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EndGame Macro
When the Freight Cushion Disappears
This is the Truckload Rejection Index basically the share of loads carriers are turning down even though they’re already under contract. When that number rises, it’s a sign the freight market is tightening and carriers are starting to get picky again.
What stands out here isn’t just the level, it’s the shape. Rejections drifted along for most of the year, then started climbing in the fall, and now they’ve jumped to a new 2025 high around 9.5%. That tells you the system has a lot less slack than it did a few months ago.
Why this is happening
The biggest driver isn’t a sudden demand boom. It’s capacity quietly leaving the market. After a long stretch of weak rates, marginal trucks get parked, small fleets disappear, and carriers stop running lanes that don’t make sense anymore. Everything looks calm until it isn’t.
There’s also a pricing mismatch at work. Contract rates adjust slowly. When spot rates start to firm, carriers reject lower paying contract freight and chase better opportunities. Rejections rise not because freight is exploding, but because leverage is shifting back toward carriers.
Seasonal friction just pours fuel on it. Year end volumes, weather, tighter delivery windows, none of these matter much when capacity is abundant. When it’s tight, every little disruption shows up in the data.
The real test from here
The key question is what happens after the holidays. If rejections fade back down, this was mostly a seasonal squeeze. If they stay elevated, it’s a sign the freight market has moved into a structurally tighter phase, one that feeds through to shipping costs, supply chains, and eventually prices.
This is an early warning that the cushion is thinner than people think.
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When the Freight Cushion Disappears
This is the Truckload Rejection Index basically the share of loads carriers are turning down even though they’re already under contract. When that number rises, it’s a sign the freight market is tightening and carriers are starting to get picky again.
What stands out here isn’t just the level, it’s the shape. Rejections drifted along for most of the year, then started climbing in the fall, and now they’ve jumped to a new 2025 high around 9.5%. That tells you the system has a lot less slack than it did a few months ago.
Why this is happening
The biggest driver isn’t a sudden demand boom. It’s capacity quietly leaving the market. After a long stretch of weak rates, marginal trucks get parked, small fleets disappear, and carriers stop running lanes that don’t make sense anymore. Everything looks calm until it isn’t.
There’s also a pricing mismatch at work. Contract rates adjust slowly. When spot rates start to firm, carriers reject lower paying contract freight and chase better opportunities. Rejections rise not because freight is exploding, but because leverage is shifting back toward carriers.
Seasonal friction just pours fuel on it. Year end volumes, weather, tighter delivery windows, none of these matter much when capacity is abundant. When it’s tight, every little disruption shows up in the data.
The real test from here
The key question is what happens after the holidays. If rejections fade back down, this was mostly a seasonal squeeze. If they stay elevated, it’s a sign the freight market has moved into a structurally tighter phase, one that feeds through to shipping costs, supply chains, and eventually prices.
This is an early warning that the cushion is thinner than people think.
Truckload rejections continue to surge to 9.46%, a new 2025 high.
LFG! https://t.co/gL3kw3KWda tweet
The Few Bets That Matter
$NFLX used to be a compounder with solid growth, tons of cash flow and a huge market left to tap in.
The Warner Bros deal changes the risk profile. A $70B+ acquisition for a $420B company means leverage and execution risk.
It doesn’t mean failure. It means the market prices in risk and won't give the stock its premium anymore.
If anything, this could turn into a great opportunity given how great management has been and the potential of all the IPs.
But it’s going to take time.
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$NFLX used to be a compounder with solid growth, tons of cash flow and a huge market left to tap in.
The Warner Bros deal changes the risk profile. A $70B+ acquisition for a $420B company means leverage and execution risk.
It doesn’t mean failure. It means the market prices in risk and won't give the stock its premium anymore.
If anything, this could turn into a great opportunity given how great management has been and the potential of all the IPs.
