Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
Japan Didn’t Hike to Tighten It Hiked to Avoid Losing Control
This is Japan acknowledging something it hasn’t been able to say for most of the last 30 years which is wages are rising, companies are actually passing costs through, and inflation looks stickier than a temporary FX or energy shock. When you finally get a real wage price loop, staying at emergency era rates starts to create more risk than moving away from them. The BoJ is choosing to normalize carefully now, while it still has control, rather than wait until the yen or inflation expectations force its hand.
The yen tells you how fragile that confidence still is. Sitting around 157, it’s basically the market saying, “We hear you, but one hike doesn’t fix rate differentials or Japan’s fiscal math.” That’s why you also hear government officials stressing debt service, the neutral rate, and the need to watch the outlook. They’re not contradicting the BoJ, they’re quietly reminding everyone that normalization has limits.
Why This Matters Outside Japan
The immediate impact isn’t about Japan slowing its own economy. It’s about funding. The yen has been the world’s cheapest source of leverage for years, and Japan has been a steady buyer of global bonds. When rates rise, even modestly, that cushion thins. Carry trades get less forgiving, hedging costs go up, and global markets get choppier especially in FX and rates.
The next layer is more subtle. Higher Japanese yields and higher hedging costs can keep U.S. and European long rates from falling much, even as growth weakens. That’s a form of tightening that doesn’t come from the Fed, but it still hits credit, refinancing, and risk assets. You tend to see the stress show up first in levered credit, emerging markets, and long duration trades that depend on calm funding conditions.
If the World Slips Into Recession
This is where the setup gets uncomfortable. In a real risk off move, the yen doesn’t stay a funding currency, it often flips into a safe haven. When that happens, carry trades don’t unwind slowly; they snap. The BoJ might pause later if growth cracks, but the bigger change doesn’t go away…Japan is no longer a permanent zero rate anchor, and global leverage has to adjust to that reality.
What I’m Watching
I’m less focused on the first reaction and more on the follow through. Does USDJPY keep drifting, or does it start to move with volatility? Do hedging costs and cross currency basis tighten? How do JGB 10s and 30s behave, and does the government quietly adjust issuance to calm the long end? And most importantly, do credit spreads start to widen as rates stay sticky while growth fades?
That’s where you find out whether this was just a symbolic step or the beginning of a real shift in the global funding backdrop.
tweet
Japan Didn’t Hike to Tighten It Hiked to Avoid Losing Control
This is Japan acknowledging something it hasn’t been able to say for most of the last 30 years which is wages are rising, companies are actually passing costs through, and inflation looks stickier than a temporary FX or energy shock. When you finally get a real wage price loop, staying at emergency era rates starts to create more risk than moving away from them. The BoJ is choosing to normalize carefully now, while it still has control, rather than wait until the yen or inflation expectations force its hand.
The yen tells you how fragile that confidence still is. Sitting around 157, it’s basically the market saying, “We hear you, but one hike doesn’t fix rate differentials or Japan’s fiscal math.” That’s why you also hear government officials stressing debt service, the neutral rate, and the need to watch the outlook. They’re not contradicting the BoJ, they’re quietly reminding everyone that normalization has limits.
Why This Matters Outside Japan
The immediate impact isn’t about Japan slowing its own economy. It’s about funding. The yen has been the world’s cheapest source of leverage for years, and Japan has been a steady buyer of global bonds. When rates rise, even modestly, that cushion thins. Carry trades get less forgiving, hedging costs go up, and global markets get choppier especially in FX and rates.
The next layer is more subtle. Higher Japanese yields and higher hedging costs can keep U.S. and European long rates from falling much, even as growth weakens. That’s a form of tightening that doesn’t come from the Fed, but it still hits credit, refinancing, and risk assets. You tend to see the stress show up first in levered credit, emerging markets, and long duration trades that depend on calm funding conditions.
