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The Few Bets That Matter
I did not have $ALAB up 19% on my bingo card today.
Very glad I concentrated my portfolio and accumulated on the weekly 50 at $145. Price action is key, as usual. Portfolio up more than 10% today and flat YTD, a pretty good performance considering the state of FinX.
More to come on Tuesday after earnings. With CapEx announcements, AI hardware companies should continue to print money, compute optimizer even more than others.
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I did not have $ALAB up 19% on my bingo card today.
Very glad I concentrated my portfolio and accumulated on the weekly 50 at $145. Price action is key, as usual. Portfolio up more than 10% today and flat YTD, a pretty good performance considering the state of FinX.
More to come on Tuesday after earnings. With CapEx announcements, AI hardware companies should continue to print money, compute optimizer even more than others.
The only tech stocks I still own are $ALAB and $BABA, and I expect both to outperform.
$ALAB generates real cash today.
As long as CapEx keeps rising - and $AMZN just confirmed it isn’t slowing after Meta and Google did the same, semis will keep printing.
Unlike hyperscalers, semis are positive FCF. They don’t depend on future ROI; they monetize real spending happening now.
With hyperscalers guiding CapEx ~50% above expectations, that cash flows directly to semis.
The market wants free cash flow.
They have it.
$BABA is the only hyperscaler holding up while markets fall. Likely because.
1. Ownership is largely non-US → US tech pressure doesn’t apply
2. China has a different economic and financial regime and situation
3. Valuation is incomparable to US hyperscalers, with cash-generating assets outside tech
Both names sit in very specific situations. As the market gets picky, performance will come from singular assets, not sectors.
This isn’t the end of AI.
It’s the start of the stock-picking era. tweet
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Brady Long
RT @bigaiguy: This is revolutionizing AI assistance.
It makes it truly seamless and ALWAYS ON.
As someone juggling daily tasks, this caught my eye immediately. It's proactive, on 24/7 and handles work while you rest. And it integrates effortlessly into WhatsApp, Telegram, or Discord.
Skywork AI has eliminated the usual barriers: no self-hosting, no security issues, just instant access for subscribers. This launch seems to tie into Skywork 2.0, which already offers unlimited usage and a new desktop app.
If you're already a member you can claim the beta at https://t.co/BnSbI8fAE5. Perfect timing with the Super Bowl. Instead of doing chores now you can eat wings and watch the game.
By the way - What sets it apart? It's proactive, anticipating your needs from interactions and your knowledge base to automate tasks like scheduling, research, or reminders.
- Chatting feels natural, like texting a friend, without switching apps.
- Security is key by handling hosting, it minimizes risks like data breaches, ideal in our crazy world.
For everyday wins, imagine professionals getting overnight email summaries or market insights. Freelancers could automate client follow-ups, while personally, it manages travel plans or fitness goals.
Beta access means you can influence its growth through feedback.
I've tried similar tools, but SkyBot's frictionless setup is the best. If you're subscribed, grab it now and let it do the heavy lifting.
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RT @bigaiguy: This is revolutionizing AI assistance.
It makes it truly seamless and ALWAYS ON.
As someone juggling daily tasks, this caught my eye immediately. It's proactive, on 24/7 and handles work while you rest. And it integrates effortlessly into WhatsApp, Telegram, or Discord.
Skywork AI has eliminated the usual barriers: no self-hosting, no security issues, just instant access for subscribers. This launch seems to tie into Skywork 2.0, which already offers unlimited usage and a new desktop app.
If you're already a member you can claim the beta at https://t.co/BnSbI8fAE5. Perfect timing with the Super Bowl. Instead of doing chores now you can eat wings and watch the game.
By the way - What sets it apart? It's proactive, anticipating your needs from interactions and your knowledge base to automate tasks like scheduling, research, or reminders.
- Chatting feels natural, like texting a friend, without switching apps.
- Security is key by handling hosting, it minimizes risks like data breaches, ideal in our crazy world.
For everyday wins, imagine professionals getting overnight email summaries or market insights. Freelancers could automate client follow-ups, while personally, it manages travel plans or fitness goals.
Beta access means you can influence its growth through feedback.
I've tried similar tools, but SkyBot's frictionless setup is the best. If you're subscribed, grab it now and let it do the heavy lifting.
Introducing SkyBot: Your 24/7 Proactive AI Works While you Sleep
We've removed the friction of hosting and the worry of security risks. Start chatting with SkyBot on WhatsApp, Telegram, or Discord.
