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The Few Bets That Matter
Databricks just dropped strong numbers & another $4B raised, pushing its valuation to $134B.
That almost certainly lifted the value of $NBIS ~30% stake in ClickHouse as well, and that'll only gets better as Databricks heads toward an IPO.
“If the plan was to stay private long term, we wouldn’t have focused on being cash-flow break-even.”
Market's demand for valuable AI companies is still very much alive, it’s just flowing toward those that make a difference.
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Databricks just dropped strong numbers & another $4B raised, pushing its valuation to $134B.
That almost certainly lifted the value of $NBIS ~30% stake in ClickHouse as well, and that'll only gets better as Databricks heads toward an IPO.
“If the plan was to stay private long term, we wouldn’t have focused on being cash-flow break-even.”
Market's demand for valuable AI companies is still very much alive, it’s just flowing toward those that make a difference.
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
⛽️ 📉 https://t.co/vtW4Sv2Hrh
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⛽️ 📉 https://t.co/vtW4Sv2Hrh
https://t.co/pEM00aUmwN tweet
Offshore
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The Few Bets That Matter
🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap again, and I don’t say that often.
Markets are globally anxious and December flights were weaker than expected. They’re trending at 24.2 flights/day, below October–November averages, bringing Q4-25 to ~24.6 flights/day.
If this average holds:
~2,263 flights in Q4-25
$154.4M Q4 revenue
~$599M FY25 revenue
+35.6% YoY growth
~7x P/S
For context, OrganOx, with inferior growth and fundamentals, was acquired at 21x sales. That doesn’t mean $TMDX should trade there, but the gap is undeniable.
One odd data: 12 planes haven’t been used in December. No clear explanation yet why, could be slower transplant demand or maintenance keeping planes grounded, potentially increasing third-party or ground transport usage. I won't model this as I don't know but my assumptions are a floor, not a ceiling.
Bottom line: Even with a softer December, $TMDX can still hit midpoint guidance - guidance that’s been raised three times this year.
Looking ahead to FY26:
• New growth vectors (hearts & lungs)
• International expansion
• Minimal exposure to AI CapEx cycles or recession risk
$TMDX is once again one of the best buys in the market at this price.
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🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap again, and I don’t say that often.
Markets are globally anxious and December flights were weaker than expected. They’re trending at 24.2 flights/day, below October–November averages, bringing Q4-25 to ~24.6 flights/day.
If this average holds:
~2,263 flights in Q4-25
$154.4M Q4 revenue
~$599M FY25 revenue
+35.6% YoY growth
~7x P/S
For context, OrganOx, with inferior growth and fundamentals, was acquired at 21x sales. That doesn’t mean $TMDX should trade there, but the gap is undeniable.
One odd data: 12 planes haven’t been used in December. No clear explanation yet why, could be slower transplant demand or maintenance keeping planes grounded, potentially increasing third-party or ground transport usage. I won't model this as I don't know but my assumptions are a floor, not a ceiling.
Bottom line: Even with a softer December, $TMDX can still hit midpoint guidance - guidance that’s been raised three times this year.
Looking ahead to FY26:
• New growth vectors (hearts & lungs)
• International expansion
• Minimal exposure to AI CapEx cycles or recession risk
$TMDX is once again one of the best buys in the market at this price.
🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap, and I don’t say that often.
Financials are strong. Growth is strong. Multiples are reasonable. And we’re set up for a Q4 beat.
Here’s why $TMDX will go higher, why they’ll likely beat FY expectations and why it is one of the best buy on the market 👇
Quarter flight numbers so far.
🔹October: 773 flights → 24.9 per day
🔹November to date: 317 flights → 26.4 per day
🔹Q4 to date: 1,090 flights → 25.3 per day
As of today, not even halfway through Q4, $TMDX has generated around $74.4M in revenue, roughly half of what’s needed to hit the low end of its FY guidance - which has already been raised three times this year.
This comes after just 43 days, with 49 days left in the quarter.
At the current pace of 25.3 flights per day, they’re on track for.
≈ 2,330 flights total in Q4
≈ $159M in revenue
That would push FY25 revenue toward the high end of their guidance without any acceleration in flight frequency.
