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The Few Bets That Matter
Don't mistake overexposure to beta for a crash.
The $SPY is only down 2.23% from its ATH.
That's what happens when we get used to call 20x sales great opportunities.
Time to get grounded.
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Don't mistake overexposure to beta for a crash.
The $SPY is only down 2.23% from its ATH.
That's what happens when we get used to call 20x sales great opportunities.
Time to get grounded.
https://t.co/45bAL41Db2 - The Few Bets That Mattertweet
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: One of the more interesting things about $FICO is that, as long-term shareholders, a lower short-term stock price can be beneficial in the long-run.
How?
Because $FICO is a cannibal.
Shares outstanding down ~22% over the last 10 years.
In the last 12 months alone, $FICO spent ~$1.54B on buybacks.
That reduced share count by roughly 0.16M shares (160K).
Now letโs look at why price matters:
Assume $FICO allocates another $1.54B to repurchases.
___
๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐ข๐จ ๐:
Market cap = $31.65B
$1.54B / $31.65B โ 4.86% of the company โ ๐.๐๐% ๐๐จ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐
๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐ข๐จ ๐:
Market cap = ~$47.47B
$1.54B / $47.47B โ 3.24% of the company โ ๐.๐๐% ๐๐จ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐
___
Same dollars. Different outcome.
๐๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ณ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ช๐ค๐ฆ, ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ด๐ฉ๐ช๐ฑ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ค๐ฉ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ๐ข๐ด๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ญ๐ข๐ณ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ต๐ช๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด โ ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ง๐ถ๐ต๐ถ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ๐ด ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ณ ๐ข๐ค๐ค๐ณ๐ถ๐ฆ๐ด ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ข๐ช๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ด๐ฉ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ด.
๐๐๐๐จ ๐๐จ ๐ฌ๐๐ฎ ๐๐ค๐ง ๐๐๐๐-๐ฆ๐ช๐๐ก๐๐ฉ๐ฎ ๐๐๐ฃ๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ก๐จ, ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐๐ค๐๐จ ๐ค๐ ๐ฅ๐ง๐๐๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ ๐ฃ๐๐จ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ช๐๐๐ฉ๐ก๐ฎ ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ฃ๐๐ ๐ก๐ค๐ฃ๐-๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ข ๐๐ค๐ข๐ฅ๐ค๐ช๐ฃ๐๐๐ฃ๐.
๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฃ๐ข๐ค๐ฌ๐ด ๐ฅ๐ฐ๐ฏโ๐ต ๐ซ๐ถ๐ด๐ต ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ต๐ถ๐ณ๐ฏ ๐ค๐ข๐ฑ๐ช๐ต๐ข๐ญ. ๐๐ฉ๐ฆ๐บ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ข๐ญ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ค๐ข๐ต๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ด๐ฉ๐ช๐ฑ ๐ต๐ฐ๐ธ๐ข๐ณ๐ฅ ๐ฑ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ด๐ฉ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ด โ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ด๐ต ๐ฆ๐ง๐ง๐ฆ๐ค๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ๐ญ๐บ ๐ธ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ช๐ค๐ฆ๐ด ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ด๐ฆ๐ฅ.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: One of the more interesting things about $FICO is that, as long-term shareholders, a lower short-term stock price can be beneficial in the long-run.
How?
Because $FICO is a cannibal.
Shares outstanding down ~22% over the last 10 years.
In the last 12 months alone, $FICO spent ~$1.54B on buybacks.
That reduced share count by roughly 0.16M shares (160K).
Now letโs look at why price matters:
Assume $FICO allocates another $1.54B to repurchases.
___
๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐ข๐จ ๐:
Market cap = $31.65B
$1.54B / $31.65B โ 4.86% of the company โ ๐.๐๐% ๐๐จ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐
๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐ข๐จ ๐:
Market cap = ~$47.47B
$1.54B / $47.47B โ 3.24% of the company โ ๐.๐๐% ๐๐จ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐
___
Same dollars. Different outcome.
๐๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ณ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ช๐ค๐ฆ, ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ด๐ฉ๐ช๐ฑ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ค๐ฉ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ๐ข๐ด๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ญ๐ข๐ณ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ต๐ช๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด โ ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ง๐ถ๐ต๐ถ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ๐ด ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ณ ๐ข๐ค๐ค๐ณ๐ถ๐ฆ๐ด ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ข๐ช๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ด๐ฉ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ด.