Claim your SkyBot on Skywork and reclaim your Super Bowl weekend! https://t.co/ZcKhZj9oCl tweet
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The Transcript
RT @TheTranscript_: Atlassian CEO: "We had a fantastic Q2. We’re building a bloody great business. I’m convinced AI is great for Atlassian. Others think software is dead. In this environment, it seems that noise swamps signal, nuance gets lost."
$TEAM: -9% AH https://t.co/grps5IlRZc
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RT @TheTranscript_: Atlassian CEO: "We had a fantastic Q2. We’re building a bloody great business. I’m convinced AI is great for Atlassian. Others think software is dead. In this environment, it seems that noise swamps signal, nuance gets lost."
$TEAM: -9% AH https://t.co/grps5IlRZc
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Fiscal.ai
Shares of Philip Morris International are now up 125% since they acquired Zyn's parent company, Swedish Match.
$PM https://t.co/GZ61FqILVh
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Shares of Philip Morris International are now up 125% since they acquired Zyn's parent company, Swedish Match.
$PM https://t.co/GZ61FqILVh
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The Few Bets That Matter
$HIMS to $100
Or so they said
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$HIMS to $100
Or so they said
BREAKING: FDA announces intent to restrict non-FDA-approved compounded GLP-1 drugs, directly names Hims & Hers $HIMS
FDA says it will use "all available compliance and enforcement tools," including seizure and injunction against companies marketing unapproved compounded GLP-1 products. tweet
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬 𝐇𝐨𝐡𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐲𝐩𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐧:
“We have a long list of companies we don’t invest in… banks, commodity businesses, most manufacturing industries, fossil fuels, utilities, airlines, wireless telecom, advertising agencies… Why? Because they’re competitive. And the most important thing I’ve learned in investing is that investors underestimate the forces of competition and disruption.”
___
𝘐𝘯𝘥𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘏𝘰𝘩𝘯 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘷𝘰𝘪𝘥𝘴:
• Banks
• Commodity businesses / manufacturing
• Insurance
• Tobacco
• Fossil fuels
• Utilities
• Airlines
• Wireless telecom
• Advertising agencies
• Most traditional manufacturing
___
Hohn’s point isn’t that money can’t be made in these areas — plenty of investors have done well in some of them.
The deeper lesson:
𝙄𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙨 𝙢𝙪𝙘𝙝 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙤𝙬𝙣 𝙖𝙨 𝙞𝙩 𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙤𝙬𝙣.
Highly competitive industries tend to:
• Erode returns on capital
• Compress margins over time
• Require constant reinvestment
Contrast that with businesses that have:
• Pricing power
• High switching costs
• Network effects
• Structural barriers to entry
Those are the environments where 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 compounding becomes far more predictable.
___
Another subtle takeaway:
Most investors focus heavily on upside narratives.
Great investors spend just as much time thinking about downside structures.
___
Source: In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management (05/14/2025)
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RT @DimitryNakhla: 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬 𝐇𝐨𝐡𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐲𝐩𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐧:
“We have a long list of companies we don’t invest in… banks, commodity businesses, most manufacturing industries, fossil fuels, utilities, airlines, wireless telecom, advertising agencies… Why? Because they’re competitive. And the most important thing I’ve learned in investing is that investors underestimate the forces of competition and disruption.”
___
𝘐𝘯𝘥𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘏𝘰𝘩𝘯 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘷𝘰𝘪𝘥𝘴:
• Banks
• Commodity businesses / manufacturing
• Insurance
• Tobacco
• Fossil fuels
• Utilities
• Airlines
• Wireless telecom
• Advertising agencies
• Most traditional manufacturing
___
Hohn’s point isn’t that money can’t be made in these areas — plenty of investors have done well in some of them.
The deeper lesson:
𝙄𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙨 𝙢𝙪𝙘𝙝 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙤𝙬𝙣 𝙖𝙨 𝙞𝙩 𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙤𝙬𝙣.
Highly competitive industries tend to:
• Erode returns on capital
• Compress margins over time
• Require constant reinvestment
Contrast that with businesses that have:
• Pricing power
• High switching costs
• Network effects
• Structural barriers to entry
Those are the environments where 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 compounding becomes far more predictable.
___
Another subtle takeaway:
Most investors focus heavily on upside narratives.
Great investors spend just as much time thinking about downside structures.
