Wasteland Capital
I was reading some research today and was blown away by the lack of ability by these analysts to identify what’s important.
Endless words and data. Zero insights.
Yet insight is all that matters.
And any insight can be expressed in a paragraph or two, a chart, or both.
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I was reading some research today and was blown away by the lack of ability by these analysts to identify what’s important.
Endless words and data. Zero insights.
Yet insight is all that matters.
And any insight can be expressed in a paragraph or two, a chart, or both.
tweet
Offshore
Video
memenodes
When she finds out you don’t panic about the dips, you just buy more https://t.co/WOt92fGpFv
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When she finds out you don’t panic about the dips, you just buy more https://t.co/WOt92fGpFv
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Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
OpenAI $NVDA $GOOGL
https://t.co/N7fbQNh0UB
Ben Thompson:
It’s also worth pointing out, as Eric Seufert did in a recent Stratechery Interview, that Google started monetizing Search less than two years after its public launch; it is search revenue, far more than venture capital money, that has undergirded all of Google’s innovation over the years, and is what makes them a behemoth today. In that light OpenAI’s refusal to launch and iterate an ads product for ChatGPT — now three years old — is a dereliction of business duty, particularly as the company signs deals for over a trillion dollars of compute.
And, on the flip side, it means that Google has the resources to take on ChatGPT’s consumer lead with a World War I style war of attrition; OpenAI’s lead should be unassailable, but the company’s insistence on monetizing solely via subscriptions, with a degraded user experience for most users and price elasticity challenges in terms of revenue maximization, is very much opening up the door to a company that actually cares about making money.
To put it another way, the long-term threat to Nvidia from TPUs is margin dilution; the challenge of physical products is you do have to actually charge the people who buy them, which invites potentially unfavorable comparisons to cheaper alternatives, particularly as buyers get bigger and more price sensitive. The reason to be more optimistic about OpenAI is that an advertising model flips this on its head: because users don’t pay, there is no ceiling on how much you can make from them, which, by extension, means that the bigger you get the better your margins have the potential to be, and thus the total size of your investments. Again, however, the problem is that the advertising model doesn’t yet exist.
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OpenAI $NVDA $GOOGL
https://t.co/N7fbQNh0UB
Ben Thompson:
It’s also worth pointing out, as Eric Seufert did in a recent Stratechery Interview, that Google started monetizing Search less than two years after its public launch; it is search revenue, far more than venture capital money, that has undergirded all of Google’s innovation over the years, and is what makes them a behemoth today. In that light OpenAI’s refusal to launch and iterate an ads product for ChatGPT — now three years old — is a dereliction of business duty, particularly as the company signs deals for over a trillion dollars of compute.
And, on the flip side, it means that Google has the resources to take on ChatGPT’s consumer lead with a World War I style war of attrition; OpenAI’s lead should be unassailable, but the company’s insistence on monetizing solely via subscriptions, with a degraded user experience for most users and price elasticity challenges in terms of revenue maximization, is very much opening up the door to a company that actually cares about making money.
To put it another way, the long-term threat to Nvidia from TPUs is margin dilution; the challenge of physical products is you do have to actually charge the people who buy them, which invites potentially unfavorable comparisons to cheaper alternatives, particularly as buyers get bigger and more price sensitive. The reason to be more optimistic about OpenAI is that an advertising model flips this on its head: because users don’t pay, there is no ceiling on how much you can make from them, which, by extension, means that the bigger you get the better your margins have the potential to be, and thus the total size of your investments. Again, however, the problem is that the advertising model doesn’t yet exist.
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN
Amazon’s AI chatbot, Rufus, saw a surge of adoption on Black Friday, according to new data published over the weekend by market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. In the U.S., Amazon sessions that resulted in a purchase surged 100% on Black Friday compared with the trailing 30 days, while sessions that resulted in a purchase and didn’t include Rufus increased by only 20%.
In addition, Amazon saw a 75% day-over-day increase for sessions that included Rufus and resulted in a purchase, compared with just a 35% day-over-day increase for sessions without Rufus that had resulted in a purchase.
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$AMZN
Amazon’s AI chatbot, Rufus, saw a surge of adoption on Black Friday, according to new data published over the weekend by market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. In the U.S., Amazon sessions that resulted in a purchase surged 100% on Black Friday compared with the trailing 30 days, while sessions that resulted in a purchase and didn’t include Rufus increased by only 20%.
In addition, Amazon saw a 75% day-over-day increase for sessions that included Rufus and resulted in a purchase, compared with just a 35% day-over-day increase for sessions without Rufus that had resulted in a purchase.
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN
The firm also noted that Amazon sessions that involved the AI chatbot outpaced total website sessions.
On Black Friday, Amazon’s total website sessions increased by 20% day over day, while those that involved Rufus were up by 35%.
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$AMZN
The firm also noted that Amazon sessions that involved the AI chatbot outpaced total website sessions.
On Black Friday, Amazon’s total website sessions increased by 20% day over day, while those that involved Rufus were up by 35%.
$AMZN
Amazon’s AI chatbot, Rufus, saw a surge of adoption on Black Friday, according to new data published over the weekend by market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. In the U.S., Amazon sessions that resulted in a purchase surged 100% on Black Friday compared with the trailing 30 days, while sessions that resulted in a purchase and didn’t include Rufus increased by only 20%.
