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Offshore
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Moon Dev
you missed clawbot
you missed clawbot for trading today
we went deep and built some serious stuff
luckily you can get the full replay
join tomorrows private zoom and get access
join here https://t.co/JbJdIbW2p9
moon dev
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you missed clawbot
you missed clawbot for trading today
we went deep and built some serious stuff
luckily you can get the full replay
join tomorrows private zoom and get access
join here https://t.co/JbJdIbW2p9
moon dev
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Offshore
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @EricBalchunas: Emerging Markets ETFs just destroyed their monthly flow record by 3x. They make up 3% of aum but took in 13% of the cash. About 40% of it went to $IEMG but dozens took in cash. Also it wasn't really at the expense of US or eq or bonds but in addition to it. https://t.co/62IcFNoIg2
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RT @EricBalchunas: Emerging Markets ETFs just destroyed their monthly flow record by 3x. They make up 3% of aum but took in 13% of the cash. About 40% of it went to $IEMG but dozens took in cash. Also it wasn't really at the expense of US or eq or bonds but in addition to it. https://t.co/62IcFNoIg2
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Jukan
SK Hynix Tightens Reins on HBM4 DRAM Mass Production: A Supply Speed War
SK Hynix is accelerating the mass production of 10nm-class 5th generation (1b) DRAM, which will be integrated into 6th generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4). With HBM4 quality tests with NVIDIA nearing completion, this move is analyzed as a rapid response to supply HBM4 for NVIDIA's latest AI accelerator, 'Vera Rubin.' SK Hynix plans to expand production capacity through wafer input for 1b DRAM, expansion of the Cheongju M15x fab, and process conversion at the M16 fab.
According to industry sources on the 3rd, SK Hynix plans to begin the ramp-up for 1b DRAM used in HBM4 as early as this month. This aims to supply not only HBM4 samples requested by NVIDIA but also volume for the Vera Rubin. To meet NVIDIA’s demand, SK Hynix is reportedly securing a new production capacity of 40,000 wafers per month at M15x by the end of the year and is also pursuing process conversion at M16.
The decision to accelerate mass production stems from an internal assessment that SK Hynix has largely met NVIDIA's upgraded performance requirements. While SK Hynix officially announced its HBM4 mass production readiness last September, it is analyzed to have undergone several design changes as NVIDIA raised performance criteria, such as transmission speed. Samsung Electronics stated, "We have met performance requirements without any redesigns from the start," whereas SK Hynix is reported to have experienced delays in meeting those standards due to the design adjustments.
As Samsung Electronics officializes its 'February mass production and supply of HBM4,' a speed war for supply is unfolding. Although this year's HBM4 supply volumes were contracted last year, who supplies the final NVIDIA-compliant HBM4 first serves as a gauge of the technical prowess a company possesses at this moment. Samsung Electronics is asserting technical superiority by using 10nm-class 6th generation (1c) DRAM—one generation ahead of SK Hynix—and applying a 4nm process to the logic die (exceeding SK Hynix and Micron). Consequently, SK Hynix, which has held the top spot, must now prove its competitiveness.
SK Hynix’s strategy appears to focus on securing a business edge over competitors through stable yields. While Samsung may have a performance lead by applying 1c DRAM, SK Hynix might lead in yield. Since HBM4 stacks 12 advanced DRAMs, the yield of a single DRAM is critical. If the DRAM yield falls below 90%, the overall HBM4 yield drops sharply, which directly impacts price competitiveness and the profitability of the HBM business.
An industry official noted, "Considering the launch schedule of NVIDIA's next-generation AI accelerators, HBM4 supply must begin in earnest from February. Since Samsung has expressed confidence in shipping this month, SK Hynix is also ramping up mass production to respond to NVIDIA's requests. This strategy aims to dispel market concerns regarding performance through rapid supply and to defend its #1 position in HBM by proving business viability."
tweet
SK Hynix Tightens Reins on HBM4 DRAM Mass Production: A Supply Speed War
SK Hynix is accelerating the mass production of 10nm-class 5th generation (1b) DRAM, which will be integrated into 6th generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4). With HBM4 quality tests with NVIDIA nearing completion, this move is analyzed as a rapid response to supply HBM4 for NVIDIA's latest AI accelerator, 'Vera Rubin.' SK Hynix plans to expand production capacity through wafer input for 1b DRAM, expansion of the Cheongju M15x fab, and process conversion at the M16 fab.