If the World Slips Into Recession
This is where the setup gets uncomfortable. In a real risk off move, the yen doesn’t stay a funding currency, it often flips into a safe haven. When that happens, carry trades don’t unwind slowly; they snap. The BoJ might pause later if growth cracks, but the bigger change doesn’t go away…Japan is no longer a permanent zero rate anchor, and global leverage has to adjust to that reality.
What I’m Watching
I’m less focused on the first reaction and more on the follow through. Does USDJPY keep drifting, or does it start to move with volatility? Do hedging costs and cross currency basis tighten? How do JGB 10s and 30s behave, and does the government quietly adjust issuance to calm the long end? And most importantly, do credit spreads start to widen as rates stay sticky while growth fades?
That’s where you find out whether this was just a symbolic step or the beginning of a real shift in the global funding backdrop.
JUST IN 🚨: Bank of Japan hikes rate to highest level in 30 years 📈🤯 tweet
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
$MU Micron is officially sold out.
It’s the "most significant disconnect between supply and demand" in 25 years.
• HBM sold out for 2026
• Rationing for key customers
• Guidance shattered by $4B+
Full breakdown & what comes next:
https://t.co/IGuMhE7XYL
tweet
$MU Micron is officially sold out.
It’s the "most significant disconnect between supply and demand" in 25 years.
• HBM sold out for 2026
• Rationing for key customers
• Guidance shattered by $4B+
Full breakdown & what comes next:
https://t.co/IGuMhE7XYL
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
$NKE is a textbook example of why you do not buy downtrends.
The narrative was “the brand will never die.”
Maybe it won’t. That does not mean the stock is a buy.
This stock is "an obvious buy" since more than a year ago. Things only got worse since.
You don’t know the future.
You don’t know if your thesis - which is only speculation, will be right.
You don’t know what can happen next.
So. You. Don't. Buy.
If $NKE is truly a turnaround story, it won’t happen in a day. It will take months, maybe years, to develop. Let the data confirm your thesis. Let price action confirm market appetite.
That's. When. You. Buy.
Until then, your bull case is just an opinion.
And opinions don’t make money.
tweet
$NKE is a textbook example of why you do not buy downtrends.
The narrative was “the brand will never die.”
Maybe it won’t. That does not mean the stock is a buy.
This stock is "an obvious buy" since more than a year ago. Things only got worse since.
You don’t know the future.
You don’t know if your thesis - which is only speculation, will be right.
You don’t know what can happen next.
So. You. Don't. Buy.
If $NKE is truly a turnaround story, it won’t happen in a day. It will take months, maybe years, to develop. Let the data confirm your thesis. Let price action confirm market appetite.
That's. When. You. Buy.
Until then, your bull case is just an opinion.
And opinions don’t make money.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
$NBIS is the best AI infrastructure platform outside the hyperscalers. No debate here.
Best compute quality, best pricing, a frictionless environment and availability in every critical geography.
On acquisition... Dan should listen more to management interviews. This is a team driven by conviction and ambition. They are not here to sell. They're here to compete.
Their benchmark isn’t $CRWV. It’s $MSFT and $GOOG.
They’re building to become the new compute standard.
tweet
$NBIS is the best AI infrastructure platform outside the hyperscalers. No debate here.
Best compute quality, best pricing, a frictionless environment and availability in every critical geography.
On acquisition... Dan should listen more to management interviews. This is a team driven by conviction and ambition. They are not here to sell. They're here to compete.
Their benchmark isn’t $CRWV. It’s $MSFT and $GOOG.
They’re building to become the new compute standard.
Top 10 Tech Predictions for 2026 🍿🐂🏆🔥👇📱 https://t.co/ckEEJCyUuT tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
RT @StockMKTNewz: Here's how much revenue Nike $NKE has brought in every quarter over the last decade
Q3 2015: $7.7B
Q3 2025: $12.4B https://t.co/NDlxV7SY6Y
tweet
RT @StockMKTNewz: Here's how much revenue Nike $NKE has brought in every quarter over the last decade
Q3 2015: $7.7B
Q3 2025: $12.4B https://t.co/NDlxV7SY6Y
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
$NKE comments say it all.