And december is historically the strongest month of the quarter, and the second strongest of the year in terms of transplant activity and flight data for $TMDX.
So if they simply maintain this rhythm, they’ll hit the high end of their guidance and if flights accelerate - as history suggests, we're up for a beat.
That being said, my calculations aren't perfect, nothing really is, but there are reasons to expect a strong quarter based on today data for $TMDX.
All while the stock trades at its lowest multiples in years, with many bullish catalysts ahead.
🔹 Rapid growth & expanding margins
🔹 Recession proof business model
🔹 Multiple short-term growth verticals
🔹 Strong winter seasonality
🔹 Competition acquirerd 20×+ sales
You'll find everything you need to build your convictions just below 👇 tweet
Offshore
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The Few Bets That Matter
I wasn't convinced by $PATH because we need to see acceleration to have multiples expansion.
And then this happened.
When data changes, opinions have to change. https://t.co/L57U9CgyOR
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I wasn't convinced by $PATH because we need to see acceleration to have multiples expansion.
And then this happened.
When data changes, opinions have to change. https://t.co/L57U9CgyOR
Finished looking into $PATH: I’m not convinced, mainly due to ARR dollar growth deceleration.
I understand the bull case. But until the data backs it up, I’ll stay out.
That said, $PATH has one of the best chart on the market and reports next week.
Now onto $ZETA. Which one should I check next? tweet
Offshore
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The Few Bets That Matter
🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap again, and I don’t say that often.
Markets are globally anxious and December flights were weaker than expected. They’re trending at 24.2 flights/day, below October–November averages, bringing Q4-25 to ~24.6 flights/day.
If this average holds:
~2,263 flights in Q4-25
$154.4M Q4 revenue
~$599M FY25 revenue
+35.6% YoY growth
~7x P/S
For context, OrganOx, with inferior growth and fundamentals, was acquired at 21x sales. That doesn’t mean $TMDX should trade there, but the gap is undeniable.
One odd data: 12 planes haven’t been used in December. No clear explanation why, could be slower transplant demand or maintenance keeping planes grounded, potentially increasing third-party or ground transports. I won't model this as I don't know but my assumptions are a floor, not a ceiling.
Bottom line: Even with a softer December, $TMDX can still hit midpoint guidance - guidance that’s been raised three times this year.
Looking ahead to FY26:
• New growth vectors (hearts & lungs)
• International expansion
• Minimal exposure to AI CapEx cycles or recession risk
$TMDX is once again one of the best buys in the market at this price.
tweet
🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap again, and I don’t say that often.
Markets are globally anxious and December flights were weaker than expected. They’re trending at 24.2 flights/day, below October–November averages, bringing Q4-25 to ~24.6 flights/day.
If this average holds:
~2,263 flights in Q4-25
$154.4M Q4 revenue
~$599M FY25 revenue
+35.6% YoY growth
~7x P/S
For context, OrganOx, with inferior growth and fundamentals, was acquired at 21x sales. That doesn’t mean $TMDX should trade there, but the gap is undeniable.
One odd data: 12 planes haven’t been used in December. No clear explanation why, could be slower transplant demand or maintenance keeping planes grounded, potentially increasing third-party or ground transports. I won't model this as I don't know but my assumptions are a floor, not a ceiling.
Bottom line: Even with a softer December, $TMDX can still hit midpoint guidance - guidance that’s been raised three times this year.
Looking ahead to FY26:
• New growth vectors (hearts & lungs)
• International expansion
• Minimal exposure to AI CapEx cycles or recession risk
$TMDX is once again one of the best buys in the market at this price.
🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap, and I don’t say that often.
Financials are strong. Growth is strong. Multiples are reasonable. And we’re set up for a Q4 beat.
Here’s why $TMDX will go higher, why they’ll likely beat FY expectations and why it is one of the best buy on the market 👇
Quarter flight numbers so far.
🔹October: 773 flights → 24.9 per day
🔹November to date: 317 flights → 26.4 per day
🔹Q4 to date: 1,090 flights → 25.3 per day
As of today, not even halfway through Q4, $TMDX has generated around $74.4M in revenue, roughly half of what’s needed to hit the low end of its FY guidance - which has already been raised three times this year.