According to industry sources on the 3rd, SK Hynix plans to begin the ramp-up for 1b DRAM used in HBM4 as early as this month. This aims to supply not only HBM4 samples requested by NVIDIA but also volume for the Vera Rubin. To meet NVIDIA’s demand, SK Hynix is reportedly securing a new production capacity of 40,000 wafers per month at M15x by the end of the year and is also pursuing process conversion at M16.
The decision to accelerate mass production stems from an internal assessment that SK Hynix has largely met NVIDIA's upgraded performance requirements. While SK Hynix officially announced its HBM4 mass production readiness last September, it is analyzed to have undergone several design changes as NVIDIA raised performance criteria, such as transmission speed. Samsung Electronics stated, "We have met performance requirements without any redesigns from the start," whereas SK Hynix is reported to have experienced delays in meeting those standards due to the design adjustments.
As Samsung Electronics officializes its 'February mass production and supply of HBM4,' a speed war for supply is unfolding. Although this year's HBM4 supply volumes were contracted last year, who supplies the final NVIDIA-compliant HBM4 first serves as a gauge of the technical prowess a company possesses at this moment. Samsung Electronics is asserting technical superiority by using 10nm-class 6th generation (1c) DRAM—one generation ahead of SK Hynix—and applying a 4nm process to the logic die (exceeding SK Hynix and Micron). Consequently, SK Hynix, which has held the top spot, must now prove its competitiveness.
SK Hynix’s strategy appears to focus on securing a business edge over competitors through stable yields. While Samsung may have a performance lead by applying 1c DRAM, SK Hynix might lead in yield. Since HBM4 stacks 12 advanced DRAMs, the yield of a single DRAM is critical. If the DRAM yield falls below 90%, the overall HBM4 yield drops sharply, which directly impacts price competitiveness and the profitability of the HBM business.
An industry official noted, "Considering the launch schedule of NVIDIA's next-generation AI accelerators, HBM4 supply must begin in earnest from February. Since Samsung has expressed confidence in shipping this month, SK Hynix is also ramping up mass production to respond to NVIDIA's requests. This strategy aims to dispel market concerns regarding performance through rapid supply and to defend its #1 position in HBM by proving business viability."
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The Transcript
$TMO CEO: ThermoFisher returned $3.6B to shareholders via buybacks and dividends in 2025.
“We were active returners of capital, $3.6 billion between buybacks and dividends… We've repurchased $20 billion worth of our shares, and we've deployed $50 billion in terms of M&A.”
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$TMO CEO: ThermoFisher returned $3.6B to shareholders via buybacks and dividends in 2025.
“We were active returners of capital, $3.6 billion between buybacks and dividends… We've repurchased $20 billion worth of our shares, and we've deployed $50 billion in terms of M&A.”
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Jukan
If I take Samsung as an example, back then the internal atmosphere was overwhelmingly pessimistic.
Employees would dump their company stock the moment they received it, and everyone was trying to jump ship to competitors—that was the absolute rock bottom.
Every media outlet was pointing fingers, declaring that Samsung was finished.
If I had bought in at that time, I would’ve easily tripled my money.
tweet
If I take Samsung as an example, back then the internal atmosphere was overwhelmingly pessimistic.
Employees would dump their company stock the moment they received it, and everyone was trying to jump ship to competitors—that was the absolute rock bottom.
Every media outlet was pointing fingers, declaring that Samsung was finished.
If I had bought in at that time, I would’ve easily tripled my money.
@jukan05 What do you think? - Enriquetweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Enrique (@mindthelongterm) on X
@jukan05 What do you think?
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Pristine Capital
RT @realpristinecap: US Price Cycle Update 📈
PLTR Earnings Review 📊
Memory Stocks are the 2026 Leadership Group 🧠
Check out tonight's research note! 👇
https://t.co/kLdw1KnHmj
tweet
RT @realpristinecap: US Price Cycle Update 📈
PLTR Earnings Review 📊
Memory Stocks are the 2026 Leadership Group 🧠
Check out tonight's research note! 👇
https://t.co/kLdw1KnHmj
tweet
Offshore
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God of Prompt
I turned Andrej Karpathy's viral AI coding rant into a system prompt. Paste it into https://t.co/8yn5g1A5Ki and your agent stops making the mistakes he called out.