China continues to stand out as one of the most powerful long-term opportunities in sport. That has not changed.
For $ONON & $LULU. Not for them.
tweet
$NKE comments say it all.
China continues to stand out as one of the most powerful long-term opportunities in sport. That has not changed.
For $ONON & $LULU. Not for them.
$NKE is a textbook example of why you do not buy downtrends.
The narrative was “the brand will never die.”
Maybe it won’t. That does not mean the stock is a buy.
This stock is "an obvious buy" since more than a year ago. Things only got worse since.
You don’t know the future.
You don’t know if your thesis - which is only speculation, will be right.
You don’t know what can happen next.
So. You. Don't. Buy.
If $NKE is truly a turnaround story, it won’t happen in a day. It will take months, maybe years, to develop. Let the data confirm your thesis. Let price action confirm market appetite.
That's. When. You. Buy.
Until then, your bull case is just an opinion.
And opinions don’t make money. tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
Inside the NAR Existing Home Sales Report: A Market That’s Paused, Not Recovering
Existing home sales ticked up 0.5% in November, prices are still up year over year, and inventory technically fell month to month. If you stop there, it sounds like housing is stabilizing.
But once you slow down and actually read the report, the story changes. This wasn’t a demand resurgence. It was a thin, rate sensitive bounce layered on top of a market that’s still grinding sideways with weakening momentum.
Total existing home sales are running at about 4.13 million SAAR, which is barely above the post 2022 lows and still far below pre hike norms. In real terms, activity is stuck. November didn’t break the range, it just nudged the top of it.
Prices Aren’t Rising They’re Being Supported
The median existing home price is $409,200, up 1.2% YoY, marking the 29th straight year over year increase. That sounds strong until you look at how it’s happening.
Sales are falling hardest at the low end. Homes under $250k are down sharply YoY, while the $1M+ category is the only segment showing growth. That mix shift alone props up the median. It’s not broad pricing power, its composition.
This is classic late cycle housing behavior where affordability gets crushed, first time buyers step back, and the median price stays elevated because only higher income buyers can transact.
Inventory Is Still Tight, but Cracking in the Wrong Places
Headline inventory fell 5.9% month over month, landing at 1.43 million units, or 4.2 months of supply. NAR frames this as sellers hunkering down.
When inventory stalls because sellers won’t list, not because buyers are clearing homes, it tells you liquidity is freezing. The regional data shows inventory is still building year over year in many areas even as sales struggle to absorb it, especially outside the South.
Who’s Still Buying (And Who Isn’t)
First time buyers are stuck at 30% of sales, unchanged from last year and below where they should be in a healthy cycle. Meanwhile…
• Cash sales are still elevated
• Investor/second home buyers are rising again
•Days on market are creeping higher
That combination says affordability is doing the rationing, not confidence. Demand hasn’t disappeared, but it’s increasingly limited to buyers who don’t need a mortgage or can absorb today’s rates.
Where We Are in the Housing Cycle
This looks exactly like a late lag housing slowdown, not an early recovery.
Rates peaked long ago. Transactions already collapsed. Now prices are holding because supply is artificially constrained and forced selling is still low. That’s normal before labor market stress shows up.
Historically, housing doesn’t break on rate hikes, it breaks when jobs soften and credit tightens at the same time. We’re not fully there yet, but the leading indicators are lining up.
What Comes Next
Here’s the part I’m most confident about…
• Sales stay range bound or drift lower unless mortgage rates fall meaningfully, not just 25–50 bps.
• Price growth continues to slow, with real (inflation adjusted) prices already falling in many regions.
•Downside risk concentrates in the lower and middle tiers, where affordability is most stretched.
