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EndGame Macro
When Capital Meets Resistance And The Hidden Slowdown Behind AI’s Buildout
These cancellations don’t show up as one off failures. They build month by month. A few delays in early summer turn into a steady pickup by fall, and by year end it’s clearly accelerating. That’s usually the moment when something stops being project specific and starts becoming structural. Developers don’t pull back in clusters unless the friction they’re facing is persistent and spreading.
What’s important is that this isn’t isolated to one region or one political climate. Projects are being blocked or delayed across the country because of power availability, water strain, zoning fights, noise concerns, shifting tax incentives, and timelines that stretch just long enough to break the financing math. Roughly $64 billion in planned investment has now been stalled or stopped over the last two years because the path from capital to concrete is no longer smooth. Capital is willing. Execution is not.
Why This Is Showing Up Now
When growth feels abundant and money is cheap, communities tolerate disruption and developers get the benefit of the doubt. When households are stretched, utilities are constrained, and financing costs stay elevated, that tolerance disappears fast. Local opposition becomes a quiet but powerful brake. It doesn’t show up in rate cuts or GDP prints, but it slows the economy just as effectively.
What makes this moment stand out is the timing. This resistance is showing up right as the top down narrative around AI infrastructure is peaking. That mismatch of massive enthusiasm at the capital allocation level colliding with real world limits on the ground is usually a warning sign. Permitting delays, lawsuits, and zoning battles become a hidden form of tightening. Growth doesn’t stop. It just takes longer, costs more, and fails more often.
My View
In my opinion this isn’t an AI bust story. It’s a constraint and confidence story. The economy is shifting from expansion to resistance. Even sectors with strong long term demand are now running into hard limits in grid capacity, water systems, local politics, labor availability, and financing math that no longer forgives delays. That’s what late cycle friction looks like.
Nothing here suggests an immediate collapse. But it does say the easy phase of growth is over. Capital can still move, but it has to fight harder at every step. And once projects start dying at the local level, that process rarely reverses quickly. Growth becomes slower, more contested, and far less forgiving long before the headlines catch up.
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When Capital Meets Resistance And The Hidden Slowdown Behind AI’s Buildout
These cancellations don’t show up as one off failures. They build month by month. A few delays in early summer turn into a steady pickup by fall, and by year end it’s clearly accelerating. That’s usually the moment when something stops being project specific and starts becoming structural. Developers don’t pull back in clusters unless the friction they’re facing is persistent and spreading.
What’s important is that this isn’t isolated to one region or one political climate. Projects are being blocked or delayed across the country because of power availability, water strain, zoning fights, noise concerns, shifting tax incentives, and timelines that stretch just long enough to break the financing math. Roughly $64 billion in planned investment has now been stalled or stopped over the last two years because the path from capital to concrete is no longer smooth. Capital is willing. Execution is not.
Why This Is Showing Up Now
When growth feels abundant and money is cheap, communities tolerate disruption and developers get the benefit of the doubt. When households are stretched, utilities are constrained, and financing costs stay elevated, that tolerance disappears fast. Local opposition becomes a quiet but powerful brake. It doesn’t show up in rate cuts or GDP prints, but it slows the economy just as effectively.
What makes this moment stand out is the timing. This resistance is showing up right as the top down narrative around AI infrastructure is peaking. That mismatch of massive enthusiasm at the capital allocation level colliding with real world limits on the ground is usually a warning sign. Permitting delays, lawsuits, and zoning battles become a hidden form of tightening. Growth doesn’t stop. It just takes longer, costs more, and fails more often.
My View
In my opinion this isn’t an AI bust story. It’s a constraint and confidence story. The economy is shifting from expansion to resistance. Even sectors with strong long term demand are now running into hard limits in grid capacity, water systems, local politics, labor availability, and financing math that no longer forgives delays. That’s what late cycle friction looks like.
Nothing here suggests an immediate collapse. But it does say the easy phase of growth is over. Capital can still move, but it has to fight harder at every step. And once projects start dying at the local level, that process rarely reverses quickly. Growth becomes slower, more contested, and far less forgiving long before the headlines catch up.
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