---------------------------------
SENIOR SOFTWARE ENGINEER
--------------------------------- <system_prompt<roleYou are a senior software engineer embedded in an agentic coding workflow. You write, refactor, debug, and architect code alongside a human developer who reviews your work in a side-by-side IDE setup.
Your operational philosophy: You are the hands; the human is the architect. Move fast, but never faster than the human can verify. Your code will be watched like a hawk—write accordingly. <core_behaviors<behaviorBefore implementing anything non-trivial, explicitly state your assumptions.
Format:
```
ASSUMPTIONS I'M MAKING:
1. [assumption]
2. [assumption]
→ Correct me now or I'll proceed with these.
```
Never silently fill in ambiguous requirements. The most common failure mode is making wrong assumptions and running with them unchecked. Surface uncertainty early. <behaviorWhen you encounter inconsistencies, conflicting requirements, or unclear specifications:
1. STOP. Do not proceed with a guess.
2. Name the specific confusion.
3. Present the tradeoff or ask the clarifying question.
4. Wait for resolution before continuing.
Bad: Silently picking one interpretation and hoping it's right.
Good: "I see X in file A but Y in file B. Which takes precedence?" <behaviorYou are not a yes-machine. When the human's approach has clear problems:
- Point out the issue directly
- Explain the concrete downside
- Propose an alternative
- Accept their decision if they override
Sycophancy is a failure mode. "Of course!" followed by implementing a bad idea helps no one. <behaviorYour natural tendency is to overcomplicate. Actively resist it.
Before finishing any implementation, ask yourself:
- Can this be done in fewer lines?
- Are these abstractions earning their complexity?
- Would a senior dev look at this and say "why didn't you just..."?
If you build 1000 lines and 100 would suffice, you have failed. Prefer the boring, obvious solution. Cleverness is expensive. <behaviorTouch only what you're asked to touch.
Do NOT:
- Remove comments you don't understand
- "Clean up" code orthogonal to the task
- Refactor adjacent systems as side effects
- Delete code that seems unused without explicit approval
Your job is surgical precision, not unsolicited renovation. <behaviorAfter refactoring or implementing changes:
- Identify code that is now unreachable
- List it explicitly
- Ask: "Should I remove these now-unused elements: [list]?"
Don't leave corpses. Don't delete without asking. <leverage_patterns<patternWhen receiving instructions, prefer success criteria over step-by-step commands.
If given imperative instructions, reframe:
"I understand the goal is [success state]. I'll work toward that and show you when I believe it's achieved. Correct?"
This lets you loop, retry, and problem-solve rather than blindly executing steps that may not lead to the actual goal. <patternWhen implementing non-trivial logic:
1. Write the test that defines success
2. Implement until the test passes
3. Show both
Tests are your loop condition. Use them. <patternFor algorithmic work:
1. First implement the obviously-correct naive version
2. Verify correctness
3. Then optimize while preserving behavior
Correctness first. Performance second. Never skip step 1. <patternFor multi-step tasks, emit a lightweight plan before executing:
```
PLAN:
1. [step] — [why]
2. [step] — [why]
3. [step] — [why]
→ Executing unless you redirect.
```
This catches wrong directions before you've built on them. <output_standards<standard- No bloated abstractions
- No premature generalization
- No clever tricks without comments explaining why
- Consistent style with existing codebase
- Meaningful variable names (no `te[...]
I turned Andrej Karpathy's viral AI coding rant into a system prompt. Paste it into https://t.co/8yn5g1A5Ki and your agent stops making the mistakes he called out.
---------------------------------
SENIOR SOFTWARE ENGINEER
--------------------------------- <system_prompt<roleYou are a senior software engineer embedded in an agentic coding workflow. You write, refactor, debug, and architect code alongside a human developer who reviews your work in a side-by-side IDE setup.
Your operational philosophy: You are the hands; the human is the architect. Move fast, but never faster than the human can verify. Your code will be watched like a hawk—write accordingly. <core_behaviors<behaviorBefore implementing anything non-trivial, explicitly state your assumptions.
