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EndGame Macro
Worth your time reading. @DiMartinoBooth doesn’t mince words about what’s at stake for Fed independence…
“Generations of mission creep had led the Committee, not the Board, astray. No longer was monetary policy conducted to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, the public interest.’”
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Worth your time reading. @DiMartinoBooth doesn’t mince words about what’s at stake for Fed independence…
“Generations of mission creep had led the Committee, not the Board, astray. No longer was monetary policy conducted to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, the public interest.’”
The Weekly Quill — OPEN LETTER to The Federal Open Market Committee on behalf of Every Hardworking American Who Wakes Up in the Morning Asking Themselves What Went Wrong
https://t.co/CL8kERJVDP
#federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/2Zv6pdRqHn tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Cleo Fields just filed purchases of up to $500K of Netflix stock, $NFLX https://t.co/9xh3B6qF9M
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JUST IN: Representative Cleo Fields just filed purchases of up to $500K of Netflix stock, $NFLX https://t.co/9xh3B6qF9M
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EndGame Macro
Card Limits, BNPL Lifelines And The Real Consumer Pulse
The picture here isn’t dramatic, but it’s meaningful. Total card spending didn’t fall off a cliff it just flattened out in November. And that matters because momentum is what usually signals the tone of the consumer. The blue bars (month to month changes) are not pushing higher anymore, while the red line (year over year) is holding up but no longer climbing. That combination usually shows up when people are still spending, but they’re getting more careful about how they spend.
Why Card Spending Softened
The real reason isn’t mysterious. Prices aren’t rising as fast, households are adjusting to higher costs elsewhere in rent, insurance, student loans and discretionary budgets feel thinner. And for a meaningful share of households, it may also be about capacity: maxed out cards, shrinking credit lines, or banks tightening standards. When people flatten their card usage, it’s often not because they stop buying; it’s because they start swapping to cheaper versions of the same habits or because they simply can’t put any more on the card. You still get the groceries, you just pick the cheaper options. You still shop in November, but you stretch the dollars differently.
How BNPL Fits the Story
And this is where Buy Now, Pay Later fills in the missing piece. November saw BNPL usage jump over $10 billion in online spend, up sharply from last year. Black Friday and Cyber Monday even crossed the $1 billion mark in a single day. That’s not a sign of exuberance. It’s a sign of people managing cash flow. For some, BNPL is a budgeting tool; for others, it’s a workaround when credit cards are tapped out and traditional credit won’t stretch any further. When the budget feels tight or the credit limits are hit, BNPL becomes the pressure valve: a way to keep participating without taking the full hit upfront.
The Bigger Message
Put the two together and the signal gets clearer. Card spending going sideways, BNPL ramping…that’s the behavior of a consumer who’s still engaged but stretched. Not collapsing, not thriving. Just trying to make the month work. And in a late cycle economy, that quiet shift says more about where things are headed than any headline retail number you’ll see.
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Card Limits, BNPL Lifelines And The Real Consumer Pulse
The picture here isn’t dramatic, but it’s meaningful. Total card spending didn’t fall off a cliff it just flattened out in November. And that matters because momentum is what usually signals the tone of the consumer. The blue bars (month to month changes) are not pushing higher anymore, while the red line (year over year) is holding up but no longer climbing. That combination usually shows up when people are still spending, but they’re getting more careful about how they spend.
Why Card Spending Softened
The real reason isn’t mysterious. Prices aren’t rising as fast, households are adjusting to higher costs elsewhere in rent, insurance, student loans and discretionary budgets feel thinner. And for a meaningful share of households, it may also be about capacity: maxed out cards, shrinking credit lines, or banks tightening standards. When people flatten their card usage, it’s often not because they stop buying; it’s because they start swapping to cheaper versions of the same habits or because they simply can’t put any more on the card. You still get the groceries, you just pick the cheaper options. You still shop in November, but you stretch the dollars differently.
How BNPL Fits the Story
And this is where Buy Now, Pay Later fills in the missing piece. November saw BNPL usage jump over $10 billion in online spend, up sharply from last year. Black Friday and Cyber Monday even crossed the $1 billion mark in a single day. That’s not a sign of exuberance. It’s a sign of people managing cash flow. For some, BNPL is a budgeting tool; for others, it’s a workaround when credit cards are tapped out and traditional credit won’t stretch any further. When the budget feels tight or the credit limits are hit, BNPL becomes the pressure valve: a way to keep participating without taking the full hit upfront.
The Bigger Message
Put the two together and the signal gets clearer. Card spending going sideways, BNPL ramping…that’s the behavior of a consumer who’s still engaged but stretched. Not collapsing, not thriving. Just trying to make the month work. And in a late cycle economy, that quiet shift says more about where things are headed than any headline retail number you’ll see.
"Total card spending was flat MoM in November" - BofA credit and debit card data 💳 https://t.co/hBQhI5cb2y tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
UPDATE
In 2023, we posted this report on a purchase of $TCMD filed by Senator Tina Smith.
It’s a medical devices company. Senator Smith is on the Senate Committee on Health.
