environment, shorter contract durations allow suppliers to reflect updated pricing more quickly, giving them an advantage in negotiations.
The initiative in LTAs is also shifting from customers to memory suppliers. Previously, it was common for smartphone and PC makers to propose long-term supply agreements first to secure volume, but recently Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are increasingly taking the lead in setting contract terms and structures. As the semiconductor supply shortage extends, the center of gravity in business relationships is tilting toward suppliers.
Lee Jong-wook, a researcher at Samsung Securities, analyzed: "It was customers who first proposed long-term supply agreements, but now memory suppliers are leading the LTAs. NCNR (non-cancellable, non-returnable) contracts with no price negotiation are expanding to PCs, mobile, and commodity DRAM, causing the volume of available spot supply in the market to shrink dramatically."
Stockpiling behavior is also emerging. According to market research firm TrendForce, smartphone manufacturers are being extremely cautious about immediately reducing their LTA-based memory purchase volumes this year. TrendForce noted: "Concerned about further price increases and potential supply shortages, they are preemptively prioritizing resource procurement to avoid future allocation restrictions." In other words, despite slowing global smartphone demand and a negative market outlook, companies are stocking up on semiconductors out of fear of supply constraints and additional procurement cost increases ahead.
For smartphone makers, rather than cutting production or trimming contracted volumes right away, the more pressing concern has become whether they can receive memory shipments on time going forward. The worry is that tampering with contracts now could mean failing to secure adequate volume next quarter or next year, or having to re-contract at even higher prices. So even in an unfavorable market, they appear to be maintaining their long-term supply agreements as-is.
Memory chipmakers share this view. During the conference call following its Q4 earnings announcement, SK hynix explained: "In the past, LTAs had loose volume commitments and were highly flexible depending on market conditions. The LTAs being discussed recently are not mere purchase intentions but arrangements where customers and suppliers firmly commit volumes to each other." This implies that from the supplier's perspective, demand visibility has become far more important than before.
An industry insider said: "In this unprecedented memory supply shortage, the power dynamic between buyer and seller is reversing.[...]