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WealthyReadings
I published a new write up on the two best opportunities on the sportswear industry today.
The fundamentals, reasons for appreciations and how to capitalize on them.
Already bought shares in one.
$ONON $LULU https://t.co/LcQC8Ydx2d
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I published a new write up on the two best opportunities on the sportswear industry today.
The fundamentals, reasons for appreciations and how to capitalize on them.
Already bought shares in one.
$ONON $LULU https://t.co/LcQC8Ydx2d
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Carvana stock has now risen 10,000% since we posted this.
10,000%
In 3 years.
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Carvana stock has now risen 10,000% since we posted this.
10,000%
In 3 years.
Carvana going bankrupt? Insiders don't think so
They've bought more than $663 million in $CVNA shares over the past year https://t.co/xRUSoJPUQh tweet
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Fiscal.ai
Remitly just said that by 2028 it expects:
$2.6B-$3B in Revenue
$575M-$600M in Adj. EBITDA
The company currently has an enterprise value of $2.6 billion.
$RELY https://t.co/TFBnGiR7F4
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Remitly just said that by 2028 it expects:
$2.6B-$3B in Revenue
$575M-$600M in Adj. EBITDA
The company currently has an enterprise value of $2.6 billion.
$RELY https://t.co/TFBnGiR7F4
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WealthyReadings
The next big wave of returns in AI will come from new narratives. I believe two mainly.
Companies pushing compute forward. Not "more" compute, better compute. Optimized compute notably in term of energy consumption, which will be achieved by reducing bottlenecks.
Companies actually leveraging AI to deliver value. Right now, we barely have any. Image generation is impressive but it was never something people were actively asking for. We’ve seen improvements in ads and some automation, but that’s nothing compared to what's coming.
Finding those handful names will be enough to beat the market by a wide margin over the next decade.
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The next big wave of returns in AI will come from new narratives. I believe two mainly.
Companies pushing compute forward. Not "more" compute, better compute. Optimized compute notably in term of energy consumption, which will be achieved by reducing bottlenecks.
Companies actually leveraging AI to deliver value. Right now, we barely have any. Image generation is impressive but it was never something people were actively asking for. We’ve seen improvements in ads and some automation, but that’s nothing compared to what's coming.
Finding those handful names will be enough to beat the market by a wide margin over the next decade.
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App Economy Insights
Global MAUs in November:
• ChatGPT: 810M (+7M)
• Gemini: 346M (+20M)
• Others: 302M (-9M)
Will ChatGPT and Gemini lines ever cross? https://t.co/21KP6k5vuY
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Global MAUs in November:
• ChatGPT: 810M (+7M)
• Gemini: 346M (+20M)
• Others: 302M (-9M)
Will ChatGPT and Gemini lines ever cross? https://t.co/21KP6k5vuY
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AkhenOsiris
OpenAI
Wired:
OPENAI HAS ALLEGEDLY become more guarded about publishing research that highlights the potentially negative impact that AI could have on the economy, four people familiar with the matter tell WIRED.
The perceived pullback has contributed to the departure of at least two employees on OpenAI’s economic research team in recent months, according to the same four people, who spoke to WIRED on the condition of anonymity.
One of these employees, Tom Cunningham, left the company entirely in September after concluding it had become difficult to publish high-quality research, WIRED has learned. In a parting message shared internally, Cunningham wrote that the team faced a growing tension between conducting rigorous analysis and functioning as a de facto advocacy arm for OpenAI, according to sources familiar with the situation.
Cunningham declined WIRED’s request for comment.
OpenAI chief strategy officer Jason Kwon addressed these concerns in an internal memo following Cunningham’s departure. In a copy of the message obtained by WIRED, Kwon argued that OpenAI must act as a responsible leader in the AI sector and should not only raise problems with the technology, but also “build the solutions.”
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OpenAI
Wired:
OPENAI HAS ALLEGEDLY become more guarded about publishing research that highlights the potentially negative impact that AI could have on the economy, four people familiar with the matter tell WIRED.
The perceived pullback has contributed to the departure of at least two employees on OpenAI’s economic research team in recent months, according to the same four people, who spoke to WIRED on the condition of anonymity.
One of these employees, Tom Cunningham, left the company entirely in September after concluding it had become difficult to publish high-quality research, WIRED has learned. In a parting message shared internally, Cunningham wrote that the team faced a growing tension between conducting rigorous analysis and functioning as a de facto advocacy arm for OpenAI, according to sources familiar with the situation.
Cunningham declined WIRED’s request for comment.