This comes after just 43 days, with 49 days left in the quarter.
At the current pace of 25.3 flights per day, they’re on track for.
≈ 2,330 flights total in Q4
≈ $159M in revenue
That would push FY25 revenue toward the high end of their guidance without any acceleration in flight frequency.
And december is historically the strongest month of the quarter, and the second strongest of the year in terms of transplant activity and flight data for $TMDX.
So if they simply maintain this rhythm, they’ll hit the high end of their guidance and if flights accelerate - as history suggests, we're up for a beat.
That being said, my calculations aren't perfect, nothing really is, but there are reasons to expect a strong quarter based on today data for $TMDX.
All while the stock trades at its lowest multiples in years, with many bullish catalysts ahead.
🔹 Rapid growth & expanding margins
🔹 Recession proof business model
🔹 Multiple short-term growth verticals
🔹 Strong winter seasonality
🔹 Competition acquirerd 20×+ sales
You'll find everything you need to build your convictions just below 👇 tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
4.6% Unemployment and a Labor Market Running on Fumes
Payrolls up are up +64k, unemployment 4.6%, everything changed a little. But changed little since April is doing the heavy lifting. That’s the BLS telling you the job engine has stopped accelerating and is now idling.
The math backs it up. The 3 month average is +22k jobs. That’s not a resilient labor market. That’s stall speed, the kind of pace where almost any shock (policy, credit, energy, geopolitics) can tip the balance.
Where the weakness actually is
The recessionary signals aren’t loud; they’re in the boring tables….
• Underemployment jumped…involuntary part time work rose 900k to 5.5M. Employers cut hours before they cut heads.
• Fresh unemployment is rising…Unemployment under five weeks increased by 316,000 to 2.4 million, an early sign of layoffs or short term contracts ending.
• Long term unemployment remains chunky at 1.9M (about 24% of all unemployed).
• U-6 at 8.7% not a crisis number, but no longer tight.
• Goods side stress shows where it always does: manufacturing soft, temp help shrinking, and transportation and warehousing down 78k since Feb, a real demand tell.
Hiring that is happening is defensive: health care (+46k), construction (+28k), social assistance (+18k). That’s fine, but it’s not broad cyclical growth.
One more quiet tell…multiple jobholders 9.5M (5.8%). In isolation that can be fine; paired with the surge in involuntary part time work, it looks like households patching income gaps.
The good data that can fool you
This month’s read is helped by measurement reality.
• Household survey noise…October wasn’t collected; November had a 64% response rate, weighting adjustments, and effectively reflects a 2 month window. Small moves in the unemployment rate don’t deserve confidence.
• Payroll fog…given a confidence range of roughly 136,000, a 64,000 payroll gain is not statistically meaningful.
• Definitions blur stress…one paid hour, paid leave and severance, or temporary absence still counts as employed. Stress shows up first in hours, part time status, and churn.
• Revisions lean weaker (about -33k combined).
• Model changes ahead (birth and death update in Jan 2026; industry reclassification in 2025) make clean historical analogs harder right when turning points matter.
Layer in the broader macro stress
Zoom out and the labor slowdown is colliding with balance sheet pressure. The Fed has already cut three times in 2025 (to 3.50–3.75%) not from strength, but as stress crept in. Ahead sits a massive refinancing wall: $9–10T in government debt maturing in 2026 and $1.5–1.8T in CRE loans, with office vacancy 18.6% nationally (availability as high as 22.8%).
Households are cracking…auto delinquencies near 5% (subprime 6.6%), credit card serious delinquencies 7%, student loans 9.4% already 90+ days delinquent with only 33% paying on time. Corporate stress follows: 24k+ bankruptcies over the past year, 1.17M job cuts in 2025, claims edging higher.
My Read
This economy is losing altitude. Hiring is narrow, hours are being managed down, temp labor is shrinking, goods linked sectors are weak, underemployment is rising, and credit stress is spreading. Wages still look okay but they usually do until margins crack. If weakness stays contained, expect a slow growth, disinflationary grind. If underemployment sticks and unemployment keeps edging up while refinancing pressure builds, this is how the classic downturn sequence starts…quietly, gradually, and then all at once.
tweet
4.6% Unemployment and a Labor Market Running on Fumes
Payrolls up are up +64k, unemployment 4.6%, everything changed a little. But changed little since April is doing the heavy lifting. That’s the BLS telling you the job engine has stopped accelerating and is now idling.
