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When you used the money to buy the dip instead of taking your girlfriend to vacation https://t.co/DTtRPJUNke
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When you used the money to buy the dip instead of taking your girlfriend to vacation https://t.co/DTtRPJUNke
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Rebuilding Deterrence In An Aging Europe And Germany’s Quiet Pivot
Germany is closing a vulnerability it can’t afford to leave open anymore. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered the idea that Europe could rely forever on deterrence by reputation and automatic U.S. backstopping. Since then, Berlin has treated defense as a real constraint again. Enlistment incentives are rising, a €100 billion special fund jump started procurement, spending is being pushed higher even against Germany’s traditional fiscal limits, and the target is real readiness before the end of the decade. Rheinmetall expanding 13 arms factories across Europe is an admission that industrial capacity, not intent, is now the bottleneck.
Alongside that is a quieter but telling shift in manpower policy. Germany isn’t introducing a full draft, but it is moving toward a conscription lite system with mandatory assessments and medical screenings for 18 year old men, voluntary service first, and a draft only as a last resort fallback. That’s less about forcing people into uniform today and more about rebuilding visibility into who could serve tomorrow, something Germany lost when conscription ended in 2011.
The deeper constraint
All of this sits on top of a demographic squeeze that doesn’t make headlines but shapes everything. Germany’s workforce is shrinking and aging, slowing growth and locking more public money into pensions and healthcare. That doesn’t cause war, but it tightens the balance sheet and shortens the runway for long, open ended strategies. You can see the adaptation in what Germany is prioritizing including ammunition, automation, drones, ISR, air defense…systems that substitute capital, technology, and scale for scarce manpower.
Why this matters now
Aging societies don’t want wars of attrition. They’re casualty averse and politically cautious. But that same pressure can compress decision timelines. When leaders believe their industrial base, demographics, or alliance guarantees may look weaker later, the incentive shifts toward rebuilding deterrence quickly and signaling resolve early. That’s the tension here. Germany’s rearmament doesn’t scream expansion. It whispers urgency, deter while the window is still open, because rebuilding factories is hard, and rebuilding readiness after they’re needed is harder.
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Rebuilding Deterrence In An Aging Europe And Germany’s Quiet Pivot
Germany is closing a vulnerability it can’t afford to leave open anymore. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered the idea that Europe could rely forever on deterrence by reputation and automatic U.S. backstopping. Since then, Berlin has treated defense as a real constraint again. Enlistment incentives are rising, a €100 billion special fund jump started procurement, spending is being pushed higher even against Germany’s traditional fiscal limits, and the target is real readiness before the end of the decade. Rheinmetall expanding 13 arms factories across Europe is an admission that industrial capacity, not intent, is now the bottleneck.
Alongside that is a quieter but telling shift in manpower policy. Germany isn’t introducing a full draft, but it is moving toward a conscription lite system with mandatory assessments and medical screenings for 18 year old men, voluntary service first, and a draft only as a last resort fallback. That’s less about forcing people into uniform today and more about rebuilding visibility into who could serve tomorrow, something Germany lost when conscription ended in 2011.
The deeper constraint
All of this sits on top of a demographic squeeze that doesn’t make headlines but shapes everything. Germany’s workforce is shrinking and aging, slowing growth and locking more public money into pensions and healthcare. That doesn’t cause war, but it tightens the balance sheet and shortens the runway for long, open ended strategies. You can see the adaptation in what Germany is prioritizing including ammunition, automation, drones, ISR, air defense…systems that substitute capital, technology, and scale for scarce manpower.
Why this matters now
Aging societies don’t want wars of attrition. They’re casualty averse and politically cautious. But that same pressure can compress decision timelines. When leaders believe their industrial base, demographics, or alliance guarantees may look weaker later, the incentive shifts toward rebuilding deterrence quickly and signaling resolve early. That’s the tension here. Germany’s rearmament doesn’t scream expansion. It whispers urgency, deter while the window is still open, because rebuilding factories is hard, and rebuilding readiness after they’re needed is harder.
Germany is now rebuilding its military, and Rheinmetall is building and expanding 13 arms factories across Europe. https://t.co/SL7T9BrDzA https://t.co/xc8XSM2cOg tweet
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EndGame Macro
RT @DiMartinoBooth: CORRECT
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RT @DiMartinoBooth: CORRECT
If the labor market cracks, falling interest rates won’t save housing
If you don’t have a job, you can’t buy a house https://t.co/TwHu8YahQL tweet
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EndGame Macro
When the Math Stops Working, Projects Stop
This isn’t a story about construction being strong or weak. It’s a story about where risk is still allowed to exist. Commercial real estate spending rolled over first and pretty cleanly because it’s the most sensitive to higher rates, refinancing risk, and tighter underwriting. Once the math stopped working, projects quietly stopped getting funded. That’s not panic; that’s discipline returning.
Manufacturing construction looks very different because it’s been living in a protected lane. A lot of that spending is policy driven, subsidized, or tied to long term strategic commitments like reshoring, CHIPS, energy, and defense. Those projects don’t shut down just because rates are high, they were approved for reasons beyond near term ROI.
My View
This is a tight money economy wearing a calm mask. The system is still functioning, but fewer big risks are being taken. You can see it in the skyline with commercial cranes down sharply, lenders and capital partners clearly unwilling to believe the old growth assumptions anymore. Public and institutional spending is stepping in to fill part of the gap, which keeps activity from falling off a cliff but it rarely creates a broad, self reinforcing growth cycle.
Manufacturing can stay elevated for a while even as CRE grinds lower, but if manufacturing construction is now topping too, forward momentum slows. Less backfill, fewer second order jobs, and more pressure on local economies that depended on constant build cycles. Late cycle doesn’t look dramatic, it looks like this where the skyline still moves, but it’s clearly being choosier.