OpenAI chief strategy officer Jason Kwon addressed these concerns in an internal memo following Cunningham’s departure. In a copy of the message obtained by WIRED, Kwon argued that OpenAI must act as a responsible leader in the AI sector and should not only raise problems with the technology, but also “build the solutions.”
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AkhenOsiris
Ads:
WPP Media, one of the world's largest ad-buying agencies, now says it expects the global advertising market to grow by 8.8% this year (excluding U.S. political advertising), up from 6% in June.
Similarly, Brian Wieser — a top advertising industry analyst — raised his U.S. forecast for 2025, projecting 11% growth for 2025 (excluding political advertising), compared to 6% in June.
WPP Media is so optimistic that is has increased its growth estimates for 2026, from the 6.1% it predicted in June to 7.1% now. In the U.S., Wieser believes the ad market will grow 8.9% next year, thanks in part to a boost in midterm political advertising spend.
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Ads:
WPP Media, one of the world's largest ad-buying agencies, now says it expects the global advertising market to grow by 8.8% this year (excluding U.S. political advertising), up from 6% in June.
Similarly, Brian Wieser — a top advertising industry analyst — raised his U.S. forecast for 2025, projecting 11% growth for 2025 (excluding political advertising), compared to 6% in June.
WPP Media is so optimistic that is has increased its growth estimates for 2026, from the 6.1% it predicted in June to 7.1% now. In the U.S., Wieser believes the ad market will grow 8.9% next year, thanks in part to a boost in midterm political advertising spend.
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AkhenOsiris
OpenAI COO Lightcap on "code red":
“I think a big part of it is really just starting to push on the rate at which we see improvement in focus areas within the models,” Lightcap said on stage at Fortune’s Brainstorm AI conference in San Francisco on Tuesday. “What you’re going to see, even starting fairly soon, will be a really exciting series of things that we release.”
Lightcap framed the code red alert as a standard practice that many businesses occasionally undertake to sharpen focus, and not an OpenAI specific action. But Lightcap acknowledged the importance of the move at OpenAI at this moment, given the growth in headcount and projects over the past couple of years.
“It’s a way of forcing company focus,” Lightcap said. “For a company that’s doing a bazillion things, it’s actually quite refreshing.”
He continued: “We will come out of it. I think what comes out of it that way will be really exciting.”
Lightcap told the audience that the company was focused on pushing enterprise adoption of AI tools. He said OpenAI was developing two main levels of enterprise products: user-focused solutions like ChatGPT, which boost team productivity, and lower-level APIs for developers to build custom applications. However, he noted the company currently lacks offerings in the middle tier, such as tools are user-directed but also have deep integration into enterprise systems, like AI coding assistants that employees can direct while tapping into the organization’s code bases. He said the company was also prioritizing further investments to enable enterprises to tackle longer-term, complex tasks using AI.
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OpenAI COO Lightcap on "code red":
“I think a big part of it is really just starting to push on the rate at which we see improvement in focus areas within the models,” Lightcap said on stage at Fortune’s Brainstorm AI conference in San Francisco on Tuesday. “What you’re going to see, even starting fairly soon, will be a really exciting series of things that we release.”
Lightcap framed the code red alert as a standard practice that many businesses occasionally undertake to sharpen focus, and not an OpenAI specific action. But Lightcap acknowledged the importance of the move at OpenAI at this moment, given the growth in headcount and projects over the past couple of years.
“It’s a way of forcing company focus,” Lightcap said. “For a company that’s doing a bazillion things, it’s actually quite refreshing.”
He continued: “We will come out of it. I think what comes out of it that way will be really exciting.”
Lightcap told the audience that the company was focused on pushing enterprise adoption of AI tools. He said OpenAI was developing two main levels of enterprise products: user-focused solutions like ChatGPT, which boost team productivity, and lower-level APIs for developers to build custom applications. However, he noted the company currently lacks offerings in the middle tier, such as tools are user-directed but also have deep integration into enterprise systems, like AI coding assistants that employees can direct while tapping into the organization’s code bases. He said the company was also prioritizing further investments to enable enterprises to tackle longer-term, complex tasks using AI.
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Are Companies Using AI as Cover for Economic Layoffs?
I’d love to know how many layoffs are being blamed on AI when the real driver is economic pressure. In my opinion the narrative has to stay alive because just four AI centric stocks including Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Broadcom have made up about 60% of the S&P’s gains this year, with Nvidia alone driving roughly a quarter of it. That’s how delicate the market really is right now. If the AI story hits a wall, you’re not just losing a narrative you’re pulling the support beam out from under trillions in market cap.
