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Jukan Why Did Samsung Only Receive 20% of Nvidia's HBM4 Allocation?- Hankyung Samsung Electronics is set to begin mass production and shipment of HBM4 (6th-generation High Bandwidth Memory) to Nvidia this month — an industry first. However, Samsung's share…
tion (1a) DRAM — and go all-in on HBM4.

Prices for high-margin commodity DRAM used in servers, mobile devices, and PCs are surging. According to global investment bank Goldman Sachs, commodity DRAM prices this year are around $1.25 per gigabit (Gb), or about $10 per gigabyte (GB; 1 GB = 8 Gb). This is not far from HBM3E (5th-generation HBM) 12-layer products, the current mainstream in the HBM market. Since commodity DRAM does not require the cutting-edge packaging that HBM does, its profitability (margin) is reportedly incomparably higher than HBM.

For Samsung, which holds a production capacity advantage of over 1.2x compared to competitors in DRAM, a strategy of proving its technological recovery with the title of "first-ever HBM4 shipment to Nvidia" while focusing on the more profitable commodity DRAM business was deemed the rational choice.

Nvidia Also Needs SK hynix

From Nvidia's perspective, Samsung's strong showing is welcome news, but the company may have judged that allocating a larger share to SK hynix — a long-time partner it has worked closely with — is the more "stable" option. SK hynix is reportedly making progress in the qual testing process. For Nvidia, which has committed to deploying large volumes of HBM4 in its new AI accelerator Vera Rubin in the second half of the year, the stable supply from SK hynix — which has the largest HBM production capacity — is of paramount importance.

That said, future variables do exist. If a particular supplier's HBM4 fails to deliver adequate performance, Nvidia simply cannot accept the products. There is precedent: last year, when Samsung repeatedly failed Nvidia's HBM3E 12-layer qual test, the shares allocated to SK hynix and Micron increased. More recently, reports have emerged that Micron is experiencing difficulties with its HBM4 shipments to Nvidia, leading to projections that Samsung's share could rise to as high as 30%.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
What's up with 45 HK? https://t.co/Au3RWVEXtl
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Brady Long
Great ad. The irony is if GenSpark existed then Ferris Bueller’s Day Off might not have ever been made.

The Monday after the Super Bowl should be a national holiday.

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Jukan
RT @MarkosAAIG: Good post by @jukan05 . Not much to add here. Good to see that Micron also has its share in HBM4. Strengthens NVIDIA’s multi-sourcing strategy to the fullest.

these days there are a lot of headlines being thrown around and we need to see the final confirmation first on what’s exact marketshare and what’s essentially possible within capacity and yields as keypoints.

Having SK hynix with the biggest market share is really obvious because of the capacity and the relationship they have built through the past years with NVIDIA.

Personally, I think that Samsung is the best wildcard bet here, although I own all three of them, because of their heavy capacity capex and their aggressive move on technology with the 1c DRAM. But again, that also needs to be proven first.

It’s going to be an interesting next few years to see what each player can deliver on yield, technological edge, and of course capacity. Those three things are the essence of what drives market share for the three big HBM players.
And of course, as I mentioned a few times, NVIDIA still prefers SK hynix because of their long-standing relationship and their capacity. But in an ideal end-market situation, they want that balanced so they remain in control over the platform and multi-source as much as possible to keep everything competitive and in their control.

Exciting times!

$NVDA
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Why Did Samsung Only Receive 20% of Nvidia's HBM4 Allocation?- Hankyung

Samsung Electronics is set to begin mass production and shipment of HBM4 (6th-generation High Bandwidth Memory) to Nvidia this month — an industry first. However, Samsung's share of Nvidia's total HBM4 demand is reportedly only in the "mid-20%" range. Samsung's HBM4 boasts the industry's highest performance (operating speed of 11.7 gigabits per second) and was the first to pass the quality (qual) test. So why is Samsung's projected share of Nvidia's allocation still behind SK hynix (mid-50% range), which is still undergoing its final qual test? We sought to answer this question that has been growing in the market recently.

According to semiconductor industry sources on the 9th, Nvidia tentatively allocated HBM4 volumes to Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron in December of last year — SK hynix at mid-50%, Samsung at mid-20%, and Micron at around 20%. There is a reason Nvidia allocated volumes before qual tests were even completed: since HBM production takes "more than six months," volumes must be assigned to suppliers in advance to ensure stable production of Nvidia's new AI accelerator, Vera Rubin, equipped with HBM4, in the second half of this year. The allocations reportedly took into account years of transaction history with HBM suppliers, each company's HBM4 production capacity, and the likelihood of passing qual tests.

