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Giuliano
20 Books are Worth a College Degree
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Brady Long
I almost lost my entire company data because of Clawd Bot

It basically turned my Mac Mini into a hacker's playground. So I switched to FlashLabs SuperAgent:

0 risks & same 24/7 execution. I'm done being a degenerate with agents. https://t.co/8NHVEOLRwi

๐Ÿง‘โ€๐Ÿณ๐ŸฆžClawdbot โ†’ Moltbot chaos: Anthropic C&D forces rebrand over "Clawd" trademark clash with Claude. In the 10-second scramble, scammers hijack X/GitHub handles, launch fake CLAWD tokenโ€”spikes to $16M MC then rugs to zero. Hundreds of exposed gateways leak API keys, private convos, OAuth secrets (SlowMist/O'Reilly warnings). Prompt injections steal emails in minutes. Mac Mini buyers face infra hell, crashes, $200/mo API bills, and "is my data public?" panic.

Hype earned: Local agents actually execute (FFmpeg hacks, 24/7 workflows, real actions). But security roulette + infra hell = massive risk.

๐Ÿ”ฅ๐Ÿ”ฅThat's why weโ€™re shipping FlashLabs SuperAgent today: Your hosted, enterprise-secure Jarvis that runs your company 24/7 - no shell access risks, no hardware gamble, no drama.๐Ÿ”ฅ

Control from Telegram, iMessage, SMS (more IM coming soon). Send a text โ†’ shit gets done.

SuperAgent executes real business, not just chats:
โ€ข Automates email, calendar, CRM, invoicing, ops
โ€ข Browser-level actions across the web
โ€ข Scans different signals and finds customers for you
โ€ข Creates decks, images, videos, research, market plans
โ€ข Manages pipeline, forecasting, deal QA, follow-ups
โ€ข Supports thousands of integrations (YouTube, social platforms, CRMs, email, ERP, finance systems + more)
โ€ข Monitors systems, data, performance in background โ€” proactively, even offline

Persistent memory + deep biz understanding. Multi-agent, multi-step workflows built for teams & outcomes, not solo tinkering.

No Mac Mini. No infra management. No auth gymnastics. No security/setup pain. Hosted & ready โ€” messaging becomes the control plane.

Early users wake to signed contracts + revenue updates. AI as workforce, zero chaos.

FlashLabs SuperAgent is live!
Sign up FREE here: https://t.co/n2hTz8f4Oj
Watch the full demo video: https://t.co/bboMRVB66c
Also available on
Telegram: @flashsuperagentbot
iMessage/Text: +1 855 734 5804
other messengers coming soon

RT if you're done with local agent nightmares.
Comment "SUPER" for early access tips + workflow examples.
Tag a founder still debugging Moltbot on their Mini.
#AIAgents #Moltbot #SuperAgent #FlashLabs
- FlashLabs
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Brady Long
RT @bigaiguy: Hot take: Chatbots are dead and local agents like Clawd bot are security disasters.

The future is hosted w/ proactive AI workforces that execute real biz ops without exposing your data.

Check out FlashLabs SuperAgent. Welcome to 2087.

๐Ÿง‘โ€๐Ÿณ๐ŸฆžClawdbot โ†’ Moltbot chaos: Anthropic C&D forces rebrand over "Clawd" trademark clash with Claude. In the 10-second scramble, scammers hijack X/GitHub handles, launch fake CLAWD tokenโ€”spikes to $16M MC then rugs to zero. Hundreds of exposed gateways leak API keys, private convos, OAuth secrets (SlowMist/O'Reilly warnings). Prompt injections steal emails in minutes. Mac Mini buyers face infra hell, crashes, $200/mo API bills, and "is my data public?" panic.

Hype earned: Local agents actually execute (FFmpeg hacks, 24/7 workflows, real actions). But security roulette + infra hell = massive risk.

๐Ÿ”ฅ๐Ÿ”ฅThat's why weโ€™re shipping FlashLabs SuperAgent today: Your hosted, enterprise-secure Jarvis that runs your company 24/7 - no shell access risks, no hardware gamble, no drama.๐Ÿ”ฅ

Control from Telegram, iMessage, SMS (more IM coming soon). Send a text โ†’ shit gets done.

SuperAgent executes real business, not just chats:
โ€ข Automates email, calendar, CRM, invoicing, ops
โ€ข Browser-level actions across the web
โ€ข Scans different signals and finds customers for you
โ€ข Creates decks, images, videos, research, market plans
โ€ข Manages pipeline, forecasting, deal QA, follow-ups
โ€ข Supports thousands of integrations (YouTube, social platforms, CRMs, email, ERP, finance systems + more)
โ€ข Monitors systems, data, performance in background โ€” proactively, even offline

Persistent memory + deep biz understanding. Multi-agent, multi-step workflows built for teams & outcomes, not solo tinkering.

No Mac Mini. No infra management. No auth gymnastics. No security/setup pain. Hosted & ready โ€” messaging becomes the control plane.

Early users wake to signed contracts + revenue updates. AI as workforce, zero chaos.

