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The Few Bets That Matter
You should be listening to the market.

$META delivered crystal-clear earnings showing AI is making a real difference, and proved its ROI.

$ASML crushed it with clear and massive demand with ongoing infrastructure expansion.

$MSFT posted consistent growth while being supply constrained.

Even $NOW had a good quarter.

And yet… the market keeps selling tech.
This isn’t a small overreaction to bad headlines. It’s selling strong earnings and solid guidance; and for months now, most haven’t been able to reclaim key levels.

You don’t have to listen to the market.
But maybe you should.

In the meantime, all the stocks shared here and with subscribers in details are flat or green and grinding higher.

https://t.co/GeThNIWDHo
- The Few Bets That Matter
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Quiver Quantitative
Another wild one.

Ichor stock has now risen 113% since we posted this report a few months ago.

Up another 3% today, even with the market down. https://t.co/6tEoAFEMlY
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Offshore
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Giuliano
20 Books are Worth a College Degree
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Offshore
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Brady Long
I almost lost my entire company data because of Clawd Bot

It basically turned my Mac Mini into a hacker's playground. So I switched to FlashLabs SuperAgent:

0 risks & same 24/7 execution. I'm done being a degenerate with agents. https://t.co/8NHVEOLRwi

🧑‍🍳🦞Clawdbot → Moltbot chaos: Anthropic C&D forces rebrand over "Clawd" trademark clash with Claude. In the 10-second scramble, scammers hijack X/GitHub handles, launch fake CLAWD token—spikes to $16M MC then rugs to zero. Hundreds of exposed gateways leak API keys, private convos, OAuth secrets (SlowMist/O'Reilly warnings). Prompt injections steal emails in minutes. Mac Mini buyers face infra hell, crashes, $200/mo API bills, and "is my data public?" panic.

Hype earned: Local agents actually execute (FFmpeg hacks, 24/7 workflows, real actions). But security roulette + infra hell = massive risk.

🔥🔥That's why we’re shipping FlashLabs SuperAgent today: Your hosted, enterprise-secure Jarvis that runs your company 24/7 - no shell access risks, no hardware gamble, no drama.🔥

Control from Telegram, iMessage, SMS (more IM coming soon). Send a text → shit gets done.

SuperAgent executes real business, not just chats:
• Automates email, calendar, CRM, invoicing, ops
• Browser-level actions across the web
• Scans different signals and finds customers for you
• Creates decks, images, videos, research, market plans
• Manages pipeline, forecasting, deal QA, follow-ups
• Supports thousands of integrations (YouTube, social platforms, CRMs, email, ERP, finance systems + more)
• Monitors systems, data, performance in background — proactively, even offline

Persistent memory + deep biz understanding. Multi-agent, multi-step workflows built for teams & outcomes, not solo tinkering.

No Mac Mini. No infra management. No auth gymnastics. No security/setup pain. Hosted & ready — messaging becomes the control plane.

Early users wake to signed contracts + revenue updates. AI as workforce, zero chaos.

FlashLabs SuperAgent is live!
Sign up FREE here: https://t.co/n2hTz8f4Oj
Watch the full demo video: https://t.co/bboMRVB66c
Also available on
Telegram: @flashsuperagentbot
iMessage/Text: +1 855 734 5804
other messengers coming soon

RT if you're done with local agent nightmares.
Comment "SUPER" for early access tips + workflow examples.
Tag a founder still debugging Moltbot on their Mini.
#AIAgents #Moltbot #SuperAgent #FlashLabs
- FlashLabs
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Offshore
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Brady Long
RT @bigaiguy: Hot take: Chatbots are dead and local agents like Clawd bot are security disasters.

The future is hosted w/ proactive AI workforces that execute real biz ops without exposing your data.

Check out FlashLabs SuperAgent. Welcome to 2087.

🧑‍🍳🦞Clawdbot → Moltbot chaos: Anthropic C&D forces rebrand over "Clawd" trademark clash with Claude. In the 10-second scramble, scammers hijack X/GitHub handles, launch fake CLAWD token—spikes to $16M MC then rugs to zero. Hundreds of exposed gateways leak API keys, private convos, OAuth secrets (SlowMist/O'Reilly warnings). Prompt injections steal emails in minutes. Mac Mini buyers face infra hell, crashes, $200/mo API bills, and "is my data public?" panic.

Hype earned: Local agents actually execute (FFmpeg hacks, 24/7 workflows, real actions). But security roulette + infra hell = massive risk.

🔥🔥That's why we’re shipping FlashLabs SuperAgent today: Your hosted, enterprise-secure Jarvis that runs your company 24/7 - no shell access risks, no hardware gamble, no drama.🔥

Control from Telegram, iMessage, SMS (more IM coming soon). Send a text → shit gets done.

SuperAgent executes real business, not just chats:
• Automates email, calendar, CRM, invoicing, ops
• Browser-level actions across the web
• Scans different signals and finds customers for you
• Creates decks, images, videos, research, market plans
• Manages pipeline, forecasting, deal QA, follow-ups
• Supports thousands of integrations (YouTube, social platforms, CRMs, email, ERP, finance systems + more)
• Monitors systems, data, performance in background — proactively, even offline

Persistent memory + deep biz understanding. Multi-agent, multi-step workflows built for teams & outcomes, not solo tinkering.

