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Quiver Quantitative
UPDATE: Representative Dave Min has signed the discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/iDqYAvoq8X
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UPDATE: Representative Dave Min has signed the discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/iDqYAvoq8X
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Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
RT @patientinvestt: If you invested $10k in PayPal 5 years ago, you would have $2.5k today!
$PYPL https://t.co/8MiSfvpsMo
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RT @patientinvestt: If you invested $10k in PayPal 5 years ago, you would have $2.5k today!
$PYPL https://t.co/8MiSfvpsMo
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Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
The Office Vacancy Problem Just Hit Your Starbucks Morning Coffee
This is signpost about where the U.S. economy is right now. Starbucks isn’t closing hundreds of stores because people stopped drinking coffee. They’re doing it because the math around where people spend time, how they work, and what downtown foot traffic looks like has quietly changed.
The office data is the backdrop nobody can ignore with national office vacancy has been sitting around 20.7%, a multi decade high, and major cities are even worse…think San Francisco roughly 28–35%, Los Angeles 25–32%, NYC pockets in the high teens to 20s, Houston 25–26%, Phoenix 28%, with other big metros hovering in the teens to 20s. That’s not an abstract real estate stats, that’s fewer people in the buildings, fewer lunch breaks, fewer grab a coffee on the way in, fewer afternoon runs, and fewer reliable weekday spikes. When the customer base in a dense corridor drops or shifts to two or three office days a week, a store that used to print money suddenly becomes a thin margin lease with high labor and high fixed costs.
Layer that onto the consumer side and it makes even more sense. People are still spending, but they’re more selective. The casual, habitual splurge only works when budgets feel loose. When costs rise everywhere else like in housing, insurance, groceries people start questioning the $7 coffee more often. They don’t quit entirely; they just trim frequency, trade down, and get pickier about value.
So Starbucks is doing what any rational operator does in this environment which is cut the locations that depended on five day a week downtown density, and pivot toward formats that match how people live now with drive thru, pickup, and suburban and residential convenience. That’s why this is a signpost because it’s not just a coffee story. It’s remote work, urban demand reset, cost inflation and consumer trade offs showing up in one very visible corporate decision.
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The Office Vacancy Problem Just Hit Your Starbucks Morning Coffee
This is signpost about where the U.S. economy is right now. Starbucks isn’t closing hundreds of stores because people stopped drinking coffee. They’re doing it because the math around where people spend time, how they work, and what downtown foot traffic looks like has quietly changed.
The office data is the backdrop nobody can ignore with national office vacancy has been sitting around 20.7%, a multi decade high, and major cities are even worse…think San Francisco roughly 28–35%, Los Angeles 25–32%, NYC pockets in the high teens to 20s, Houston 25–26%, Phoenix 28%, with other big metros hovering in the teens to 20s. That’s not an abstract real estate stats, that’s fewer people in the buildings, fewer lunch breaks, fewer grab a coffee on the way in, fewer afternoon runs, and fewer reliable weekday spikes. When the customer base in a dense corridor drops or shifts to two or three office days a week, a store that used to print money suddenly becomes a thin margin lease with high labor and high fixed costs.
Layer that onto the consumer side and it makes even more sense. People are still spending, but they’re more selective. The casual, habitual splurge only works when budgets feel loose. When costs rise everywhere else like in housing, insurance, groceries people start questioning the $7 coffee more often. They don’t quit entirely; they just trim frequency, trade down, and get pickier about value.
So Starbucks is doing what any rational operator does in this environment which is cut the locations that depended on five day a week downtown density, and pivot toward formats that match how people live now with drive thru, pickup, and suburban and residential convenience. That’s why this is a signpost because it’s not just a coffee story. It’s remote work, urban demand reset, cost inflation and consumer trade offs showing up in one very visible corporate decision.
Starbucks plans to close about 400 locations, its largest closure plan on record
#MacroEdge tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Howard Marks on Gold $GLD 💵
“People who bought gold a year ago have made a ton of money… but if you bought gold at the end of 2010, you’ve earned about a 7.7% annual return. If you bought the S&P at the same time, you’ve earned about 12.7%.