In addition, Amazon saw a 75% day-over-day increase for sessions that included Rufus and resulted in a purchase, compared with just a 35% day-over-day increase for sessions without Rufus that had resulted in a purchase. tweet
AkhenOsiris
No surprise but good to know that the guys poring over the books agree that CNN is indeed a 0
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No surprise but good to know that the guys poring over the books agree that CNN is indeed a 0
BREAKING: Bidders on @wbd say the board has really warmed to a @netflix offer (kudos to Steve Sunshine) for a lot of reasons including the chemistry between Zas and Sarandos but are worried about the regulatory hurdles, as I reported today in the @nypost, including a 2-year slog through Trump DOJ antitrust, EU exams even before this even gets to court. Other thing I picked up is that the value of the $WBD cable properties ie @CNN are considered pretty di minimis in the context of the entire transaction tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
RT @onechancefreedm: Japan’s 10 Year Is Ringing An Alarm Bell And Here’s What It Really Means
Japan’s 10 year yield pushing toward 1.9% in Japan is a seismic shift. For the better part of 30 years, that bond wasn’t a market instrument, it was a policy prop. The BoJ pinned it near zero, bought most of the market, and treated the yield as more of a message than a price.
Now it’s acting like a real bond again. And this sudden climb is the market saying you can’t hold back the tide forever.
Inflation has stuck around. Japan’s debt load is enormous. And with the BoJ stepping back from yield curve control, investors are finally demanding something closer to a real return. The whole curve 2 year, 5 year, 10 year, 30 year is lifting in a way Japan hasn’t seen since before the global financial crisis.
This isn’t a clean normalization story. It’s the market testing how far Japan can walk away from three decades of emergency style policy before something snaps.
What Happens If the Global Cycle Breaks?
Here’s the critical part no one wants to talk about: this shift only holds if the world stays afloat.
If the global economy rolls over into a real recession or worse, a deflationary shock…Japan will blink first. No country is more scarred by deflation. If growth cracks, trade slows, and global prices fall, the BoJ won’t sit back and watch yields drift upward while the domestic economy sinks.
They’ll push rates back toward the floor. They’ll revive bond buying. They may not bring back the old, rigid yield caps, but they’ll throw enough tools at the curve to keep borrowing costs from choking the system.
The difference this time is they know the side effects with broken bond liquidity, weak banks, a perpetually soft yen that can become a liability if import costs spike. So the rescue will be messier, more improvised, but still inevitable.
The Real Message Behind the Move
So today’s 10 year spike isn’t Japan saying they love high rates now. It’s the market asking how long can you sustain this without breaking something?
If the global cycle holds up, Japan is inching back toward positive rates after 30 years underwater. If the cycle cracks, this move reverses fast, and the BoJ returns to its old instinct of cutting hard, stabilize the curve, fight deflation at all costs.
That’s the real takeaway…Japan is trying to leave the zero rate world behind, but the exit ramp is narrow. One global downturn, and they’re right back in the old playbook.
tweet
RT @onechancefreedm: Japan’s 10 Year Is Ringing An Alarm Bell And Here’s What It Really Means
Japan’s 10 year yield pushing toward 1.9% in Japan is a seismic shift. For the better part of 30 years, that bond wasn’t a market instrument, it was a policy prop. The BoJ pinned it near zero, bought most of the market, and treated the yield as more of a message than a price.
Now it’s acting like a real bond again. And this sudden climb is the market saying you can’t hold back the tide forever.
Inflation has stuck around. Japan’s debt load is enormous. And with the BoJ stepping back from yield curve control, investors are finally demanding something closer to a real return. The whole curve 2 year, 5 year, 10 year, 30 year is lifting in a way Japan hasn’t seen since before the global financial crisis.
This isn’t a clean normalization story. It’s the market testing how far Japan can walk away from three decades of emergency style policy before something snaps.
What Happens If the Global Cycle Breaks?
Here’s the critical part no one wants to talk about: this shift only holds if the world stays afloat.
If the global economy rolls over into a real recession or worse, a deflationary shock…Japan will blink first. No country is more scarred by deflation. If growth cracks, trade slows, and global prices fall, the BoJ won’t sit back and watch yields drift upward while the domestic economy sinks.
They’ll push rates back toward the floor. They’ll revive bond buying. They may not bring back the old, rigid yield caps, but they’ll throw enough tools at the curve to keep borrowing costs from choking the system.
The difference this time is they know the side effects with broken bond liquidity, weak banks, a perpetually soft yen that can become a liability if import costs spike. So the rescue will be messier, more improvised, but still inevitable.
The Real Message Behind the Move
So today’s 10 year spike isn’t Japan saying they love high rates now. It’s the market asking how long can you sustain this without breaking something?
If the global cycle holds up, Japan is inching back toward positive rates after 30 years underwater. If the cycle cracks, this move reverses fast, and the BoJ returns to its old instinct of cutting hard, stabilize the curve, fight deflation at all costs.
That’s the real takeaway…Japan is trying to leave the zero rate world behind, but the exit ramp is narrow. One global downturn, and they’re right back in the old playbook.
BREAKING: Japan's 10Y Government Bond Yield surges to 1.84%, its highest level since April 2008.
This chart is concerning to say the least. https://t.co/fBkMMyBnqy tweet