Now imagine you’re a big company staring at slowing revenue, higher funding costs, or consumer weakness. You need to cut jobs. If you say the economy forced our hand, you risk sending the wrong message to investors and hurting your own stock. But if they say they’re restructuring for the AI era, suddenly it sounds strategic, forward leaning, and shareholder friendly even if the actual AI footprint is tiny compared to the scale of the layoffs.
And the kicker is many of these same corporations through pension plans, treasury operations, or stock based comp are heavily invested in the very AI names that are propping up the market. So when their core business is under pressure, it’s incredibly convenient to attribute cuts to AI transformation rather than economic deterioration. Blaming AI protects the narrative that is driving their investment gains. Blaming the economy risks undermining the only part of the market that’s still working for them.
What do you guys think?
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Are Companies Using AI as Cover for Economic Layoffs?
I’d love to know how many layoffs are being blamed on AI when the real driver is economic pressure. In my opinion the narrative has to stay alive because just four AI centric stocks including Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Broadcom have made up about 60% of the S&P’s gains this year, with Nvidia alone driving roughly a quarter of it. That’s how delicate the market really is right now. If the AI story hits a wall, you’re not just losing a narrative you’re pulling the support beam out from under trillions in market cap.
Now imagine you’re a big company staring at slowing revenue, higher funding costs, or consumer weakness. You need to cut jobs. If you say the economy forced our hand, you risk sending the wrong message to investors and hurting your own stock. But if they say they’re restructuring for the AI era, suddenly it sounds strategic, forward leaning, and shareholder friendly even if the actual AI footprint is tiny compared to the scale of the layoffs.
And the kicker is many of these same corporations through pension plans, treasury operations, or stock based comp are heavily invested in the very AI names that are propping up the market. So when their core business is under pressure, it’s incredibly convenient to attribute cuts to AI transformation rather than economic deterioration. Blaming AI protects the narrative that is driving their investment gains. Blaming the economy risks undermining the only part of the market that’s still working for them.
What do you guys think?
tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
Are Companies Using AI as Cover for Economic Layoffs?
I’d love to know how many layoffs are being blamed on AI when the real driver is economic pressure. In my opinion the narrative has to stay alive because just four AI centric stocks including Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Broadcom have made up about 60% of the S&P’s gains this year, with Nvidia alone driving roughly a quarter of it. That’s how delicate the market really is right now. If the AI story hits a wall, you’re not just losing a narrative you’re pulling the support beam out from under trillions in market cap.
Now imagine you’re a big company staring at slowing revenue, higher funding costs, or consumer weakness. You need to cut jobs. If you say the economy forced our hand, you risk sending the wrong message to investors and hurting your own stock. But if they say they’re restructuring for the AI era, suddenly it sounds strategic, forward leaning, and shareholder friendly even if the actual AI footprint is tiny compared to the scale of the layoffs.
And the kicker is many of these same corporations through pension plans, treasury operations, or stock based comp are heavily invested in the very AI names that are propping up the market. So when their core business is under pressure, it’s incredibly convenient to attribute cuts to AI transformation rather than economic deterioration. Blaming AI protects the narrative that is driving their investment gains. Blaming the economy risks undermining the only part of the market that’s still working for them.
What do you guys think?
tweet
Are Companies Using AI as Cover for Economic Layoffs?
I’d love to know how many layoffs are being blamed on AI when the real driver is economic pressure. In my opinion the narrative has to stay alive because just four AI centric stocks including Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Broadcom have made up about 60% of the S&P’s gains this year, with Nvidia alone driving roughly a quarter of it. That’s how delicate the market really is right now. If the AI story hits a wall, you’re not just losing a narrative you’re pulling the support beam out from under trillions in market cap.
Now imagine you’re a big company staring at slowing revenue, higher funding costs, or consumer weakness. You need to cut jobs. If you say the economy forced our hand, you risk sending the wrong message to investors and hurting your own stock. But if they say they’re restructuring for the AI era, suddenly it sounds strategic, forward leaning, and shareholder friendly even if the actual AI footprint is tiny compared to the scale of the layoffs.
And the kicker is many of these same corporations through pension plans, treasury operations, or stock based comp are heavily invested in the very AI names that are propping up the market. So when their core business is under pressure, it’s incredibly convenient to attribute cuts to AI transformation rather than economic deterioration. Blaming AI protects the narrative that is driving their investment gains. Blaming the economy risks undermining the only part of the market that’s still working for them.
What do you guys think?
tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
The Hump That’s Hinting at a Harder Road Ahead
Forward inflation swaps are doing that classic market thing where they’re not losing faith in the long run, but they’re pricing a rougher ride getting there.