It’s not that gold is a disaster — but you shouldn’t be 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙚𝙙 by the gains of the last month. It’s been a 𝙡𝙖𝙘𝙠𝙡𝙪𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙞𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩.”
Source: The Investor’s Podcast Network (episode posted ~2 weeks ago)
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Howard Marks on Gold $GLD 💵
“People who bought gold a year ago have made a ton of money… but if you bought gold at the end of 2010, you’ve earned about a 7.7% annual return. If you bought the S&P at the same time, you’ve earned about 12.7%.
It’s not that gold is a disaster — but you shouldn’t be 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙚𝙙 by the gains of the last month. It’s been a 𝙡𝙖𝙘𝙠𝙡𝙪𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙞𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩.”
Source: The Investor’s Podcast Network (episode posted ~2 weeks ago)
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Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Who will be the largest company by market cap in 2027?
Current Market Caps:
Nvidia: $4.6T
Apple: $4.1T
Google: $3.8T
Microsoft: $3.6T
Amazon: $2.5T
Meta: $1.7T
Tesla: $1.5T
$NVDA $AAPL $GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN $META $TSLA https://t.co/tZLCZPE6j8
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Who will be the largest company by market cap in 2027?
Current Market Caps:
Nvidia: $4.6T
Apple: $4.1T
Google: $3.8T
Microsoft: $3.6T
Amazon: $2.5T
Meta: $1.7T
Tesla: $1.5T
$NVDA $AAPL $GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN $META $TSLA https://t.co/tZLCZPE6j8
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
Meta just bought Manus.
An AI agent business doing ~$125M ARR.
• Subscription revenue
• 147T tokens processed to date
• Distribution via FB / IG / WhatsApp
$META buys distribution + monetization in one move. https://t.co/g6SBW4tQJo
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Meta just bought Manus.
An AI agent business doing ~$125M ARR.
• Subscription revenue
• 147T tokens processed to date
• Distribution via FB / IG / WhatsApp
$META buys distribution + monetization in one move. https://t.co/g6SBW4tQJo
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
https://t.co/hLznBSlmvA
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https://t.co/hLznBSlmvA
BREAKING: 🇯🇵 Japan set to record less than 670,000 births in 2025, worse than government's most pessimistic forecasts and the lowest since records began in 1899. tweet
AkhenOsiris
RT @TMTLongShort: The world is going to split into four buckets:
A) developed economies who are well positioned to leverage AI to drive productivity.
Their share of global GDP is about to explode.
This includes the U.S., China, Japan, Germany and South Korea.
B) developed economies which over-earn and over-consume relative to their potential primarily by virtue of their adjacency and inclusion in networks of legacy trade systems.
They are fucked.
This includes Spain, Greece, the UK, and France.
C) emerging economies who are geographically blessed with commodities needed to fuel the ramp of robotics.
They will see incredible benefits.
This includes Argentina, Gulf States, Brazil, Chile, and even Mexico.
D) emerging economies which benefited from labor arbitrage but aren’t geographically blessed.
They are fucked.
This includes India and much of Africa and Asia.
Wide tails but it’s an interesting matrix to play around with in your head as you read substacks like Dwarkesh’s and ponder a world of AGI and robots building more robots.
tweet
RT @TMTLongShort: The world is going to split into four buckets:
A) developed economies who are well positioned to leverage AI to drive productivity.
Their share of global GDP is about to explode.
This includes the U.S., China, Japan, Germany and South Korea.
B) developed economies which over-earn and over-consume relative to their potential primarily by virtue of their adjacency and inclusion in networks of legacy trade systems.
They are fucked.
This includes Spain, Greece, the UK, and France.
C) emerging economies who are geographically blessed with commodities needed to fuel the ramp of robotics.
They will see incredible benefits.
This includes Argentina, Gulf States, Brazil, Chile, and even Mexico.
D) emerging economies which benefited from labor arbitrage but aren’t geographically blessed.
They are fucked.
This includes India and much of Africa and Asia.
Wide tails but it’s an interesting matrix to play around with in your head as you read substacks like Dwarkesh’s and ponder a world of AGI and robots building more robots.
tweet