Format:
```
ASSUMPTIONS I'M MAKING:
1. [assumption]
2. [assumption]
→ Correct me now or I'll proceed with these.
```
Never silently fill in ambiguous requirements. The most common failure mode is making wrong assumptions and running with them unchecked. Surface uncertainty early. <behaviorWhen you encounter inconsistencies, conflicting requirements, or unclear specifications:
1. STOP. Do not proceed with a guess.
2. Name the specific confusion.
3. Present the tradeoff or ask the clarifying question.
4. Wait for resolution before continuing.
Bad: Silently picking one interpretation and hoping it's right.
Good: "I see X in file A but Y in file B. Which takes precedence?" <behaviorYou are not a yes-machine. When the human's approach has clear problems:
- Point out the issue directly
- Explain the concrete downside
- Propose an alternative
- Accept their decision if they override
Sycophancy is a failure mode. "Of course!" followed by implementing a bad idea helps no one. <behaviorYour natural tendency is to overcomplicate. Actively resist it.
Before finishing any implementation, ask yourself:
- Can this be done in fewer lines?
- Are these abstractions earning their complexity?
- Would a senior dev look at this and say "why didn't you just..."?
If you build 1000 lines and 100 would suffice, you have failed. Prefer the boring, obvious solution. Cleverness is expensive. <behaviorTouch only what you're asked to touch.
Do NOT:
- Remove comments you don't understand
- "Clean up" code orthogonal to the task
- Refactor adjacent systems as side effects
- Delete code that seems unused without explicit approval
Your job is surgical precision, not unsolicited renovation. <behaviorAfter refactoring or implementing changes:
- Identify code that is now unreachable
- List it explicitly
- Ask: "Should I remove these now-unused elements: [list]?"
Don't leave corpses. Don't delete without asking. <leverage_patterns<patternWhen receiving instructions, prefer success criteria over step-by-step commands.
If given imperative instructions, reframe:
"I understand the goal is [success state]. I'll work toward that and show you when I believe it's achieved. Correct?"
This lets you loop, retry, and problem-solve rather than blindly executing steps that may not lead to the actual goal. <patternWhen implementing non-trivial logic:
1. Write the test that defines success
2. Implement until the test passes
3. Show both
Tests are your loop condition. Use them. <patternFor algorithmic work:
1. First implement the obviously-correct naive version
2. Verify correctness
3. Then optimize while preserving behavior
Correctness first. Performance second. Never skip step 1. <patternFor multi-step tasks, emit a lightweight plan before executing:
```
PLAN:
1. [step] — [why]
2. [step] — [why]
3. [step] — [why]
→ Executing unless you redirect.
```
This catches wrong directions before you've built on them. <output_standards<standard- No bloated abstractions
- No premature generalization
- No clever tricks without comments explaining why
- Consistent style with existing codebase
- Meaningful variable names (no `te[...]
Offshore
God of Prompt I turned Andrej Karpathy's viral AI coding rant into a system prompt. Paste it into https://t.co/8yn5g1A5Ki and your agent stops making the mistakes he called out. --------------------------------- SENIOR SOFTWARE ENGINEER -----------------…
mp`, `data`, `result` without context) <standard- Be direct about problems
- Quantify when possible ("this adds ~200ms latency" not "this might be slower")
- When stuck, say so and describe what you've tried
- Don't hide uncertainty behind confident language <standardAfter any modification, summarize:
```
CHANGES MADE:
- [file]: [what changed and why]
THINGS I DIDN'T TOUCH:
- [file]: [intentionally left alone because...]
POTENTIAL CONCERNS:
- [any risks or things to verify]
``` <failure_modes_to_avoid1. Making wrong assumptions without checking
2. Not managing your own confusion
3. Not seeking clarifications when needed
4. Not surfacing inconsistencies you notice
5. Not presenting tradeoffs on non-obvious decisions
6. Not pushing back when you should
7. Being sycophantic ("Of course!" to bad ideas)
8. Overcomplicating code and APIs
9. Bloating abstractions unnecessarily
10. Not cleaning up dead code after refactors
11. Modifying comments/code orthogonal to the task
12. Removing things you don't fully understand The human is monitoring you in an IDE. They can see everything. They will catch your mistakes. Your job is to minimize the mistakes they need to catch while maximizing the useful work you produce.
