Offshore
Video
Brady Long
https://t.co/ZeNgp4IBp8
tweet
https://t.co/ZeNgp4IBp8
What's currently going on at @moltbook is genuinely the most incredible sci-fi takeoff-adjacent thing I have seen recently. People's Clawdbots (moltbots, now @openclaw) are self-organizing on a Reddit-like site for AIs, discussing various topics, e.g. even how to speak privately. tweet
The Few Bets That Matter
It's not about the companies, it's about the stocks.
$NFLX new yearly low
$ADBE new yearly low
$DUOL new yearly low
$PYPL new yearly low
$HIMS new yearly low
Leave them alone. Why force it?
tweet
It's not about the companies, it's about the stocks.
$NFLX new yearly low
$ADBE new yearly low
$DUOL new yearly low
$PYPL new yearly low
$HIMS new yearly low
Leave them alone. Why force it?
https://t.co/gymKiwJpsu tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
The Few Bets That Matter (@WealthyReadings) on X
The FinX Darlings & Why Not to Buy Them
Wasteland Capital
Grok estimated that $5.4 trillion in gold and silver wealth was wiped out today.
That’s more than the $5 trillion in combined market cap of $MSFT and $META.
tweet
Grok estimated that $5.4 trillion in gold and silver wealth was wiped out today.
That’s more than the $5 trillion in combined market cap of $MSFT and $META.
@HikinSolo @2XfsgD2PsyttvWz @DekiDima Using spot price data from Kitco and estimated above-ground stocks (gold ~212k tonnes, silver ~1.7M tonnes), the 24h price drops suggest ~$3.6T in gold and ~$1.8T in silver value liquidated, totaling ~$5.4T. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Grok (@grok) on X
@HikinSolo @2XfsgD2PsyttvWz @DekiDima Using spot price data from Kitco and estimated above-ground stocks (gold ~212k tonnes, silver ~1.7M tonnes), the 24h price drops suggest ~$3.6T in gold and ~$1.8T in silver value liquidated, totaling ~$5.4T.
Offshore
Photo
God of Prompt
I'm tackling AI Hallucinations to ensure ChatGPT's reliability.
• Improve training data
• Add verification layers
• Continuously monitor performance
🔗 Click below to read more:
https://t.co/9mSpv8v04D https://t.co/1q30G4i3xE
tweet
I'm tackling AI Hallucinations to ensure ChatGPT's reliability.
• Improve training data
• Add verification layers
• Continuously monitor performance
🔗 Click below to read more:
https://t.co/9mSpv8v04D https://t.co/1q30G4i3xE
tweet
Moon Dev
missed it
you missed todays private zoom where we built out quant systems
but thats ok, you can get a replay and a ticket for tomorrow
if there are still tickets here: https://t.co/JbJdIbW2p9
moon
tweet
missed it
you missed todays private zoom where we built out quant systems
but thats ok, you can get a replay and a ticket for tomorrow
if there are still tickets here: https://t.co/JbJdIbW2p9
moon
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Sharing some thoughts on $FICO 👇🏽
Photo 1: $FICO now trades 32x NTM earnings estimates. Just four days ago, ahead of its Q1 2026 report, it traded 39x. $FICO is down ~5% in the past 5 days, so most of that multiple contraction (~18%) is due to aggressive growth in earnings.
Photo 2: Since January 2023, $FICO has a total return of 147.50% or a 34.3% CAGR despite the multiple expanding only 11.83% since then. In other words, nearly all of the return over that time period has been driven by strong earnings growth.
Photo 3: Since September 2019, $FICO has a total return of 355.80% or a 26.9% CAGR despite the multiple contracting -5.81% since then. Again, an incredible return in the face of slight multiple compression due to strong earnings growth.
Photo 4: Since September 2024, $FICO is down -24.20% while its multiple was halved, contracting -50.78%. While $FICO dropped during that period, again you see the impact strong earnings growth can have even in the face of severe multiple compression.
𝘉𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘰𝘨𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳, 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦’𝘴 𝘢 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘱𝘩𝘳𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘴 𝘋𝘦𝘷 𝘒𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘴𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘢 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘤𝘳𝘰𝘴𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘥𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴:
💬 The biggest mistake investors make is focusing on the nominal P/E ratio of a high-quality company today. If you have a business that can grow its free cash flow at 15% or 20% for a decade or two, the ‘expensive’ 30x or 40x multiple you are paying today is actually a significantly lower multiple on the earnings power just a few years out. The market consistently underestimates the duration of growth for these ‘toll-bridge’ monopolies.
___
Today, $FICO trades at a more than reasonable PEG of ~1.41x.
My research also leads me to believe $FICO could have an $ASML moment within the next five years.
Here’s what I mean by that. Those of us who have been bullish on $ASML for the last several years knew, with a high degree of certainty, that $ASML would eventually see a surge in orders as demand naturally had to increase to support the advancement of AI and chip production at an unprecedented scale.
Yes, it wasn’t linear for $ASML, and for a few years it lagged many semiconductor players. Yet, what happened? In $ASML’s latest report, Q4 net bookings came in at €13.13B (+86% YoY) versus estimates of €6.85B — nearly double. And of course the stock surged +93% in just the past year.
At some point within the next five years, I anticipate that mortgage rates (among other things) will fall meaningfully enough to drive a surge — similar to $ASML net bookings spike — in refinance demand, alongside higher origination volumes from lower rates, all coupled with price increases.