The math backs it up. The 3 month average is +22k jobs. That’s not a resilient labor market. That’s stall speed, the kind of pace where almost any shock (policy, credit, energy, geopolitics) can tip the balance.
Where the weakness actually is
The recessionary signals aren’t loud; they’re in the boring tables….
• Underemployment jumped…involuntary part time work rose 900k to 5.5M. Employers cut hours before they cut heads.
• Fresh unemployment is rising…Unemployment under five weeks increased by 316,000 to 2.4 million, an early sign of layoffs or short term contracts ending.
• Long term unemployment remains chunky at 1.9M (about 24% of all unemployed).
• U-6 at 8.7% not a crisis number, but no longer tight.
• Goods side stress shows where it always does: manufacturing soft, temp help shrinking, and transportation and warehousing down 78k since Feb, a real demand tell.
Hiring that is happening is defensive: health care (+46k), construction (+28k), social assistance (+18k). That’s fine, but it’s not broad cyclical growth.
One more quiet tell…multiple jobholders 9.5M (5.8%). In isolation that can be fine; paired with the surge in involuntary part time work, it looks like households patching income gaps.
The good data that can fool you
This month’s read is helped by measurement reality.
• Household survey noise…October wasn’t collected; November had a 64% response rate, weighting adjustments, and effectively reflects a 2 month window. Small moves in the unemployment rate don’t deserve confidence.
• Payroll fog…given a confidence range of roughly 136,000, a 64,000 payroll gain is not statistically meaningful.
• Definitions blur stress…one paid hour, paid leave and severance, or temporary absence still counts as employed. Stress shows up first in hours, part time status, and churn.
• Revisions lean weaker (about -33k combined).
• Model changes ahead (birth and death update in Jan 2026; industry reclassification in 2025) make clean historical analogs harder right when turning points matter.
Layer in the broader macro stress
Zoom out and the labor slowdown is colliding with balance sheet pressure. The Fed has already cut three times in 2025 (to 3.50–3.75%) not from strength, but as stress crept in. Ahead sits a massive refinancing wall: $9–10T in government debt maturing in 2026 and $1.5–1.8T in CRE loans, with office vacancy 18.6% nationally (availability as high as 22.8%).
Households are cracking…auto delinquencies near 5% (subprime 6.6%), credit card serious delinquencies 7%, student loans 9.4% already 90+ days delinquent with only 33% paying on time. Corporate stress follows: 24k+ bankruptcies over the past year, 1.17M job cuts in 2025, claims edging higher.
My Read
This economy is losing altitude. Hiring is narrow, hours are being managed down, temp labor is shrinking, goods linked sectors are weak, underemployment is rising, and credit stress is spreading. Wages still look okay but they usually do until margins crack. If weakness stays contained, expect a slow growth, disinflationary grind. If underemployment sticks and unemployment keeps edging up while refinancing pressure builds, this is how the classic downturn sequence starts…quietly, gradually, and then all at once.
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App Economy Insights
🏥 The Biggest IPO of 2025 is here.
Medline seeks a $55B valuation.
$MDLN is a healthcare supply giant:
• Vertically integrated model.
• 98% retention (Prime Vendor).
• $25B+ in FY24 revenue (+10% Y/Y).
Here's what we learned from the S-1.
https://t.co/H3GFKdaAJQ
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🏥 The Biggest IPO of 2025 is here.
Medline seeks a $55B valuation.
$MDLN is a healthcare supply giant:
• Vertically integrated model.
• 98% retention (Prime Vendor).
• $25B+ in FY24 revenue (+10% Y/Y).
Here's what we learned from the S-1.
https://t.co/H3GFKdaAJQ
tweet
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Fiscal.ai
Shares of South Korean e-commerce giant Coupang are now down 31% over the last 3 months following a large data breach.
$CPNG https://t.co/8C3ymd1exB
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Shares of South Korean e-commerce giant Coupang are now down 31% over the last 3 months following a large data breach.
$CPNG https://t.co/8C3ymd1exB
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