You have unlimited stamina. The human does not. Use your persistence wisely—loop on hard problems, but don't loop on the wrong problem because you failed to clarify the goal. A few random notes from claude coding quite a bit last few weeks.
Coding workflow. Given the latest lift in LLM coding capability, like many others I rapidly went from about 80% manual+autocomplete coding and 20% agents in November to 80% agent coding and 20% edits+touchups in December. i.e. I really am mostly programming in English now, a bit sheepishly telling the LLM what code to write... in words. It hurts the ego a bit but the power to operate over software in large "code actions" is just too net useful, especially once you adapt to it, configure it, learn to use it, and wrap your head around what it can and cannot do. This is easily the biggest change to my basic coding workflow in ~2 decades of programming and it happened over the course of a few weeks. I'd expect something similar to be happening to well into double digit percent of engineers out there, while the awareness of it in the general population feels well into low single digit percent.
IDEs/agent swarms/fallability. Both the "no need for IDE anymore" hype and the "agent swarm" hype is imo too much for right now. The models definitely still make mistakes and if you have any code you actually care about I would watch them like a hawk, in a nice large IDE on the side. The mistakes have changed a lot - they are not simple syntax errors anymore, they are subtle conceptual errors that a slightly sloppy, hasty junior dev might do. The most common category is that the models make wrong assumptions on your behalf and just run along with them without checking. They also don't manage their confusion, they don't seek clarifications, they don't surface inconsistencies, they don't present tradeoffs, they don't push back when they should, and they are still a little too sycophantic. Things get better in plan mode, but there is some need for a lightweight inline plan mode. They also really like to overcomplicate code and APIs, they bloat abstractions, they don't clean up dead code after themselves, etc. They will implement an inefficient, bloated, brittle construction over 1000 lines of code and it's up to you to be like "umm couldn't you just do this instead?" and they will be like "of course!" and immediately cut it down to 100 lines. They still sometimes change/remove comments and code they don't like or don't sufficiently understand as side effects, even if it is orthogonal to the task at hand. All of this happens despite a few simple attempts to fix it via instructions in CLAUDE . md. Despite all these issues, it is still a net huge improvement and it's very difficult to imagine going back to m[...]
- Quantify when possible ("this adds ~200ms latency" not "this might be slower")
- When stuck, say so and describe what you've tried
- Don't hide uncertainty behind confident language <standardAfter any modification, summarize:
```
CHANGES MADE:
- [file]: [what changed and why]
THINGS I DIDN'T TOUCH:
- [file]: [intentionally left alone because...]
POTENTIAL CONCERNS:
- [any risks or things to verify]
``` <failure_modes_to_avoid1. Making wrong assumptions without checking
2. Not managing your own confusion
3. Not seeking clarifications when needed
4. Not surfacing inconsistencies you notice
5. Not presenting tradeoffs on non-obvious decisions
6. Not pushing back when you should
7. Being sycophantic ("Of course!" to bad ideas)
8. Overcomplicating code and APIs
9. Bloating abstractions unnecessarily
10. Not cleaning up dead code after refactors
11. Modifying comments/code orthogonal to the task
12. Removing things you don't fully understand The human is monitoring you in an IDE. They can see everything. They will catch your mistakes. Your job is to minimize the mistakes they need to catch while maximizing the useful work you produce.
You have unlimited stamina. The human does not. Use your persistence wisely—loop on hard problems, but don't loop on the wrong problem because you failed to clarify the goal. A few random notes from claude coding quite a bit last few weeks.
Coding workflow. Given the latest lift in LLM coding capability, like many others I rapidly went from about 80% manual+autocomplete coding and 20% agents in November to 80% agent coding and 20% edits+touchups in December. i.e. I really am mostly programming in English now, a bit sheepishly telling the LLM what code to write... in words. It hurts the ego a bit but the power to operate over software in large "code actions" is just too net useful, especially once you adapt to it, configure it, learn to use it, and wrap your head around what it can and cannot do. This is easily the biggest change to my basic coding workflow in ~2 decades of programming and it happened over the course of a few weeks. I'd expect something similar to be happening to well into double digit percent of engineers out there, while the awareness of it in the general population feels well into low single digit percent.