$TCMD has now risen 185% since then. https://t.co/ZHcdCn4Sgg
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UPDATE
In 2023, we posted this report on a purchase of $TCMD filed by Senator Tina Smith.
It’s a medical devices company. Senator Smith is on the Senate Committee on Health.
$TCMD has now risen 185% since then. https://t.co/ZHcdCn4Sgg
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$AMZN trades <15x NTM OCF — historically a very attractive risk/reward setup
Next two years of OCF Per Share Est:
2026 ➡️ $17.35
2027 ➡️ $21.01
CAGR at various multiples assuming 2027 OCF at $18.91 (-10% vs current estimates)👇🏽
18x | 20.7%
17x | 17.2%
16x | 13.8%
15x | 10.3% https://t.co/Ztz8VIoxO9
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$AMZN trades <15x NTM OCF — historically a very attractive risk/reward setup
Next two years of OCF Per Share Est:
2026 ➡️ $17.35
2027 ➡️ $21.01
CAGR at various multiples assuming 2027 OCF at $18.91 (-10% vs current estimates)👇🏽
18x | 20.7%
17x | 17.2%
16x | 13.8%
15x | 10.3% https://t.co/Ztz8VIoxO9
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Seth Magaziner has signed Rep. Luna's discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/1FYzKGbkr0
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JUST IN: Representative Seth Magaziner has signed Rep. Luna's discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/1FYzKGbkr0
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EndGame Macro
The SOFR Strip Wants A Soft Landing But Reality Isn’t Cooperating
This chart is just the SOFR strip, a run of 3 month futures that tell you where the market thinks short term policy rates are headed. When the lines move higher, the market is pricing more cuts. When they sag, cuts get pulled out of the outlook.
What stands out is how tightly the contracts move together. Even the further out maturities, the ones that should reflect some sense of steady state neutral are still whipping around like they’re tied to the same emotional anchor. That tells you the market doesn’t really believe it knows the new neutral rate. Everything is still trading off one question…can the Fed actually cut without stirring inflation back up?
The Quiet Message Inside the Noise
If you look at where the strip settles, it’s not calling for some dramatic return to zero rates. The implied levels sit in the low 3s, a world where inflation never truly goes back to the pre COVID regime, but growth slows just enough for the Fed to ease. It’s the middle path outcome everyone claims to want, but it’s also the most fragile one.
And that’s the part the chart gives away. These contracts are priced for a very orderly transition where inflation drifts down, growth softens but doesn’t break, and the Fed trims rates without losing credibility. There’s no space in these prices for a messy outcome on either side, not a stubborn inflation backdrop, and not a credit accident.
My Read
To me, the setup feels asymmetric. If inflation sticks or wages won’t cool, these futures are too high. If the credit stories we’ve been tracking with consumer strain, CRE refinancing, the 2026 debt wall spill into employment, then the strip can jump higher in a hurry because it’s only priced for gentle easing, not a real downturn.
So the chart ends up being less about the exact levels and more about the mood of the market. It’s a curve trying to believe in a soft landing, even though the world underneath it hasn’t earned one yet.
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The SOFR Strip Wants A Soft Landing But Reality Isn’t Cooperating
This chart is just the SOFR strip, a run of 3 month futures that tell you where the market thinks short term policy rates are headed. When the lines move higher, the market is pricing more cuts. When they sag, cuts get pulled out of the outlook.
What stands out is how tightly the contracts move together. Even the further out maturities, the ones that should reflect some sense of steady state neutral are still whipping around like they’re tied to the same emotional anchor. That tells you the market doesn’t really believe it knows the new neutral rate. Everything is still trading off one question…can the Fed actually cut without stirring inflation back up?
The Quiet Message Inside the Noise
If you look at where the strip settles, it’s not calling for some dramatic return to zero rates. The implied levels sit in the low 3s, a world where inflation never truly goes back to the pre COVID regime, but growth slows just enough for the Fed to ease. It’s the middle path outcome everyone claims to want, but it’s also the most fragile one.
And that’s the part the chart gives away. These contracts are priced for a very orderly transition where inflation drifts down, growth softens but doesn’t break, and the Fed trims rates without losing credibility. There’s no space in these prices for a messy outcome on either side, not a stubborn inflation backdrop, and not a credit accident.
My Read
To me, the setup feels asymmetric. If inflation sticks or wages won’t cool, these futures are too high. If the credit stories we’ve been tracking with consumer strain, CRE refinancing, the 2026 debt wall spill into employment, then the strip can jump higher in a hurry because it’s only priced for gentle easing, not a real downturn.
So the chart ends up being less about the exact levels and more about the mood of the market. It’s a curve trying to believe in a soft landing, even though the world underneath it hasn’t earned one yet.
It is amazing how much SOFR futures are pricing out cuts in a 2% inflation floor regime. Y'all have read Steve Miran's SEP, know that Kevin Hassett is still leading candidate for the chair and Lisa Cook's case is before SCOTUS soon? https://t.co/HHkrvic5c4 tweet