Offshore

1 view16:41

The Few Bets That Matter
$TMDX closed the quarter with 2,308 flights after a very strong finish to December.

I see a revenue floor of ~$157M (+29% YoY), putting FY25 slightly above $600M (+36% YoY).

Final numbers will depend on DCD/DBD mix, services and heart/lung trials, but overall I expect $TMDX to at least meet the midpoint of guidance - raised three times this year.

This assumes ~20% use of third-party transport, consistent with previous quarters and management’s targets. Any deviation would impact the math.

I am very positive on the company and look forward to what FY26 brings. Probably going to be great.
https://t.co/FThbpSovjv

I still consider the stock a steal at today's price.



🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap, and I don’t say that often.

Financials are strong. Growth is strong. Multiples are reasonable. And we’re set up for a Q4 beat.

Here’s why $TMDX will go higher, why they’ll likely beat FY expectations and why it is one of the best buy on the market 👇

Quarter flight numbers so far.
🔹October: 773 flights → 24.9 per day
🔹November to date: 317 flights → 26.4 per day
🔹Q4 to date: 1,090 flights → 25.3 per day

As of today, not even halfway through Q4, $TMDX has generated around $74.4M in revenue, roughly half of what’s needed to hit the low end of its FY guidance - which has already been raised three times this year.

This comes after just 43 days, with 49 days left in the quarter.

At the current pace of 25.3 flights per day, they’re on track for.

≈ 2,330 flights total in Q4
≈ $159M in revenue

That would push FY25 revenue toward the high end of their guidance without any acceleration in flight frequency.

And december is historically the strongest month of the quarter, and the second strongest of the year in terms of transplant activity and flight data for $TMDX.

So if they simply maintain this rhythm, they’ll hit the high end of their  guidance and if flights accelerate - as history suggests, we're up for a beat.

That being said, my calculations aren't perfect, nothing really is, but there are reasons to expect a strong quarter based on today data for $TMDX.

All while the stock trades at its lowest multiples in years, with many bullish catalysts ahead.

🔹 Rapid growth & expanding margins
🔹 Recession proof business model
🔹 Multiple short-term growth verticals
🔹 Strong winter seasonality
🔹 Competition acquirerd 20×+ sales

You'll find everything you need to build your convictions just below 👇

- The Few Bets That Matter
tweet

1 view16:41