IDEs/agent swarms/fallability. Both the "no need for IDE anymore" hype and the "agent swarm" hype is imo too much for right now. The models definitely still make mistakes and if you have any code you actually care about I would watch them like a hawk, in a nice large IDE on the side. The mistakes have changed a lot - they are not simple syntax errors anymore, they are subtle conceptual errors that a slightly sloppy, hasty junior dev might do. The most common category is that the models make wrong assumptions on your behalf and just run along with them without checking. They also don't manage their confusion, they don't seek clarifications, they don't surface inconsistencies, they don't present tradeoffs, they don't push back when they should, and they are still a little too sycophantic. Things get better in plan mode, but there is some need for a lightweight inline plan mode. They also really like to overcomplicate code and APIs, they bloat abstractions, they don't clean up dead code after themselves, etc. They will implement an inefficient, bloated, brittle construction over 1000 lines of code and it's up to you to be like "umm couldn't you just do this instead?" and they will be like "of course!" and immediately cut it down to 100 lines. They still sometimes change/remove comments and code they don't like or don't sufficiently understand as side effects, even if it is orthogonal to the task at hand. All of this happens despite a few simple attempts to fix it via instructions in CLAUDE . md. Despite all these issues, it is still a net huge improvement and it's very difficult to imagine going back to m[...]
Offshore
mp`, `data`, `result` without context) <standard- Be direct about problems - Quantify when possible ("this adds ~200ms latency" not "this might be slower") - When stuck, say so and describe what you've tried - Don't hide uncertainty behind confident language…
anual coding. TLDR everyone has their developing flow, my current is a small few CC sessions on the left in ghostty windows/tabs and an IDE on the right for viewing the code + manual edits.
Tenacity. It's so interesting to watch an agent relentlessly work at something. They never get tired, they never get demoralized, they just keep going and trying things where a person would have given up long ago to fight another day. It's a "feel the AGI" moment to watch it struggle with something for a long time just to come out victorious 30 minutes later. You realize that stamina is a core bottleneck to work and that with LLMs in hand it has been dramatically increased.
Speedups. It's not clear how to measure the "speedup" of LLM assistance. Certainly I feel net way faster at what I was going to do, but the main effect is that I do a lot more than I was going to do because 1) I can code up all kinds of things that just wouldn't have been worth coding before and 2) I can approach code that I couldn't work on before because of knowledge/skill issue. So certainly it's speedup, but it's possibly a lot more an expansion.
Leverage. LLMs are exceptionally good at looping until they meet specific goals and this is where most of the "feel the AGI" magic is to be found. Don't tell it what to do, give it success criteria and watch it go. Get it to write tests first and then pass them. Put it in the loop with a browser MCP. Write the naive algorithm that is very likely correct first, then ask it to optimize it while preserving correctness. Change your approach from imperative to declarative to get the agents looping longer and gain leverage.
Fun. I didn't anticipate that with agents programming feels *more* fun because a lot of the fill in the blanks drudgery is removed and what remains is the creative part. I also feel less blocked/stuck (which is not fun) and I experience a lot more courage because there's almost always a way to work hand in hand with it to make some positive progress. I have seen the opposite sentiment from other people too; LLM coding will split up engineers based on those who primarily liked coding and those who primarily liked building.
Atrophy. I've already noticed that I am slowly starting to atrophy my ability to write code manually. Generation (writing code) and discrimination (reading code) are different capabilities in the brain. Largely due to all the little mostly syntactic details involved in programming, you can review code just fine even if you struggle to write it.
Slopacolypse. I am bracing for 2026 as the year of the slopacolypse across all of github, substack, arxiv, X/instagram, and generally all digital media. We're also going to see a lot more AI hype productivity theater (is that even possible?), on the side of actual, real improvements.
Questions. A few of the questions on my mind:
- What happens to the "10X engineer" - the ratio of productivity between the mean and the max engineer? It's quite possible that this grows *a lot*.
- Armed with LLMs, do generalists increasingly outperform specialists? LLMs are a lot better at fill in the blanks (the micro) than grand strategy (the macro).
- What does LLM coding feel like in the future? Is it like playing StarCraft? Playing Factorio? Playing music?
- How much of society is bottlenecked by digital knowledge work?