You’ve got 1y1y a bit above 3, 2y2y up in the mid 3s, and 5y5y still anchored in the mid 2s. The shape is the message. It’s basically saying inflation probably cools over time… but the next couple years won’t be smooth.
And if you layer in growth concerns alongside ongoing disinflation maybe even a brush with deflation then that hump doesn’t have to mean inflation is coming back. Often it’s the market hedging policy risk and macro messiness at the same time. Demand can weaken while certain categories stay sticky (tariffs, supply frictions, lagging services). Credit can tighten in the background. Inflation trends down, but the path is uneven and that unevenness shows up as a premium in the forwards.
The timing matters too. With a 25 bp cut expected tomorrow, swaps ticking up into the meeting can be partly macro, partly mechanics. People don’t want to be positioned for a clean mission accomplished story if the Fed signals it’s cutting because the economy is bending.
My Read On What’s Driving It
If I had to rank it…
• Most likely…it’s path and policy uncertainty, the market saying the destination is lower inflation, but the next 1–3 years could be messy.
• Next…structural stickiness (tariffs, services, fiscal/geopolitical frictions) keeping the middle of the curve noisy even as inflation cools.
• Also in the mix…flows and hedging into a major Fed decision in a post‑QT setup.
The Foreshadowing
This points to a stop and go easing cycle not because the Fed wants drama, but because the economy is forcing their hand in stages. Think…cut, reassess, cut again as weakness shows up, then move more cautiously not because they’re done, but because the data is laggy and the cycle is hard to read in real time.
And honestly, the backdrop matters here with the refinancing wall, rising delinquencies, and growing default pressure make a true pause and relax posture harder to sustain. Even if the Fed varies the pace, the gravitational pull is still toward more easing.
The real tell remains 5y5y, just viewed through the right lens…
• If it stays steady, it’s the market saying long run expectations are holding.
• If it slips, that’s the growth and disinflation scare getting louder.
• If it rises, that’s the market testing credibility.
Either way, the next chapter probably won’t be linear. It’s going to be about judgment. because the economy can cool into something weaker even while a few stubborn price pressures refuse to fully let go.
tweet
The Hump That’s Hinting at a Harder Road Ahead
Forward inflation swaps are doing that classic market thing where they’re not losing faith in the long run, but they’re pricing a rougher ride getting there.
You’ve got 1y1y a bit above 3, 2y2y up in the mid 3s, and 5y5y still anchored in the mid 2s. The shape is the message. It’s basically saying inflation probably cools over time… but the next couple years won’t be smooth.
And if you layer in growth concerns alongside ongoing disinflation maybe even a brush with deflation then that hump doesn’t have to mean inflation is coming back. Often it’s the market hedging policy risk and macro messiness at the same time. Demand can weaken while certain categories stay sticky (tariffs, supply frictions, lagging services). Credit can tighten in the background. Inflation trends down, but the path is uneven and that unevenness shows up as a premium in the forwards.
The timing matters too. With a 25 bp cut expected tomorrow, swaps ticking up into the meeting can be partly macro, partly mechanics. People don’t want to be positioned for a clean mission accomplished story if the Fed signals it’s cutting because the economy is bending.
My Read On What’s Driving It
If I had to rank it…
• Most likely…it’s path and policy uncertainty, the market saying the destination is lower inflation, but the next 1–3 years could be messy.
• Next…structural stickiness (tariffs, services, fiscal/geopolitical frictions) keeping the middle of the curve noisy even as inflation cools.
• Also in the mix…flows and hedging into a major Fed decision in a post‑QT setup.
The Foreshadowing
This points to a stop and go easing cycle not because the Fed wants drama, but because the economy is forcing their hand in stages. Think…cut, reassess, cut again as weakness shows up, then move more cautiously not because they’re done, but because the data is laggy and the cycle is hard to read in real time.
And honestly, the backdrop matters here with the refinancing wall, rising delinquencies, and growing default pressure make a true pause and relax posture harder to sustain. Even if the Fed varies the pace, the gravitational pull is still toward more easing.
The real tell remains 5y5y, just viewed through the right lens…
• If it stays steady, it’s the market saying long run expectations are holding.
• If it slips, that’s the growth and disinflation scare getting louder.
• If it rises, that’s the market testing credibility.
Either way, the next chapter probably won’t be linear. It’s going to be about judgment. because the economy can cool into something weaker even while a few stubborn price pressures refuse to fully let go.
Swaps stirring https://t.co/Cp7u1ZSA7b tweet