FlashLabs SuperAgent is live!
Sign up FREE here: https://t.co/n2hTz8f4Oj
Watch the full demo video: https://t.co/bboMRVB66c
Also available on
Telegram: @flashsuperagentbot
iMessage/Text: +1 855 734 5804
other messengers coming soon

RT if you're done with local agent nightmares.
Comment "SUPER" for early access tips + workflow examples.
Tag a founder still debugging Moltbot on their Mini.
#AIAgents #Moltbot #SuperAgent #FlashLabs
- FlashLabs
tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
โ€œ $MSFT has large margin of safety at $420๐Ÿ’ต, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 25x โ€ https://t.co/5rGIiHiHa1

A quality valuation analysis on $MSFT ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 27.29x
โ€ข3-Year Mean: 30.51x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 2.09%
โ€ข3-Year Mean: 2.46%

As you can see, $MSFT appears to be trading below fair value on a forward earnings basis

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~12% MORE in earnings per share & ~18% LESS in FCF per share๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $MSFT is a super business

BALANCE SHEETโœ…
โ€ขCash & Equivalents: $102.01B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $35.38B

$MSFT has an excellent balance sheet, an AAA S&P Credit Rating & 58x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITALโœ…
โ€ข2021: 31.1%
โ€ข2022: 34.0%
โ€ข2023: 30.9%
โ€ข2024: 29.7%
โ€ข2025: 28.0%

RETURN ON EQUITYโœ…
โ€ข2021: 47.1%
โ€ข2022: 47.2%
โ€ข2023: 38.8%
โ€ข2024: 37.1%
โ€ข2025: 33.3%

$MSFT has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUEโœ…
โ€ข2021: $168.09B
โ€ข2026E: $326.83B
โ€ขCAGR: 14.22%

FREE CASH FLOW๐Ÿ†—*
โ€ข2021: $56.12B
โ€ข2026E: $75.05B
โ€ขCAGR: 5.98%

*This is largely due to heavy AI-related reinvestment โ€” current 2028 FCF estimate $116.45B โ€” worth noting operating cash flow increases underscore $MSFT efficient AI infrastructure scaling validating high ROI-potential

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2021: $7.97
โ€ข2026E: $16.26
โ€ขCAGR: 15.32%

SHARE BUYBACKSโœ…
โ€ข2016 Shares Outstanding: 8.01B
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 7.46B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~7%, $MSFT increased its EPS by ~8% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINSโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 68.8%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 46.3%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 35.7%

PAID DIVIDENDSโœ…
โ€ข2015: $1.24
โ€ข2025: $3.32
โ€ขCAGR: 10.34%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~12% MORE in EPS & ~18% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $MSFT has to grow earnings at a 13.65% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (13.65%) required growth rate:

2026E: $16.26 (19% YoY) *FY Jun

2027E: $18.75 (15% YoY)
2028E: $22.31 (19% YoY)

$MSFT has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโ€™s assume $MSFT ends 2028 with $22.31 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

30x P/E: $669๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~17.9% CAGR

29x P/E: $647๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~16.3% CAGR

28x P/E: $625๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~14.7% CAGR

27x P/E: $602๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~13.0% CAGR

26x P/E: $580๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~11.3% CAGR

As you can see, weโ€™d have to assume ~28x multiple for $MSFT to have attractive return potential

At 26x - 27x earnings $MSFT has ok CAGR potential

If $MSFT multiple expands slightly, >15% CAGR

$MSFT is one of the highest quality companies in the world & is firing on all cylinders

Today at $454๐Ÿ’ต $MSFT appears to be a strong consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety

$MSFT has large margin of safety at $420๐Ÿ’ต, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 25x
___

๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ

๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ž๐๐ฎ๐œ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž, ๐š๐ง ๐จ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐ž๐ซ, ๐จ๐ซ ๐š ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐œ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ.

๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐. ๐€๐ง๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐ง๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ž๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ซ๐ž ๐š๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐๐š๐ญ๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐›๐ฅ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐›๐ฃ๐ž๐œ๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐ก๐š๐ง๐ ๐ž ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐œ๐ž.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š[...]
Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ โ€œ $MSFT has large margin of safety at $420๐Ÿ’ต, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 25x โ€ https://t.co/5rGIiHiHa1 A quality valuation analysis on $MSFT ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 27.29x โ€ข3โ€ฆ
๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐๐จ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ tweet
Offshore
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Startup Archive
DoorDash founder Tony Xu: "You can't compete against an incumbent on their territoryโ€

Tony argues:

โ€œYou have to find something where they're not incentivized to do it (Innovator's dilemma)โ€ฆ and you have to find an area where you think you can be advantaged.โ€

For DoorDash, this was end-to-end delivery and focusing on suburbs rather than cities. The incumbents at the time didnโ€™t want to touch end-to-end delivery because it was lower margin. Incumbents also focused on cities because of the network density, but DoorDash realized the market outside of city centers was actually the bigger opportunity because thatโ€™s where most people lived.

โ€œKnowing where the market is and knowing structurally why that's different and why that might be difficult for a competitor to serve, that's pretty important. Now, you also have to be correct on that betโ€ฆ [Our bet on serving suburbs] turned out to be correct. But we didn't know that a priori.โ€

Tonyโ€™s other piece of advice is that you have to be โ€œsuper fastโ€. A key advantage versus incumbents is that they have to make capital allocation decisions across their many businesses. But you probably only have one product so you should be able to move much faster:

โ€œFocus is actually really easyโ€ฆ Youโ€™ve got to build that one productโ€

Video source: @khoslaventures (2024)
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