But it’s going to take time.
tweet
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$MA derives 60% Rev from its payments network
Just a credit card co? Nope
Other 40% flows from Value-Added Services & Solutions (VASS) — high-margin cyber, analytics, & consulting offerings
Best part: VASS growth accelerated annually since 2021 & on track for ~20% YoY in 2025 https://t.co/q2vUxnx37V
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$MA derives 60% Rev from its payments network
Just a credit card co? Nope
Other 40% flows from Value-Added Services & Solutions (VASS) — high-margin cyber, analytics, & consulting offerings
Best part: VASS growth accelerated annually since 2021 & on track for ~20% YoY in 2025 https://t.co/q2vUxnx37V
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Senator Jon Ossoff has said that there are private conversations to prevent a ban on congressional stock trading. https://t.co/tyZMNSXnvR
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BREAKING: Senator Jon Ossoff has said that there are private conversations to prevent a ban on congressional stock trading. https://t.co/tyZMNSXnvR
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The Few Bets That Matter
Compute providers continue to raise CapEx with $ORCL now planning up to $50B FY26, and $AVGO confirmed that demand for switches & hardware in general are through the roof.
Meanwhile, every actor in the industry confirm that the bottleneck was energy, which can be resolved two ways.
More energy sources or more efficient hardware.
All those points converge to a handful companies selling hardware focused on compute efficiency and optimization, one of them being $ALAB.
And no one talks about this.
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Compute providers continue to raise CapEx with $ORCL now planning up to $50B FY26, and $AVGO confirmed that demand for switches & hardware in general are through the roof.
Meanwhile, every actor in the industry confirm that the bottleneck was energy, which can be resolved two ways.
More energy sources or more efficient hardware.
All those points converge to a handful companies selling hardware focused on compute efficiency and optimization, one of them being $ALAB.
And no one talks about this.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Oracle’s long-term debt has grown at a faster CAGR than its revenue, net income, & free cash flow—a quiet but important divergence
It begs the question: would you feel comfortable owning the entire business?
🤔 $ORCL https://t.co/HaJrf63FRU
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Oracle’s long-term debt has grown at a faster CAGR than its revenue, net income, & free cash flow—a quiet but important divergence
It begs the question: would you feel comfortable owning the entire business?
🤔 $ORCL https://t.co/HaJrf63FRU
BREAKING: Oracle stock, $ORCL, falls over -7% on reports that some of their data centers for OpenAI have been delayed from 2027 to 2028. https://t.co/RIaLaSNgbY tweet
The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: My problem today is that I can find too many great setups in the market.
$TMDX = flawless.
$BTC / $ETH = bottom vibes.
$KWEB & $BABA = textbook retest.
$ALAB & $NBIS = uptrend reclaim.
$SLB & $HAL = ripping new highs.
$LULU & $NKE = breaking out.
& tons of names still below my buy levels.
Can't catch them all.
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RT @WealthyReadings: My problem today is that I can find too many great setups in the market.
$TMDX = flawless.
$BTC / $ETH = bottom vibes.
$KWEB & $BABA = textbook retest.
$ALAB & $NBIS = uptrend reclaim.
$SLB & $HAL = ripping new highs.
$LULU & $NKE = breaking out.
& tons of names still below my buy levels.
Can't catch them all.
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The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: Find broken stocks. Not broken companies.
$LULU https://t.co/XYhgOyRiir
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RT @WealthyReadings: Find broken stocks. Not broken companies.
$LULU https://t.co/XYhgOyRiir
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The Few Bets That Matter
$ORCL pushed back completion of one of its datacenters for OpenAI from 2027 to 2028 because of labor & material shortages.
And management confirmed this delay doesn’t affect their contractual commitments.
The market is reading this new as: “OpenAI is defaulting.”
You need a strong stomach and strong conviction in the markets lately.
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$ORCL pushed back completion of one of its datacenters for OpenAI from 2027 to 2028 because of labor & material shortages.
And management confirmed this delay doesn’t affect their contractual commitments.
The market is reading this new as: “OpenAI is defaulting.”
You need a strong stomach and strong conviction in the markets lately.
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