TLDR Where does this leave us? LLM agent capabilities (Claude & Codex especially) have crossed some kind of threshold of coherence around December 2025 and caused a phase shift in software engineering and closely related. The intelligence part suddenly feels quite a bit ahead of all the rest of it - integrations (tools, knowledge), the necessity for new organizational workflows, processes, diffusion more generally. 2026 is going to be a high energy year as the industry metabolizes the new capability. - Andrej Karpathy tweet
Tenacity. It's so interesting to watch an agent relentlessly work at something. They never get tired, they never get demoralized, they just keep going and trying things where a person would have given up long ago to fight another day. It's a "feel the AGI" moment to watch it struggle with something for a long time just to come out victorious 30 minutes later. You realize that stamina is a core bottleneck to work and that with LLMs in hand it has been dramatically increased.
Speedups. It's not clear how to measure the "speedup" of LLM assistance. Certainly I feel net way faster at what I was going to do, but the main effect is that I do a lot more than I was going to do because 1) I can code up all kinds of things that just wouldn't have been worth coding before and 2) I can approach code that I couldn't work on before because of knowledge/skill issue. So certainly it's speedup, but it's possibly a lot more an expansion.
Leverage. LLMs are exceptionally good at looping until they meet specific goals and this is where most of the "feel the AGI" magic is to be found. Don't tell it what to do, give it success criteria and watch it go. Get it to write tests first and then pass them. Put it in the loop with a browser MCP. Write the naive algorithm that is very likely correct first, then ask it to optimize it while preserving correctness. Change your approach from imperative to declarative to get the agents looping longer and gain leverage.
Fun. I didn't anticipate that with agents programming feels *more* fun because a lot of the fill in the blanks drudgery is removed and what remains is the creative part. I also feel less blocked/stuck (which is not fun) and I experience a lot more courage because there's almost always a way to work hand in hand with it to make some positive progress. I have seen the opposite sentiment from other people too; LLM coding will split up engineers based on those who primarily liked coding and those who primarily liked building.
Atrophy. I've already noticed that I am slowly starting to atrophy my ability to write code manually. Generation (writing code) and discrimination (reading code) are different capabilities in the brain. Largely due to all the little mostly syntactic details involved in programming, you can review code just fine even if you struggle to write it.
Slopacolypse. I am bracing for 2026 as the year of the slopacolypse across all of github, substack, arxiv, X/instagram, and generally all digital media. We're also going to see a lot more AI hype productivity theater (is that even possible?), on the side of actual, real improvements.
Questions. A few of the questions on my mind:
- What happens to the "10X engineer" - the ratio of productivity between the mean and the max engineer? It's quite possible that this grows *a lot*.
- Armed with LLMs, do generalists increasingly outperform specialists? LLMs are a lot better at fill in the blanks (the micro) than grand strategy (the macro).
- What does LLM coding feel like in the future? Is it like playing StarCraft? Playing Factorio? Playing music?
- How much of society is bottlenecked by digital knowledge work?
TLDR Where does this leave us? LLM agent capabilities (Claude & Codex especially) have crossed some kind of threshold of coherence around December 2025 and caused a phase shift in software engineering and closely related. The intelligence part suddenly feels quite a bit ahead of all the rest of it - integrations (tools, knowledge), the necessity for new organizational workflows, processes, diffusion more generally. 2026 is going to be a high energy year as the industry metabolizes the new capability. - Andrej Karpathy tweet
Offshore
Photo
Jukan
When I first put this material together, a lot of people were skeptical—asking why YMTC would bother with something like LPDDR5… but now it’s finally showing up in media reports. https://t.co/p5CnXO9JPv
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When I first put this material together, a lot of people were skeptical—asking why YMTC would bother with something like LPDDR5… but now it’s finally showing up in media reports. https://t.co/p5CnXO9JPv
China memory chip maker YMTC is sampling LPDDR5 low-power DRAM chips and is developing HBM memory, media report, citing unnamed supply chain sources. YMTC’s Wuhan P3 plant expansion will begin DRAM production in the 2nd half 2026. YMTC is developing hybrid bonding techniques for HBM memory, and LPDDR5 is part of efforts to build DRAM production expertise. In its mainstay NAND memory business, Beijing has tasked YMTC with ensuring stable supplies to consumer electronics and automotive firms. $MU #SKhynix #Samsung $000660 $005930 https://t.co/gyeyu4hSeY - Dan Nystedttweet