๐๐๐๐จ ๐๐จ ๐ฌ๐๐ฎ ๐๐ค๐ง ๐๐๐๐-๐ฆ๐ช๐๐ก๐๐ฉ๐ฎ ๐๐๐ฃ๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ก๐จ, ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐๐ค๐๐จ ๐ค๐ ๐ฅ๐ง๐๐๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ ๐ฃ๐๐จ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ช๐๐๐ฉ๐ก๐ฎ ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ฃ๐๐ ๐ก๐ค๐ฃ๐-๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ข ๐๐ค๐ข๐ฅ๐ค๐ช๐ฃ๐๐๐ฃ๐.
๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฃ๐ข๐ค๐ฌ๐ด ๐ฅ๐ฐ๐ฏโ๐ต ๐ซ๐ถ๐ด๐ต ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ต๐ถ๐ณ๐ฏ ๐ค๐ข๐ฑ๐ช๐ต๐ข๐ญ. ๐๐ฉ๐ฆ๐บ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ข๐ญ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ค๐ข๐ต๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ด๐ฉ๐ช๐ฑ ๐ต๐ฐ๐ธ๐ข๐ณ๐ฅ ๐ฑ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ด๐ฉ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ด โ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ด๐ต ๐ฆ๐ง๐ง๐ฆ๐ค๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ๐ญ๐บ ๐ธ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ช๐ค๐ฆ๐ด ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ด๐ฆ๐ฅ.
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The Transcript
$UBER CEO @dkhos used the prepared remarks in today's earnings call to handle some misconceptions on Autonomous Vehicles
โMyth: AV growth will be zero-sum.
Reality: AVs add supply and expand the ridesharing market.
โMyth: San Francisco trends apply everywhere.
Reality: SF is an outlier & most cities have very different demand and regulatory dynamics.
โMyth: AV-only fleets can achieve high utilization at scale.
Reality: Hybrid networks of AVs and human drivers deliver higher utilization, lower ETAs, and better reliability.
โMyth: AVs only need a few large cities to capture most profits.
Reality: Much of U.S. trip volume and profits sit outside top metros and will remain human-led for years.
โMyth: AVs will soon handle all trips.
Reality: Edge cases, weather, infrastructure, and regulation still limit universal AV coverage.
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$UBER CEO @dkhos used the prepared remarks in today's earnings call to handle some misconceptions on Autonomous Vehicles
โMyth: AV growth will be zero-sum.
Reality: AVs add supply and expand the ridesharing market.
โMyth: San Francisco trends apply everywhere.
Reality: SF is an outlier & most cities have very different demand and regulatory dynamics.
โMyth: AV-only fleets can achieve high utilization at scale.
Reality: Hybrid networks of AVs and human drivers deliver higher utilization, lower ETAs, and better reliability.
โMyth: AVs only need a few large cities to capture most profits.
Reality: Much of U.S. trip volume and profits sit outside top metros and will remain human-led for years.
โMyth: AVs will soon handle all trips.
Reality: Edge cases, weather, infrastructure, and regulation still limit universal AV coverage.
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Clark Square Capital
Market finally starting to care about $GRVY
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Market finally starting to care about $GRVY
Been a good high-sharpe move on $GRVY so far which is more meaningful amid the elevated vol elsewhere. But this is just the beginning. Fair value floor is $120 at 6x P/E ex-cash. https://t.co/UmVi9uR71q - AuxReignotstweet
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App Economy Insights
$UBER Uber Q4 FY25:
โข Gross bookings +22% Y/Y to $54.1B.
โข Revenue +20% Y/Y to $14.4B ($50M beat).
โข Adj. EBITDA +35% Y/Y to $2.5B.
Q1 FY26 guidance:
โข Gross bookings +19% Y/Y fxn to ~$53B.
โข Adj. EBITDA +31% to ~$2.4B. https://t.co/1ccvv95gkU
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$UBER Uber Q4 FY25:
โข Gross bookings +22% Y/Y to $54.1B.
โข Revenue +20% Y/Y to $14.4B ($50M beat).
โข Adj. EBITDA +35% Y/Y to $2.5B.
Q1 FY26 guidance:
โข Gross bookings +19% Y/Y fxn to ~$53B.
โข Adj. EBITDA +31% to ~$2.4B. https://t.co/1ccvv95gkU
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Moon Dev
RT @carlosml: @MoonDevOnYT A 22,610% return in an hour? Cracker's making hand traders look like they're using abacuses
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RT @carlosml: @MoonDevOnYT A 22,610% return in an hour? Cracker's making hand traders look like they're using abacuses
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