___
Source: In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management (05/14/2025)
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Brady Long
RT @thisguyknowsai: 🚨BREAKING: Google just dropped another hit!
It's called PaperBanana and it generates publication-ready academic illustrations from just your methodology text.
No Figma. No manual design. No illustration skills needed.
Here's how it works:
A team of AI agents runs behind the scenes
→ One finds good diagram examples
→ One plans the structure
→ One styles the layout
→ One generates the image
→ One critiques and improves it
Here's the wildest part:
Random reference examples work nearly as well as perfectly matched ones. What matters is showing the model what good diagrams look like, not finding the topically perfect reference.
In blind evaluations, humans preferred PaperBanana outputs 75% of the time.
This is the recursion we've been waiting for AI systems that can fully document themselves visually.
Waitlist’s open, Link in the first comment.
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RT @thisguyknowsai: 🚨BREAKING: Google just dropped another hit!
It's called PaperBanana and it generates publication-ready academic illustrations from just your methodology text.
No Figma. No manual design. No illustration skills needed.
Here's how it works:
A team of AI agents runs behind the scenes
→ One finds good diagram examples
→ One plans the structure
→ One styles the layout
→ One generates the image
→ One critiques and improves it
Here's the wildest part:
Random reference examples work nearly as well as perfectly matched ones. What matters is showing the model what good diagrams look like, not finding the topically perfect reference.
In blind evaluations, humans preferred PaperBanana outputs 75% of the time.
This is the recursion we've been waiting for AI systems that can fully document themselves visually.
Waitlist’s open, Link in the first comment.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @souzaj99: Had some exchanges with IAMX China Board and been doing some historical digging on $IMAX and $1970.HK $1970 IMAX China... @MikeFritzell @ragingbullcap
The table below summarises dividends, profits and PRC cash movements over time. https://t.co/Oc1dToJYne
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RT @souzaj99: Had some exchanges with IAMX China Board and been doing some historical digging on $IMAX and $1970.HK $1970 IMAX China... @MikeFritzell @ragingbullcap
The table below summarises dividends, profits and PRC cash movements over time. https://t.co/Oc1dToJYne
Since the failed 2023 take-private attempt, IMAX China $1970.HK has delivered higher margins, higher EBITDA, and a larger share of $IMAX group profits.
It now represents 40%+ of group EBITDA, its cash flow is booming, yet trades at ~4× EBITDA.
@ragingbullcap @MikeFritzell https://t.co/xx0Mr8Cqw6 tweet
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Below is a comparison of 20 stocks & their lowest weekly RSI over the past 10 years versus their current RSI:
Stock | Lowest RSI (10Y) | Current RSI
1. $CRWD 31 | 34
2. $FICO 27 | 34
3. $SPGI 30 | 33
4. $AXON 30 | 31
5. $BMI 28 | 31
6. $QCOM 34 | 30
7. $RACE 30 | 30
8. $CRM 29 | 31
9. $MSFT 29 | 29
10. $ORCL 29 | 29
11. $ADSK 28 | 29
12. $ADBE 28 | 28
13. $VEEV 27 | 27
14. $INTU 26 | 26
15. $NFLX 15 | 26
16. $NOW 21 | 21
17. $CSU 20 | 20
18. $VRSK 19 | 19
19. $TYL 17 | 17
20. $ROP 14 | 14
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*RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures how overbought or oversold a stock is based on recent price momentum.
**Photo below is the $IGV Software ETF
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Below is a comparison of 20 stocks & their lowest weekly RSI over the past 10 years versus their current RSI:
Stock | Lowest RSI (10Y) | Current RSI
1. $CRWD 31 | 34
2. $FICO 27 | 34
3. $SPGI 30 | 33
4. $AXON 30 | 31
5. $BMI 28 | 31
6. $QCOM 34 | 30
7. $RACE 30 | 30
8. $CRM 29 | 31
9. $MSFT 29 | 29
10. $ORCL 29 | 29
11. $ADSK 28 | 29
12. $ADBE 28 | 28
13. $VEEV 27 | 27
14. $INTU 26 | 26
15. $NFLX 15 | 26
16. $NOW 21 | 21
17. $CSU 20 | 20
18. $VRSK 19 | 19
19. $TYL 17 | 17
20. $ROP 14 | 14
___
*RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures how overbought or oversold a stock is based on recent price momentum.
**Photo below is the $IGV Software ETF
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