•If unemployment rises in 2026, inventory unlocks fast, and price pressure shows up with a lag.
This report doesn’t say housing is strong. It says housing is paused, propped up by lock in effects, skewed buyers, and the absence of forced selling, conditions that rarely last once the broader economy turns.
My View
The November bump isn’t a turn. It’s a reminder that housing is a lagging indicator pretending to be stable.
Momentum is fading beneath the surface, affordability is doing the damage quietly, and the market is increasingly dependent on rates and labor staying cooperative at the same time.
That’s not a crash call but it’s not a recovery either.
tweet
Inside the NAR Existing Home Sales Report: A Market That’s Paused, Not Recovering
Existing home sales ticked up 0.5% in November, prices are still up year over year, and inventory technically fell month to month. If you stop there, it sounds like housing is stabilizing.
But once you slow down and actually read the report, the story changes. This wasn’t a demand resurgence. It was a thin, rate sensitive bounce layered on top of a market that’s still grinding sideways with weakening momentum.
Total existing home sales are running at about 4.13 million SAAR, which is barely above the post 2022 lows and still far below pre hike norms. In real terms, activity is stuck. November didn’t break the range, it just nudged the top of it.
Prices Aren’t Rising They’re Being Supported
The median existing home price is $409,200, up 1.2% YoY, marking the 29th straight year over year increase. That sounds strong until you look at how it’s happening.
Sales are falling hardest at the low end. Homes under $250k are down sharply YoY, while the $1M+ category is the only segment showing growth. That mix shift alone props up the median. It’s not broad pricing power, its composition.
This is classic late cycle housing behavior where affordability gets crushed, first time buyers step back, and the median price stays elevated because only higher income buyers can transact.
Inventory Is Still Tight, but Cracking in the Wrong Places
Headline inventory fell 5.9% month over month, landing at 1.43 million units, or 4.2 months of supply. NAR frames this as sellers hunkering down.
When inventory stalls because sellers won’t list, not because buyers are clearing homes, it tells you liquidity is freezing. The regional data shows inventory is still building year over year in many areas even as sales struggle to absorb it, especially outside the South.
Who’s Still Buying (And Who Isn’t)
First time buyers are stuck at 30% of sales, unchanged from last year and below where they should be in a healthy cycle. Meanwhile…
• Cash sales are still elevated
• Investor/second home buyers are rising again
•Days on market are creeping higher
That combination says affordability is doing the rationing, not confidence. Demand hasn’t disappeared, but it’s increasingly limited to buyers who don’t need a mortgage or can absorb today’s rates.
Where We Are in the Housing Cycle
This looks exactly like a late lag housing slowdown, not an early recovery.
Rates peaked long ago. Transactions already collapsed. Now prices are holding because supply is artificially constrained and forced selling is still low. That’s normal before labor market stress shows up.
Historically, housing doesn’t break on rate hikes, it breaks when jobs soften and credit tightens at the same time. We’re not fully there yet, but the leading indicators are lining up.
What Comes Next
Here’s the part I’m most confident about…
• Sales stay range bound or drift lower unless mortgage rates fall meaningfully, not just 25–50 bps.
• Price growth continues to slow, with real (inflation adjusted) prices already falling in many regions.
•Downside risk concentrates in the lower and middle tiers, where affordability is most stretched.
•If unemployment rises in 2026, inventory unlocks fast, and price pressure shows up with a lag.
This report doesn’t say housing is strong. It says housing is paused, propped up by lock in effects, skewed buyers, and the absence of forced selling, conditions that rarely last once the broader economy turns.
My View
The November bump isn’t a turn. It’s a reminder that housing is a lagging indicator pretending to be stable.
Momentum is fading beneath the surface, affordability is doing the damage quietly, and the market is increasingly dependent on rates and labor staying cooperative at the same time.
That’s not a crash call but it’s not a recovery either.
tweet