Satisfied with Proving HBM4 Technical Prowess… Samsung's Profitability Maximization Strategy

Samsung's 20%-range share has drawn "disappointing" assessments. But there are reasons behind it. First, there is Samsung's own strategy. Samsung poured everything into proving its competitiveness in the HBM4 market, which is ramping up this year — essentially an "all-in on technology" strategy. This is exemplified by the use of 4nm foundry technology for the base die (the "brain" of HBM4) and 10nm 6th-generation (1c) DRAM for the core die (the basic building block).

While the 4nm base die is not the most cutting-edge like 2nm, it still belongs to the advanced foundry tier. And 1c DRAM is currently the most advanced DRAM product available. Compared to a competitor using an older 12nm foundry process with 10nm 5th-generation (1b) DRAM, Samsung's HBM4 inevitably has higher production costs.

Yield is another factor. While there have been recent reports in the semiconductor industry that yields for HBM4's 1c DRAM have improved significantly, they still fall short of a competitor's 1b DRAM, which has achieved higher process maturity. Depending on contract terms with cu[...]
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Jukan RT @MarkosAAIG: Good post by @jukan05 . Not much to add here. Good to see that Micron also has its share in HBM4. Strengthens NVIDIA’s multi-sourcing strategy to the fullest. these days there are a lot of headlines being thrown around and we need to…
stomers (wafer-level delivery vs. individual chip-level delivery), the impact varies, but generally, lower yields mean lower profitability.

Production capacity is also still insufficient. The production capacity for 1c DRAM — the fundamental building block of HBM4 — is at approximately 70,000 wafers per month, which is about 10% of Samsung's total DRAM capacity. Although the company has recently begun expanding its Pyeongtaek Plant 4, production capacity won't increase to around 190,000 wafers until a year from now. Manufacturing HBM4 also requires "cutting-edge packaging" that makes the GPU and HBM function as a single chip. This process further reduces the number of surviving chips. From Samsung's perspective, even if it wanted to produce more HBM4, it simply cannot at this point.

Commodity DRAM Prices Have Risen to HBM3E Levels… Even Higher Profitability

Demand remains strong for HBM3E 12-layer products, which will serve as the market's mainstream through the first half of this year. Samsung passed Nvidia's HBM3E 12-layer qual test around September–October of last year, but actual shipment volumes are reportedly not large. Instead, Samsung is reportedly receiving a flood of orders for "HBM3E 12-layer" from Broadcom, which co-designs Google's AI accelerator TPU, among others. For Samsung, there is little incentive to cut production capacity for HBM3E 12-layer — which uses 10nm 4th-generation (1a) DRAM — and go all-in on HBM4.

Prices for high-margin commodity DRAM used in servers, mobile devices, and PCs are surging. According to global investment bank Goldman Sachs, commodity DRAM prices this year are around $1.25 per gigabit (Gb), or about $10 per gigabyte (GB; 1 GB = 8 Gb). This is not far from HBM3E (5th-generation HBM) 12-layer products, the current mainstream in the HBM market. Since commodity DRAM does not require the cutting-edge packaging that HBM does, its profitability (margin) is reportedly incomparably higher than HBM.

For Samsung, which holds a production capacity advantage of over 1.2x compared to competitors in DRAM, a strategy of proving its technological recovery with the title of "first-ever HBM4 shipment to Nvidia" while focusing on the more profitable commodity DRAM business was deemed the rational choice.

Nvidia Also Needs SK hynix

From Nvidia's perspective, Samsung's strong showing is welcome news, but the company may have judged that allocating a larger share to SK hynix — a long-time partner it has worked closely with — is the more "stable" option. SK hynix is reportedly making progress in the qual testing process. For Nvidia, which has committed to deploying large volumes of HBM4 in its new AI accelerator Vera Rubin in the second half of the year, the stable supply from SK hynix — which has the largest HBM production capacity — is of paramount importance.

That said, future variables do exist. If a particular supplier's HBM4 fails to deliver adequate performance, Nvidia simply cannot accept the products. There is precedent: last year, when Samsung repeatedly failed Nvidia's HBM3E 12-layer qual test, the shares allocated to SK hynix and Micron increased. More recently, reports have emerged that Micron is experiencing difficulties with its HBM4 shipments to Nvidia, leading to projections that Samsung's share could rise to as high as 30%. - Jukan tweet
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Great ad. The irony is if Genspark existed then Ferris Bueller’s Day Off might not have ever been made.