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When the Math Stops Working, Projects Stop
This isn’t a story about construction being strong or weak. It’s a story about where risk is still allowed to exist. Commercial real estate spending rolled over first and pretty cleanly because it’s the most sensitive to higher rates, refinancing risk, and tighter underwriting. Once the math stopped working, projects quietly stopped getting funded. That’s not panic; that’s discipline returning.
Manufacturing construction looks very different because it’s been living in a protected lane. A lot of that spending is policy driven, subsidized, or tied to long term strategic commitments like reshoring, CHIPS, energy, and defense. Those projects don’t shut down just because rates are high, they were approved for reasons beyond near term ROI.
My View
This is a tight money economy wearing a calm mask. The system is still functioning, but fewer big risks are being taken. You can see it in the skyline with commercial cranes down sharply, lenders and capital partners clearly unwilling to believe the old growth assumptions anymore. Public and institutional spending is stepping in to fill part of the gap, which keeps activity from falling off a cliff but it rarely creates a broad, self reinforcing growth cycle.
Manufacturing can stay elevated for a while even as CRE grinds lower, but if manufacturing construction is now topping too, forward momentum slows. Less backfill, fewer second order jobs, and more pressure on local economies that depended on constant build cycles. Late cycle doesn’t look dramatic, it looks like this where the skyline still moves, but it’s clearly being choosier.
Manufacturing & CRE Construction spend peaked over a year ago https://t.co/Y85IYVCPLl tweet
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Me holding my shitcoins while the rest of the market is in shambles https://t.co/W6Sjgyz96W
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Me holding my shitcoins while the rest of the market is in shambles https://t.co/W6Sjgyz96W
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AkhenOsiris
$FLUT $DKNG $SRAD $GENI
Sports betting hold for November is in excess of 11% in reporting states; if that trend holds, it will be one of the highest figures in US history. Handle continues to be robust despite the rise of prediction markets.
H/T @DustinGouker
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$FLUT $DKNG $SRAD $GENI
Sports betting hold for November is in excess of 11% in reporting states; if that trend holds, it will be one of the highest figures in US history. Handle continues to be robust despite the rise of prediction markets.
H/T @DustinGouker
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AkhenOsiris
WSJ:
Chief executives of some of the world’s largest companies are all-in on artificial intelligence, though many haven’t yet seen meaningful returns on their investments.
After a year in which trillions of dollars worth of AI investments buoyed global markets and the economy, 68% of CEOs plan to spend even more on AI in 2026, according to an annual survey of more than 350 public-company CEOs from advisory firm Teneo.
Less than half of current AI projects had generated more in returns than they had cost, respondents said. They reported the most success using AI in marketing and customer service and challenges using it in higher-risk areas such as security, legal and human resources.
Teneo also surveyed about 400 institutional investors, of which 53% expect that AI initiatives would begin to deliver returns on investments within six months. That compares to the 84% of CEOs of large companies—those with revenue of $10 billion or more—who believe it will take more than six months.
Surprisingly, 67% of CEOs believe AI will increase their entry-level head count, while 58% believe AI will increase senior leadership head count.
The survey was conducted from mid-October to mid-November, and CEOs surveyed were from public companies with revenue of $1 billion or more.
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WSJ:
Chief executives of some of the world’s largest companies are all-in on artificial intelligence, though many haven’t yet seen meaningful returns on their investments.
After a year in which trillions of dollars worth of AI investments buoyed global markets and the economy, 68% of CEOs plan to spend even more on AI in 2026, according to an annual survey of more than 350 public-company CEOs from advisory firm Teneo.
Less than half of current AI projects had generated more in returns than they had cost, respondents said. They reported the most success using AI in marketing and customer service and challenges using it in higher-risk areas such as security, legal and human resources.
Teneo also surveyed about 400 institutional investors, of which 53% expect that AI initiatives would begin to deliver returns on investments within six months. That compares to the 84% of CEOs of large companies—those with revenue of $10 billion or more—who believe it will take more than six months.
Surprisingly, 67% of CEOs believe AI will increase their entry-level head count, while 58% believe AI will increase senior leadership head count.
The survey was conducted from mid-October to mid-November, and CEOs surveyed were from public companies with revenue of $1 billion or more.
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AkhenOsiris
$MSFT AI CEO Suleyman in Bloomberg Interview:
Q: Are the first uses of superintelligence going to be in the medical field?
A: I think so. This is probably the most exciting application of superintelligence. We now have systems that can diagnose any rare condition found in the literature, significantly better than human performance, more cheaply, with fewer tests and with higher accuracy. We are putting it through independent peer review at the moment and soon there’ll be clinical trials. So this is very, very, very exciting.
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$MSFT AI CEO Suleyman in Bloomberg Interview:
Q: Are the first uses of superintelligence going to be in the medical field?
A: I think so. This is probably the most exciting application of superintelligence. We now have systems that can diagnose any rare condition found in the literature, significantly better than human performance, more cheaply, with fewer tests and with higher accuracy. We are putting it through independent peer review at the moment and soon there’ll be clinical trials. So this is very, very, very exciting.
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Offshore
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Yes. Yes it is. I’ll let Lacy Hunt break it down… https://t.co/kRCd3qtEO8
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Yes. Yes it is. I’ll let Lacy Hunt break it down… https://t.co/kRCd3qtEO8
*TRUMP: INFLATION 'TOTALLY NEUTRALIZED,' YOU DON'T WANT DEFLATION
*TRUMP: DELFATION IS IN MANY WAYS WORSE THAN INFLATION tweet