No Mac Mini. No infra management. No auth gymnastics. No security/setup pain. Hosted & ready — messaging becomes the control plane.

Early users wake to signed contracts + revenue updates. AI as workforce, zero chaos.

FlashLabs SuperAgent is live!
Sign up FREE here: https://t.co/n2hTz8f4Oj
Watch the full demo video: https://t.co/bboMRVB66c
Also available on
Telegram: @flashsuperagentbot
iMessage/Text: +1 855 734 5804
other messengers coming soon

RT if you're done with local agent nightmares.
Comment "SUPER" for early access tips + workflow examples.
Tag a founder still debugging Moltbot on their Mini.
#AIAgents #Moltbot #SuperAgent #FlashLabs
- FlashLabs
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
“ $MSFT has large margin of safety at $420💵, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 25x ” https://t.co/5rGIiHiHa1

A quality valuation analysis on $MSFT 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 27.29x
•3-Year Mean: 30.51x

•NTM FCF Yield: 2.09%
•3-Year Mean: 2.46%

As you can see, $MSFT appears to be trading below fair value on a forward earnings basis

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~12% MORE in earnings per share & ~18% LESS in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSFT is a super business

BALANCE SHEET
•Cash & Equivalents: $102.01B
•Long-Term Debt: $35.38B

$MSFT has an excellent balance sheet, an AAA S&P Credit Rating & 58x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 34.0%
•2023: 30.9%
•2024: 29.7%
•2025: 28.0%

RETURN ON EQUITY
•2021: 47.1%
•2022: 47.2%
•2023: 38.8%
•2024: 37.1%
•2025: 33.3%

$MSFT has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUE
•2021: $168.09B
•2026E: $326.83B
•CAGR: 14.22%

FREE CASH FLOW🆗*
•2021: $56.12B
•2026E: $75.05B
•CAGR: 5.98%

*This is largely due to heavy AI-related reinvestment — current 2028 FCF estimate $116.45B — worth noting operating cash flow increases underscore $MSFT efficient AI infrastructure scaling validating high ROI-potential

NORMALIZED EPS
•2021: $7.97
•2026E: $16.26
•CAGR: 15.32%

SHARE BUYBACKS
•2016 Shares Outstanding: 8.01B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 7.46B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~7%, $MSFT increased its EPS by ~8% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS
•LTM Gross Margins: 68.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 46.3%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 35.7%

PAID DIVIDENDS
•2015: $1.24
•2025: $3.32
•CAGR: 10.34%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~12% MORE in EPS & ~18% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSFT has to grow earnings at a 13.65% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (13.65%) required growth rate:

2026E: $16.26 (19% YoY) *FY Jun

2027E: $18.75 (15% YoY)
2028E: $22.31 (19% YoY)

$MSFT has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $MSFT ends 2028 with $22.31 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

30x P/E: $669💵 … ~17.9% CAGR

29x P/E: $647💵 … ~16.3% CAGR

28x P/E: $625💵 … ~14.7% CAGR

27x P/E: $602💵 … ~13.0% CAGR

26x P/E: $580💵 … ~11.3% CAGR

As you can see, we’d have to assume ~28x multiple for $MSFT to have attractive return potential

At 26x - 27x earnings $MSFT has ok CAGR potential

If $MSFT multiple expands slightly, >15% CAGR

$MSFT is one of the highest quality companies in the world & is firing on all cylinders

Today at $454💵 $MSFT appears to be a strong consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety

$MSFT has large margin of safety at $420💵, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 25x
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️

𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞, 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫, 𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲.

𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚[...]
Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® “ $MSFT has large margin of safety at $420💵, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 25x ” https://t.co/5rGIiHiHa1 A quality valuation analysis on $MSFT 🧘🏽‍♂️ •NTM P/E Ratio: 27.29x •3…
𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet
Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
DoorDash founder Tony Xu: "You can't compete against an incumbent on their territory”

Tony argues:

“You have to find something where they're not incentivized to do it (Innovator's dilemma)… and you have to find an area where you think you can be advantaged.”

For DoorDash, this was end-to-end delivery and focusing on suburbs rather than cities. The incumbents at the time didn’t want to touch end-to-end delivery because it was lower margin. Incumbents also focused on cities because of the network density, but DoorDash realized the market outside of city centers was actually the bigger opportunity because that’s where most people lived.

“Knowing where the market is and knowing structurally why that's different and why that might be difficult for a competitor to serve, that's pretty important. Now, you also have to be correct on that bet… [Our bet on serving suburbs] turned out to be correct. But we didn't know that a priori.”

Tony’s other piece of advice is that you have to be “super fast”. A key advantage versus incumbents is that they have to make capital allocation decisions across their many businesses. But you probably only have one product so you should be able to move much faster:

“Focus is actually really easy… You’ve got to build that one product”

Video source: @khoslaventures (2024)
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