The Few Bets That Matter
If you are shocked by this $PYPL print... You haven't been paying any attention.

You fell in love with your bias.

You shouldn't have been expecting anything else.

Undervalued is just another word to fool ourselves. And buybacks were never a bull case.
https://t.co/kH8PPQWPw2 https://t.co/c6n4qqs2gd

The stocks I wouldn't be buying just yet... And why.

$NFLX
$ADBE
$DUOL
$MELI
$UBER
$META
$PYPL
$HIMS

Investing isn’t playing Pokémon; the goal isn’t to catch them all. It is to catch the great ones, the ones that can make a difference. - The Few Bets That Matter
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The Transcript
🎬 Disney Succession:

— Josh D’Amaro named CEO of Disney Company, effective March 18, 2026, succeeding Bob Iger.
— Dana Walden appointed President and Chief Creative Officer, reporting to D’Amaro, in a newly created role.

$DIS: +1% Pre-Market https://t.co/mQNUPRTQ5G
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
There have been two very different — and 𝘴𝘦𝘦𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 — camps in Google over the last couple of years.

𝐎𝐧𝐞 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩 of world-class investors stepped in when shares traded ~15x earnings, amid regulatory pressure, competitive fears, and a narrative that Google would be an AI laggard.

𝐀𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩 began buying after Google’s AI breakout — once the company was clearly demonstrating leadership in models, infrastructure, and real-world deployment.

𝙄𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙡𝙮, 𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙮 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙛𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩 𝙘𝙖𝙢𝙥 𝙝𝙖𝙫𝙚 𝙩𝙧𝙞𝙢𝙢𝙚𝙙 𝙤𝙧 𝙨𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙚𝙭𝙞𝙩𝙚𝙙, 𝙖𝙨 𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙮 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙨𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙙 𝙘𝙖𝙢𝙥 𝙝𝙖𝙫𝙚 𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙙.

And I think 𝘣𝘰𝘵𝘩 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘣𝘦 𝘳𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩 𝘸𝘢𝘴 𝘳𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬/𝘳𝘦𝘸𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘸𝘢𝘴 𝘦𝘹𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘴𝘺𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤.

Bad news was abundant. Expectations were depressed. The margin of safety was wide.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘣𝘦 𝘳𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘤𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘳.

Google is proving itself as a serious AI leader, regulatory fears have softened, and the company’s long-term growth runway looks larger than it did two years ago.

Same company.

Different entry points.

Different sources of edge.

𝘌𝘢𝘳𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘳, Google was a multiple + sentiment mean-reversion opportunity.

𝘛𝘰𝘥𝘢𝘺, it’s more of a premium business compounding opportunity — where returns depend on sustained execution, not multiple expansion.

𝙄𝙣 𝙗𝙤𝙩𝙝 𝙘𝙖𝙨𝙚𝙨, 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙧𝙡𝙮𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙗𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙚𝙛 𝙞𝙨 𝙨𝙞𝙢𝙞𝙡𝙖𝙧:

𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐠𝐥𝐞’𝐬 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐨𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐢𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐝 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠.

I personally think Google is still early in its AI story. The applications, monetization paths, and ecosystem effects are just beginning to show themselves.

Not every great investment looks the same.

𝘚𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦𝘴 the edge is buying when expectations collapse.

𝘚𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦𝘴 the edge is recognizing that the future is larger than consensus.

Different paths.

Different expressions of the same long-term thesis.

$GOOGL $GOOGL
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: ChatGPT's custom instructions feature is insanely powerful.

But 99% of people write garbage instructions.

I tested 200+ custom instruction sets.

These 5 patterns increased output quality by 3.4x: https://t.co/xVEOxr2Gm8
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The Transcript
This is all you need for a complete coverage of the Q4 25 earnings season

Link: https://t.co/pgEoID6dIq https://t.co/Qp9DRPf2p4
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The Few Bets That Matter
On the bright side, $PYPL is even cheaper now.

Buybacks & all. https://t.co/4V4J0aCRrr
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Javier Blas
RT @ira_joseph: Finally a new deal out of Qatar, as Japan looks to replace older deals set to expire. The 3 MTPA deal replaces a smaller 0.7 MTPA deal with JERA that is expiring in 2028. JERA has 3.8 MTPA of contracts expiring by 2030; Japan has 20 MTPA expiring overall by then. @ColumbiaUEnergy

QatarEnergy signs 27-year LNG supply agreement with Japan's Jera https://t.co/cGlHBMhT0I - LNG Global
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @irbezek: @moneyandmore72 Imagine being able to invest in small-caps anywhere around the globe and one of your top 10 ideas is Rollins, a pest control at 55x earnings for 10% annualized growth.
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Wasteland Capital
All the large cap picks are #1 in their sector… yet another year.

$MU #1 Semiconductor stock YTD
$GOOG #1 Mag 7 YTD
$BABA #1 China Tech large cap YTD

Statistically, this is in the realm of the impossible. I am personally amazed.

Pure Alpha, beyond human comprehension. https://t.co/yJGBaygV18

The large caps now at +211%, up from +160% three weeks ago. Big bumps from both $MU (+53% YTD and now +413% total), and $BABA (+19% YTD), while $GOOG is #2 Mag 7 YTD.

This type of returns on mega caps in a bit over a year (with the S&P500 +17-18%) seems like pretty solid Alpha. https://t.co/oYnQeuQ6a9 - Wasteland Capital
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: ChatGPT's custom instructions feature is insanely powerful.

But 99% of people write garbage instructions.

I tested 200+ custom instruction sets.

These 5 patterns increased output quality by 3.4x: https://t.co/xVEOxr2Gm8
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Fiscal.ai
Pepsi has now reported 14 consecutive quarters of volume declines.

Meanwhile, they continue to grow prices.

How long can this continue?

$PEP https://t.co/OXcg4rmR2B
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