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memenodes
crazy high school reunion btw
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crazy high school reunion btw
The final episode of Stranger Things 😭 https://t.co/6fRwg2RZGn tweet
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memenodes
when i accidentally refresh my tl and lose the post i was intrested in https://t.co/0hCDlRF05Z
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when i accidentally refresh my tl and lose the post i was intrested in https://t.co/0hCDlRF05Z
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memenodes
creative ahh? @grok https://t.co/v0t0nc63UU
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creative ahh? @grok https://t.co/v0t0nc63UU
@memenodes Curiosity didn't kill the cat—it just led to some creative AI art. What's the most surprising thing you found? 😏 tweet
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memenodes
Am I really going to spend the rest of my life asking if something is AI or not... https://t.co/eKuNW4AKnT
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Am I really going to spend the rest of my life asking if something is AI or not... https://t.co/eKuNW4AKnT
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Late Bull Prices But Early Bear Behavior
This chart is a reminder that the stock market and the real economy rarely move in sync. Markets tend to sniff things out early, rotate quietly, and only later does the headline economy catch up. That’s why, in the 2007 example shown here, banks topped first, then consumers rolled, then the broad S&P peaked… and commodities didn’t peak until much later. Cycles don’t usually end with one dramatic event. They end with leadership narrowing, stress moving around the system, and “it’s fine” slowly turning into “wait… why does everything suddenly feel tighter?”
From a sector perspective, the message is straightforward. Early in a cycle, you want exposure to areas that benefit from expanding credit and rising confidence. Late in a cycle, leadership drifts toward defense and real assets. Energy and commodities can look strong late not because growth is great, but because inflation and scarcity fears show up before recession does. Eventually, leadership tends to rotate toward staples, healthcare, utilities and finally true safe havens, when people stop debating risk and start pricing it.
A Tired Consumer, A Floating Market And The Early Cracks Beneath the Surface
Michigan sentiment is down around 52.9 and Conference Board confidence is sitting near 89.1, that’s not a signal of a healthy consumer even if spending hasn’t collapsed yet. Add in rising delinquency pressure (credit cards around 2.98% at 30+ days, auto delinquencies near 5% at 90+ days, and student loan stress building), and the picture becomes clearer. The consumer isn’t dead, but they’re tired. People are paying more just to stand still, and the margin for error is thin. This is the kind of environment where the economy can look okay in aggregate, but it’s being held together by the households and balance sheets that still have room to breathe.
Now layer in the leading indicators. A falling LEI, like the roughly -0.3% print in September 2025, is usually the economy whispering before it speaks. Payroll growth slowing to around +64k in November while unemployment drifts toward 4.6% is classic late cycle texture. Not an immediate crash but more like the air slowly coming out of the tire. With the Sahm Rule at 0.43%, just 0.07 points from the trigger, it’s flashing a warning light. Historically, this is what the early phase of labor market deterioration looks like, not the end of it.
Here’s why this phase feels so confusing. Risk assets can stay buoyant because liquidity expectations rise as growth expectations fall. If the Fed is stepping in with something like $40B per month in T-bill purchases to ease funding stress, that’s a quiet acknowledgment that plumbing matters again. And when large structural flows are lining up in global bond markets like the potential unwinding of long dated European bonds by Dutch pensions, conditions can tighten without a single scary headline. Liquidity is a mood. When it’s good, it’s called resilience. When it turns, it’s called contagion.
The surge we’re seeing in gold and silver fits right into this story. This is people buying insurance against policy limits and credibility risk. When metals behave this way while equity indices are still levitating, it usually means the market is split. One side is pricing a soft landing and future easing. The other is pricing a system that’s getting more brittle beneath the surface.
Where I Think We Are
Prices still look late bull, but the internals look early bear. Cycles don’t end because everyone panics at once. They end because more and more parts of the economy quietly stop participating and eventually the market notices what’s missing. That’s the moment when record highs stop being proof of strength and start looking like the last stage of denial.
Where are we in the market cycle? 😏 https://t.co/iemoxKK38f - Financelot tweet
Late Bull Prices But Early Bear Behavior
This chart is a reminder that the stock market and the real economy rarely move in sync. Markets tend to sniff things out early, rotate quietly, and only later does the headline economy catch up. That’s why, in the 2007 example shown here, banks topped first, then consumers rolled, then the broad S&P peaked… and commodities didn’t peak until much later. Cycles don’t usually end with one dramatic event. They end with leadership narrowing, stress moving around the system, and “it’s fine” slowly turning into “wait… why does everything suddenly feel tighter?”
From a sector perspective, the message is straightforward. Early in a cycle, you want exposure to areas that benefit from expanding credit and rising confidence. Late in a cycle, leadership drifts toward defense and real assets. Energy and commodities can look strong late not because growth is great, but because inflation and scarcity fears show up before recession does. Eventually, leadership tends to rotate toward staples, healthcare, utilities and finally true safe havens, when people stop debating risk and start pricing it.
A Tired Consumer, A Floating Market And The Early Cracks Beneath the Surface
Michigan sentiment is down around 52.9 and Conference Board confidence is sitting near 89.1, that’s not a signal of a healthy consumer even if spending hasn’t collapsed yet. Add in rising delinquency pressure (credit cards around 2.98% at 30+ days, auto delinquencies near 5% at 90+ days, and student loan stress building), and the picture becomes clearer. The consumer isn’t dead, but they’re tired. People are paying more just to stand still, and the margin for error is thin. This is the kind of environment where the economy can look okay in aggregate, but it’s being held together by the households and balance sheets that still have room to breathe.
Now layer in the leading indicators. A falling LEI, like the roughly -0.3% print in September 2025, is usually the economy whispering before it speaks. Payroll growth slowing to around +64k in November while unemployment drifts toward 4.6% is classic late cycle texture. Not an immediate crash but more like the air slowly coming out of the tire. With the Sahm Rule at 0.43%, just 0.07 points from the trigger, it’s flashing a warning light. Historically, this is what the early phase of labor market deterioration looks like, not the end of it.
Here’s why this phase feels so confusing. Risk assets can stay buoyant because liquidity expectations rise as growth expectations fall. If the Fed is stepping in with something like $40B per month in T-bill purchases to ease funding stress, that’s a quiet acknowledgment that plumbing matters again. And when large structural flows are lining up in global bond markets like the potential unwinding of long dated European bonds by Dutch pensions, conditions can tighten without a single scary headline. Liquidity is a mood. When it’s good, it’s called resilience. When it turns, it’s called contagion.
The surge we’re seeing in gold and silver fits right into this story. This is people buying insurance against policy limits and credibility risk. When metals behave this way while equity indices are still levitating, it usually means the market is split. One side is pricing a soft landing and future easing. The other is pricing a system that’s getting more brittle beneath the surface.
Where I Think We Are
Prices still look late bull, but the internals look early bear. Cycles don’t end because everyone panics at once. They end because more and more parts of the economy quietly stop participating and eventually the market notices what’s missing. That’s the moment when record highs stop being proof of strength and start looking like the last stage of denial.
Where are we in the market cycle? 😏 https://t.co/iemoxKK38f - Financelot tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Learn a trade and start your own business or get into Healthcare. Both will be in short supply as boomer generation retires and the aging population increases dramatically.
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Learn a trade and start your own business or get into Healthcare. Both will be in short supply as boomer generation retires and the aging population increases dramatically.
Best paying college degrees. Look at those unemployment rates https://t.co/ppSpJ1yYNw tweet