The Monday after the Super Bowl should be a national holiday.

We made a Super Bowl ad about it. Featuring Matthew Broderick and an AI that can actually autopilot your work.

Airing today during the game! 🏈 https://t.co/BbZfDXVx5R
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The Transcript
RT @TheTranscript_: $ARM CEO: MediaTek expects 15% smartphone unit decline due to memory shortages

"that's pretty consistent with what we've heard from other smartphone and handset providers around what they think the memory supply chain constraints could provide." https://t.co/QBtxPwTSkT
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Preparation today = profits tomorrow.
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We charted $IBRX, $NAAS, $TNMG, $NEWT, $PAA, and $PEN collaboratively.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
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Jukan
Goldman Sachs put out a really excellent report. I especially liked how they laid out, with solid modeling, the argument that even in an extreme scenario where demand destruction hits smartphones and PCs, server demand would absorb the impact.

That said… what surprised me was that they downgraded Micron with a $235 price target. They basically said a large part of the positives is already priced in, which I found quite unexpected.

$MU
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @capitalemployed: Great accounts to follow for Japanese small cap ideas, with stocks they've recently mentioned... 🇯🇵

@japan_cap 👇

- 7399.T Nanshin – Downward revision but undervalued at 0.34x P/B.
- 4624.T Isamu Paint – Strong Q3 progress, 0.44x P/B.
- 3773.T Advance Media – Q3 OP up 70.6% QoQ.
- 4224.T Lonseal – 42.1% YoY OP growth, 0.47x P/B.

@JapanDeepValue1 👇

- 2962.T – Micro cap with advanced TGV drilling tech, $30M market cap.

- 4704.T Trend Micro – Cheap at 8x EV/EBITDA, 30% net cash, potential takeout.

@JCVpartners 👇

- 7732.T Topcon – Privatization speculation.
- 7201.T Nissan – PB ratio lower than TEPCO's.
- 9501.T TEPCO) – Compared to Nissan on valuation.
- 7974.T Nintendo – Switch 2 speculation.
- 3382.T Seven & i – Resisting takeover, targeting sales double.

@japan_guru_x 👇

- 9861.T Yoshinoya – Ramen shop roll-up play.
- 3197.T Skylark – Impacted by ingredient inflation.
- 5401.T Nippon Steel – Potential divestment of Osaka Steel.
- 5449.T Osaka Steel – As part of Nippon Steel divestment.

@TeddyOkuyama 👇

- 4320.T CE Holdings – SaaS in hospital EMR, 5x EV/EBIT.

- 3733.T Software Service – Defensive compounder in EMR.

- 5621.T Human Technologies – Temp staffing, price-sensitive SMB focus.

- 5138.T Rebase – Space rental platform with strong margins.

@altaycapital 👇

- 4624.T Isamu Paint : Highlighted conservative management - Q3 results ahead of guidance but no revision (implying unlikely Q4 loss given historical consistency).

- 7826.T Furuya Metal : Massive forecast raise (revenue +37.5%, OP +65%, net +83%). Niche precious-metals leader for electronics/data centers.

- 9312.T (Keihin): Earnings revision up + dividend hike (¥80 → ¥100). Still cheap despite gains (net cash, warehouse assets undervalued).

- 2612.T (Kadoya): New higher payout ratio/dividend policy (potential 30%+ boost).

- 7999.T (Mutoh Holdings): Tender offer at 157% premium (¥2,980 → ¥7,626). Typical deep value net-net with massive net cash; strategic acquisition.

@hiroki1379 👇

- 7192.T (Mortgage Service Japan): Up 15% on guidance revision and dividend hike; current yield 4.8%, PER 8x. Still cheap amid solid performance in housing finance and insurance.

- 5187.T (Create Medic): Jan 2026 dividend revision (37→45 yen), yield 4.1%; good returns including 2.5% share buyback last year.

- 5304.T (SEC Carbon): Net-net with 4%+ dividend; super-niche in carbon products, positive macro for turnaround.

Give all these guys a follow.
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Brady Long
RT @thisguyknowsai: Non-technical CEO when CTO says “I think what we’re building is too complex for vibecoding. But I got it.” https://t.co/Td8rqAGjjn
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