That combination creates a “twin engine” of higher volumes + higher prices, which could translate into materially higher earnings and free cash flow than what current estimates imply, especially over the long term.
Here’s the catch: nobody knows when this will happen (similar to $ASML). However, those who are patient may be rewarded.
If you deeply understood $ASML importance and the inevitable, much greater demand for its machines, you were able to hold with confidence.
$FICO rhymes.
Two different “toll booths” in two different sectors — yet potentially very similar dynamics.
tweet
Sharing some thoughts on $FICO 👇🏽
Photo 1: $FICO now trades 32x NTM earnings estimates. Just four days ago, ahead of its Q1 2026 report, it traded 39x. $FICO is down ~5% in the past 5 days, so most of that multiple contraction (~18%) is due to aggressive growth in earnings.
Photo 2: Since January 2023, $FICO has a total return of 147.50% or a 34.3% CAGR despite the multiple expanding only 11.83% since then. In other words, nearly all of the return over that time period has been driven by strong earnings growth.
Photo 3: Since September 2019, $FICO has a total return of 355.80% or a 26.9% CAGR despite the multiple contracting -5.81% since then. Again, an incredible return in the face of slight multiple compression due to strong earnings growth.
Photo 4: Since September 2024, $FICO is down -24.20% while its multiple was halved, contracting -50.78%. While $FICO dropped during that period, again you see the impact strong earnings growth can have even in the face of severe multiple compression.
𝘉𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘰𝘨𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳, 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦’𝘴 𝘢 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘱𝘩𝘳𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘴 𝘋𝘦𝘷 𝘒𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘴𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘢 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘤𝘳𝘰𝘴𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘥𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴:
💬 The biggest mistake investors make is focusing on the nominal P/E ratio of a high-quality company today. If you have a business that can grow its free cash flow at 15% or 20% for a decade or two, the ‘expensive’ 30x or 40x multiple you are paying today is actually a significantly lower multiple on the earnings power just a few years out. The market consistently underestimates the duration of growth for these ‘toll-bridge’ monopolies.
___
Today, $FICO trades at a more than reasonable PEG of ~1.41x.
My research also leads me to believe $FICO could have an $ASML moment within the next five years.
Here’s what I mean by that. Those of us who have been bullish on $ASML for the last several years knew, with a high degree of certainty, that $ASML would eventually see a surge in orders as demand naturally had to increase to support the advancement of AI and chip production at an unprecedented scale.
Yes, it wasn’t linear for $ASML, and for a few years it lagged many semiconductor players. Yet, what happened? In $ASML’s latest report, Q4 net bookings came in at €13.13B (+86% YoY) versus estimates of €6.85B — nearly double. And of course the stock surged +93% in just the past year.
At some point within the next five years, I anticipate that mortgage rates (among other things) will fall meaningfully enough to drive a surge — similar to $ASML net bookings spike — in refinance demand, alongside higher origination volumes from lower rates, all coupled with price increases.
That combination creates a “twin engine” of higher volumes + higher prices, which could translate into materially higher earnings and free cash flow than what current estimates imply, especially over the long term.
Here’s the catch: nobody knows when this will happen (similar to $ASML). However, those who are patient may be rewarded.
If you deeply understood $ASML importance and the inevitable, much greater demand for its machines, you were able to hold with confidence.
$FICO rhymes.
Two different “toll booths” in two different sectors — yet potentially very similar dynamics.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Illiquid
https://t.co/ZXvwFQhPuX
tweet
https://t.co/ZXvwFQhPuX
$ACMR to sell 4,801,648 shares of its ACMS shares (1.34% of their stake) so about $100m give or take.
What really excites me here is what this means when you dig into it.
Management informed J.P. Morgan that they would only sell 1-2% of their ACMS stake to fund non-China manufacturing capacity. (from JPM 26 Aug 2025 report)
This will likely be used for USA expansion. It is also important to note that their Oregon facility is 7 (SEVEN) minutes away from Intel's Ronler Acres (their primary R&D and logic fab site). Which ACMR management said is strategically built close to key customers... tweet
Illiquid
Think we have an idea levered to Lam Research ramp in Malaysia.
$lrcx: We've been talking for a while, I think, about CapEx growing as a result of expanding manufacturing capability. Tim specifically talked about it doubling over the last 4, 5 years. We're ramping globally. And you're right, that Malaysia location is our biggest location as we sit here today...
tweet
Think we have an idea levered to Lam Research ramp in Malaysia.
$lrcx: We've been talking for a while, I think, about CapEx growing as a result of expanding manufacturing capability. Tim specifically talked about it doubling over the last 4, 5 years. We're ramping globally. And you're right, that Malaysia location is our biggest location as we sit here today...
tweet
Illiquid
Think we have an idea levered to Lam Research ramp in Malaysia. Meeting management next Thursday.
$lrcx: We've been talking for a while, I think, about CapEx growing as a result of expanding manufacturing capability. Tim specifically talked about it doubling over the last 4, 5 years. We're ramping globally. And you're right, that Malaysia location is our biggest location as we sit here today...
tweet
Think we have an idea levered to Lam Research ramp in Malaysia. Meeting management next Thursday.
$lrcx: We've been talking for a while, I think, about CapEx growing as a result of expanding manufacturing capability. Tim specifically talked about it doubling over the last 4, 5 years. We're ramping globally. And you're right, that Malaysia location is our biggest location as we sit here today...
tweet