AkhenOsiris
$GENI post Investor Day
BTIG reit Buy, $16:
The sports data and technology company presented its evolution from a rights-driven enterprise to a foundational technology layer for the sports ecosystem, with its Genius IQ platform expected to expand its distribution footprint by approximately 135%.
Genius Sports provided guidance for $300 million in advertising revenue by 2028, implying a greater than 30% top-line compound annual growth rate, with its high-margin self-serve advertising business expected to generate 80% of incremental Media dollars and approximately 50% of incremental EBITDA.
The company’s betting business appears positioned to maintain 20%-30% growth with upcoming March Madness contributions and renewals expected in 2026, according to BTIG’s analysis of the presentation.
BTIG noted that cost guidance from Genius Sports seems conservative based on their understanding of data rights cost trends, and they expect the market to reward the company for improving medium-term visibility and higher projected GAAP profits and free cash flow.
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$GENI post Investor Day
BTIG reit Buy, $16:
The sports data and technology company presented its evolution from a rights-driven enterprise to a foundational technology layer for the sports ecosystem, with its Genius IQ platform expected to expand its distribution footprint by approximately 135%.
Genius Sports provided guidance for $300 million in advertising revenue by 2028, implying a greater than 30% top-line compound annual growth rate, with its high-margin self-serve advertising business expected to generate 80% of incremental Media dollars and approximately 50% of incremental EBITDA.
The company’s betting business appears positioned to maintain 20%-30% growth with upcoming March Madness contributions and renewals expected in 2026, according to BTIG’s analysis of the presentation.
BTIG noted that cost guidance from Genius Sports seems conservative based on their understanding of data rights cost trends, and they expect the market to reward the company for improving medium-term visibility and higher projected GAAP profits and free cash flow.
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AkhenOsiris
$GENI Post Investor Day
Citizens reit Outperform, raised target to $17 from $15.
The firm projects Genius Sports will generate $12 million in free cash flow (FCF) in 2025, representing a 9% conversion rate, following several years of investment in costs and capital expenditures that now position the company to benefit financially.
Genius Sports has guided to 60% FCF conversion by 2028, which would indicate approximately $220 million in FCF according to company estimates, suggesting that incremental revenue will now flow through to the bottom line after being previously held back by investments.
Citizens noted that this FCF conversion target aligns with Genius Sports’ main competitor Sportradar, which has guided to a similar medium-term target, potentially validating the outlook for both companies given their similar business models.
The firm updated its estimates to reflect a 2024 to 2027 revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% and EBITDA CAGR of 44%, indicating that at current levels the stock trades at 10.6x Citizens’ 2027 EBITDA estimate, which it considers a significant discount to data analytics comparables.
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$GENI Post Investor Day
Citizens reit Outperform, raised target to $17 from $15.
The firm projects Genius Sports will generate $12 million in free cash flow (FCF) in 2025, representing a 9% conversion rate, following several years of investment in costs and capital expenditures that now position the company to benefit financially.
Genius Sports has guided to 60% FCF conversion by 2028, which would indicate approximately $220 million in FCF according to company estimates, suggesting that incremental revenue will now flow through to the bottom line after being previously held back by investments.
Citizens noted that this FCF conversion target aligns with Genius Sports’ main competitor Sportradar, which has guided to a similar medium-term target, potentially validating the outlook for both companies given their similar business models.
The firm updated its estimates to reflect a 2024 to 2027 revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% and EBITDA CAGR of 44%, indicating that at current levels the stock trades at 10.6x Citizens’ 2027 EBITDA estimate, which it considers a significant discount to data analytics comparables.
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AkhenOsiris
$GENI Post Investor Day
Goldman reit Buy, target raised to $16 from $14.
Genius Sports' Investor Day highlighted the company's expanding data and technology platform, multiple monetization avenues, and above-expected 2028 financial targets that point to sustained revenue growth, margin expansion, and improving free cash flow, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The event underscored the company's strong positioning amid secular industry tailwinds, its increasing cost-structure visibility, its durable technology-led competitive advantage, and its growing financial flexibility, Goldman says.
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$GENI Post Investor Day
Goldman reit Buy, target raised to $16 from $14.
Genius Sports' Investor Day highlighted the company's expanding data and technology platform, multiple monetization avenues, and above-expected 2028 financial targets that point to sustained revenue growth, margin expansion, and improving free cash flow, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The event underscored the company's strong positioning amid secular industry tailwinds, its increasing cost-structure visibility, its durable technology-led competitive advantage, and its growing financial flexibility, Goldman says.
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WealthyReadings
$TMDX is once again the best buy in the market.
Great and improving fundamentals.
Multiple growth levers until FY30.
Reasonable valuation at $130.
Perfect breakout & retest PA.
This is the #1 set up short, medium & long term, and the many articles in my bio will detail this to you with perfect clarity.
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$TMDX is once again the best buy in the market.
Great and improving fundamentals.
Multiple growth levers until FY30.
Reasonable valuation at $130.
Perfect breakout & retest PA.
This is the #1 set up short, medium & long term, and the many articles in my bio will detail this to you with perfect clarity.
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Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Fiserv's CFO just purchased $1.06 million worth of shares.
The stock is currently trading at its cheapest multiple in more than a decade.
$FISV https://t.co/NiOy6uUMKo
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Fiserv's CFO just purchased $1.06 million worth of shares.
The stock is currently trading at its cheapest multiple in more than a decade.
$FISV https://t.co/NiOy6uUMKo
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
$META Reality check for the Metaverse. 🥽
Zuck is reportedly planning to cut Metaverse spending by up to 30%.
Reality Labs has lost >$70B since 2021.
The new priority? Smart glasses & AI. 🤖 https://t.co/p2CrHgSkXY
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$META Reality check for the Metaverse. 🥽
Zuck is reportedly planning to cut Metaverse spending by up to 30%.
Reality Labs has lost >$70B since 2021.
The new priority? Smart glasses & AI. 🤖 https://t.co/p2CrHgSkXY
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